Richard Heinberg?

[cowman]

In the last edition of the Western Producer there was an article titled "Farms Change as Oil Dries Up, Says Author"?
It was a report about a speech Richard Heinberg gave to the NFU convention.
Now talk about your wingding, out of this world, dreamers!
He thinks in the "near" future America will require 40 to 50 million farmers moving back out into the countryside to replace the tractors, combines, trucks etc.? He says we will be doing agriculture like our great grandfathers did...or maybe worse! He said we will be replacing machinery power with muscle power!
Do you ever wonder why the NFU are so out to lunch? Not hard to see when they get some kook like this to speak at their conventions?
This would be so funny if it wasn't so sad that some people actually believe this drivel!

[coppertop]

Come on cowman, surely a good old farm boy like you can handle a team of horses....!!! LOL.

[farmers_son]

Anyone interested can read the article at:

http://www.producer.com/free/editorial/news.php?iss=2006-12-21&sec=news&sto=44

I think it is reasonable to expect that oil will run out in the foreseeable future. It is a finite resource, it is going to be gone someday. I would like to think I will live long enough to see it happen but there is absolutely no doubt that within my children’s lifetime the oil will at least so depleted and so scarce that it will not be burned for energy.

What will happen then? This fellow suggests that people will have to return to farming as it was in the horse and buggy days. I do not know if that makes him a kook. However I think there have been some technological breakthroughs since the early 1900s that make other forms of energy available.

I tend to think the next energy source will be water. I recall watching the rivers during the 2005 floods and marveling at the energy and the power that was present. Of course we have harvested energy from water falls for years but there are also tides and rivers.

Fossil fuels energy is really outdated technology and is only being used today because of a perceived low cost, a low cost which ignores the externalities of pollution. And although bio energy is being greeted as a salvation for agriculture bio energy does not produce any new net energy not to mention the ethical problems associated with turning food into fuel. Capturing the energy in moving water would seem to be a preferable method of meeting our energy needs.

[grassfarmer]

I wonder who the fool is Cowman.

[cowman]

Actually coppertop, I wouldn't know which end to put the harness on and have no desire to learn!
Grassfarmer: Why stop at the horse and buggy days? Why not just go back to clubbing our meat over the head? You guys make me laugh...talk about La-La land! LOL!!!

[wilagro]

cowman: I take it that you would prefer the diesel breed of horses to work with.

In the future there are many viable alternatives to petroleum. Tractors can and do run on alcohol and synthetic petroleum can be produced from coal. The Nazi's in Germany ran much of their war machines fron coal derived products.

Then there is the old steam engine...not too great to use in our cold climate but who knows, a concerted effort could probably produce a modern steamer.

As far as horses are concerned, I worked with them for about fifteen years when I was young. They don't require much maintenance and are fun to work with once trained.

Don't be too quick to label people with the "kook" designation. We wouldn't have the many advantages that we have today without the "kooks" and dreamers of yesteryear.

[grassfarmer]

Personally I think this whole ethanol deal is pretty "kook" Cowman. It's a bit like using a battery powered battery charger and thinking you've got a world beater. I laugh when you hail it as the saviour of agriculture as we know it. The plant that you talk of the Carlyle group wanting to build in Central Alberta - how much profit will it generate for primary producers? Given who the builders are I would hazard a guess of maybe $2 an acre above the cost of production. Why should they pay any more? and just think of all the taxpayers money the Government will give them - no wonder they are interested in the project.

[cowman]

Well grassfarmer $2 above production costs is better than $20 below?
The fact is these companies will take a lot of land out of food production? And I would suggest to you that is a good thing because the fact is we produce too much food in this country...especially too many cattle! Get our supply back in some kind of relationship with domestic demand and not have to rely on exports...to the US?
Of course ethanol and bio diesel aren't the end all? ...but at least they are a start? Straw, forest waste, other bio mass supplies...are all probably a lot more bang for your buck! Switchgrass might just be the best bet as it contains a natural polymer and therefore can produce bio plastic! But you really have to start somewhere?
I would think you would support something that would take land out of cattle production and allow you to make more money on your grassfed beef? And finally, whether you believe in global warming or not, these things are going to have to happen? Reducing green house gasses and pollution? That is where the world is heading.
wilagro: Of course there are a lot of different solutions out there besides horses. Personally I never had much use for horses and don't like them? In fact I think about 90% of the horses in western Canada are nothing more than worthless pets.

[grassfarmer]

Agreed on the horses,Cowman.

[coppertop]

Unfortunately many horses are purchased as pets, or because someone decided they wanted to go galloping off into the sunset...then a lot of these critters aren't cared for properly, hooves neglected etc., and don't receive proper nutrition. I hope to heck that we never have to go back to the horse and buggy days, because very few people would have a clue how to look after, harness or drive a horse !!! Now, cowman, I do know how to harness a horse, NOT because I grew up in the horse and buggy days, but because for years we had a wonderful gelding that we hooked to a cutter and gave kids rides all over the farm. I miss that today, it was really Christmas, listening to the runners in the snow and the bells on the harness ring.

I hope we can diversify agriculture to allow grain farmers to get paid a decent price for their crops, whether it is for enthanol or feed. Input costs are killing the beef industry, not the end price in my view. Utilities are out of sight along with other products necessary to raising beef.

Hope Santa was very good to each of you, and you enjoy a wonderful day with your families.

[cowman]

Well coppertop: I might suggest the end price is also the problem? The price is just too low?
I posted some numbers from 2000 and I've posted numbers from 1992? And I've posted numbers from 2006? How does anyone take a pay cut like that...and smile and say things aren't that bad?
Yes utilities are up, yes fuel is up, and yes machinery costs are up. If beef prices had stayed in relativity it wouldn't matter?
I remember in 1994(I think)there was a rising grain market? Actually higher than now? I was talking to this old boy at the auction mart who told me he thought $1 calves wasn't all that bad! I was flabberghasted that anyone would see it that way and asked him why he thought that, and where was the breakeven point on running cows? He told me he thought around 25 cents for fall calves! Said he owned all his machinery land and cattle etc. and just needed enough to pay for the bacon and beans!
It was about that time I realized I'd better pursue another line of work, because you can't compete with people who are idiots and have no clue about business!

[Horse]

I disagree on the horse thing I think it was will Rogers that said the best thing for the inside of a man is the outside of a horse ,yes they are just pets but no finer animal ever grased the earth than the horse, I took my small team out on the sleigh today and I would rather smell the backend of a horse anyday next to a diesel smoking tractor or truck.
Just My Opinion But after all thats the one that counts for me.

[cowman]

Horse: Have you been following the "horse slaughter" controversy in the USA? Where they are proposing to end the slaughter of horses?
Apparently one version of that talk will stop the trade in horses to Canada for slaughter as well?
Do you think we need a law like that here?

[coppertop]

That would effect the horse feedlots in the Fort MacLeod area ! I think they ship fats to the US for slaughter.

[Horse]

No I dont think a law like that is any good as in the US now there are ways around it. Horses are like all other livestock some are just born to be killed.some are a numbers game like when 400 show up for the sale the only home is a feedlot[ by the way horses flow into FtMacleod from the US not south]. They are still killing in Chicago and texas and I think Indiana pretty well all the meat goes to belgium france italy japan and it is not cheap Bouvery has most of the northamerican trade in slaughter . People dont like killing horses so not to many willing to start a plant and with McLeod being the largest horse killing plant in the world atsomewhere around 60,000/yr can you imagine how many horses would be standing around if they didnt have a meat market.
I have fed and sold several hundred over the yrs and never feel good when I load a liner but like I said some are just born to be ate.