Posted: Peter O'Donnell @ 01/ 09/ 06 2:50 pm
Cornering the beast
Going into tonight's debate, I have this vision of the campaign situation -- the lion has cornered the wounded beast, and the jackals are prowling around the edges of the clearing, looking for scraps.
Or perhaps if you want to add a human element, the mighty battleship is surrounded, billowing fire and smoke, and firing all of its ammunition while all hands on deck scramble around looking for the lifeboats.
If Canada has any integrity whatsoever, the voters would know by now that the national future depends on a Conservative victory, and these debates would be little more than curiosities. And perhaps it is so, because there is much talk across the land of a change in government, with some going so far as to speculate that the Conservatives are moving towards the levels of majority government.
Nevertheless, the media and the partisan talking heads (especially those employed by the Liberals) will be out in force, trying to establish expectations in advance, then spinning any minor developments of the debates into major sagas, the stuff of legends and the paintings they hang in the many corridors of power in Ottawa. Chief among these, I would wager, will be the vision of Paul Martin, visionary leader, elder statesman, saviour of national unity.
The fact that this sort of spin has now landed right next to the desk of the state's official satirists and comics tells me that Paul Martin's career in politics is on life support. He has painted himself into a corner -- the under-achiever who believes himself to be indispensable. He has tied himself to a vision of Canada which is more or less our official state ideology -- the utopian state of harmony and smiling faces. The biggest smiles, of course, have been those who got to the trough while there was still something in it. And he has chosen to campaign against ghosts, vapours and half-forgotten memories -- I'm waiting for him to come out swinging against Genghis Khan before this is all done.
Now, the fact that the New Democrats have finally "got it" after lo these many years, and have begun to take their first baby steps towards full independence from the mother Liberals, reveals that some higher principle is at work here -- the Liberal ideology is wounded, and the beast is cornered. We should not expect that it will surrender gracefully, or without considerable fury. There is that sense of entitlement to be finally destroyed, taken away from the proud animal which imagines itself to be the lord of the jungle in the long absence of lions or tigers.
The debate will probably follow that kind of script. Stephen Harper will be trying to seem reasonable, non-threatening, conciliatory, open to change, and able to make significant overtures to the disenchanted people of Quebec and western Canada without rattling Ontario's chains. One hopes that he can soar above the spittle when his opponents start up with the anti-conservative rhetoric that has begun to sound so desperate in recent weeks. Canada is essentially a rather conservative country, with this thin crust baked over the top representing cultural nationalism. It's time to break up that crust and stir the pot once again. I see this as a repeating cycle in Canada, and a task that needs to be done more frequently now that the world has moved on from Marxism, which after all is the real foundation of our official national culture, such as that is.
Jack Layton is wedged into a very tight spot. He can hardly seem like an enthusiastic junior partner for some proposed Conservative-NDP coalition, because this will seem both absurd and pathetic to his core voters, and for that matter to most other voters. Yet he must sound the chord of profound alienation from the Liberal vision, which after all was shaped from raw materials left behind by various unsuccessful New Democratic platforms of years gone by. The delicious irony of this situation is probably evident even to Jack Layton, which may explain his sombre demeanour these days. Or perhaps it's just seasonal affective disorder.
As for Gilles Duceppe, he had things pretty easy before Christmas. The general take on his campaign was that he just had to keep his heart beating, and his bus on the road, to be around on 23 janvier to collect sixty seats or more, and see the Liberals off to political oblivion. Now, though, he faces a bit of a challenge for some of his votes on the conservative-nationalist flank (he has more flanks than most), and we'll see in the French debate on Tuesday if not tonight, just how he plans to deal with that. Perhaps he is not too worried about it -- a majority Conservative government might actually be a more tempting vision to the Bloc than a minority, and the math of building a majority pretty much depends on about ten seats in Quebec for Stephen Harper. The Bloc may well figure that they can manoeuvre a fully engaged Harper government into a confrontation more easily than a minority government that might be looking their way for help.
So it has become a very complex dance indeed, with each participant wondering who to insult, who to praise with faint damns, and who to ignore. We all know, however, that the Prime Minister has one more volcanic eruption left in him before blowing his stack, and that is no doubt going to come in some over-the-top version of Captain Canada, standing up to the conservatives, separatists, westerners, businessmen, pro-Americans, provincial rights advocates, people who want modernized health care, and Christians among us, in other words, most of the ordinary folk who did not graduate from Liberal University with dishonours and go on to live in the eternal glow that attends full membership in the cult of Trudeau.
If I were Harper, I might consider taking a bathroom break if Martin goes into this performance, because it would be rather difficult to stifle a chuckle that would no doubt have the spin doctors flying off the ceilings in the spin rooms. But wouldn't you love to hear him, or even Jack Layton, ask if the man is off his medication again? I wish these things weren't so tightly scripted and overly formal, because what this country needs is a good old-fashioned rumble in the parking lot.
I don't know what the debate will be "all about," but this election is all about the future integrity of Canada, after twelve years of absolutely brutal Liberal misgovernment. If the voters don't take this chance to set the ship of state on a more promising course, we will be sailing into disaster for certain. One hopes that this paradigm will overwhelm the moment-by-moment energy flows of a debate, and convince the voters to do the right thing. But for what it's worth, I hope Harper excels tonight and Tuesday, and completes the deal.
Let's be under no illusions, though. Unless there is a palace coup going on behind the scenes and Martin is left out to dry, we can expect a furious "battle of the Bulge" sort of last stand in the final two weeks. No doubt this will put a new set of strains on national unity, because it will be a reflex to demonize Alberta, for example, and in a more subtle way "the west," in an appeal to Ontario's historic belief that it should run the ship of state. The fact is, however, that a more important paradigm is emerging in this campaign, that would trump the regional visions of the Liberals, and that is the growing sense among the voters that they need to take back the power of the ballot and teach the Liberals the primary lesson of democratic politics -- the political parties exist to serve the nation, and not the other way around. Paul Martin may never "get it," but perhaps some of his colleagues will, and this can only be good for Canada in the long run.
Cornering the beast
Going into tonight's debate, I have this vision of the campaign situation -- the lion has cornered the wounded beast, and the jackals are prowling around the edges of the clearing, looking for scraps.
Or perhaps if you want to add a human element, the mighty battleship is surrounded, billowing fire and smoke, and firing all of its ammunition while all hands on deck scramble around looking for the lifeboats.
If Canada has any integrity whatsoever, the voters would know by now that the national future depends on a Conservative victory, and these debates would be little more than curiosities. And perhaps it is so, because there is much talk across the land of a change in government, with some going so far as to speculate that the Conservatives are moving towards the levels of majority government.
Nevertheless, the media and the partisan talking heads (especially those employed by the Liberals) will be out in force, trying to establish expectations in advance, then spinning any minor developments of the debates into major sagas, the stuff of legends and the paintings they hang in the many corridors of power in Ottawa. Chief among these, I would wager, will be the vision of Paul Martin, visionary leader, elder statesman, saviour of national unity.
The fact that this sort of spin has now landed right next to the desk of the state's official satirists and comics tells me that Paul Martin's career in politics is on life support. He has painted himself into a corner -- the under-achiever who believes himself to be indispensable. He has tied himself to a vision of Canada which is more or less our official state ideology -- the utopian state of harmony and smiling faces. The biggest smiles, of course, have been those who got to the trough while there was still something in it. And he has chosen to campaign against ghosts, vapours and half-forgotten memories -- I'm waiting for him to come out swinging against Genghis Khan before this is all done.
Now, the fact that the New Democrats have finally "got it" after lo these many years, and have begun to take their first baby steps towards full independence from the mother Liberals, reveals that some higher principle is at work here -- the Liberal ideology is wounded, and the beast is cornered. We should not expect that it will surrender gracefully, or without considerable fury. There is that sense of entitlement to be finally destroyed, taken away from the proud animal which imagines itself to be the lord of the jungle in the long absence of lions or tigers.
The debate will probably follow that kind of script. Stephen Harper will be trying to seem reasonable, non-threatening, conciliatory, open to change, and able to make significant overtures to the disenchanted people of Quebec and western Canada without rattling Ontario's chains. One hopes that he can soar above the spittle when his opponents start up with the anti-conservative rhetoric that has begun to sound so desperate in recent weeks. Canada is essentially a rather conservative country, with this thin crust baked over the top representing cultural nationalism. It's time to break up that crust and stir the pot once again. I see this as a repeating cycle in Canada, and a task that needs to be done more frequently now that the world has moved on from Marxism, which after all is the real foundation of our official national culture, such as that is.
Jack Layton is wedged into a very tight spot. He can hardly seem like an enthusiastic junior partner for some proposed Conservative-NDP coalition, because this will seem both absurd and pathetic to his core voters, and for that matter to most other voters. Yet he must sound the chord of profound alienation from the Liberal vision, which after all was shaped from raw materials left behind by various unsuccessful New Democratic platforms of years gone by. The delicious irony of this situation is probably evident even to Jack Layton, which may explain his sombre demeanour these days. Or perhaps it's just seasonal affective disorder.
As for Gilles Duceppe, he had things pretty easy before Christmas. The general take on his campaign was that he just had to keep his heart beating, and his bus on the road, to be around on 23 janvier to collect sixty seats or more, and see the Liberals off to political oblivion. Now, though, he faces a bit of a challenge for some of his votes on the conservative-nationalist flank (he has more flanks than most), and we'll see in the French debate on Tuesday if not tonight, just how he plans to deal with that. Perhaps he is not too worried about it -- a majority Conservative government might actually be a more tempting vision to the Bloc than a minority, and the math of building a majority pretty much depends on about ten seats in Quebec for Stephen Harper. The Bloc may well figure that they can manoeuvre a fully engaged Harper government into a confrontation more easily than a minority government that might be looking their way for help.
So it has become a very complex dance indeed, with each participant wondering who to insult, who to praise with faint damns, and who to ignore. We all know, however, that the Prime Minister has one more volcanic eruption left in him before blowing his stack, and that is no doubt going to come in some over-the-top version of Captain Canada, standing up to the conservatives, separatists, westerners, businessmen, pro-Americans, provincial rights advocates, people who want modernized health care, and Christians among us, in other words, most of the ordinary folk who did not graduate from Liberal University with dishonours and go on to live in the eternal glow that attends full membership in the cult of Trudeau.
If I were Harper, I might consider taking a bathroom break if Martin goes into this performance, because it would be rather difficult to stifle a chuckle that would no doubt have the spin doctors flying off the ceilings in the spin rooms. But wouldn't you love to hear him, or even Jack Layton, ask if the man is off his medication again? I wish these things weren't so tightly scripted and overly formal, because what this country needs is a good old-fashioned rumble in the parking lot.
I don't know what the debate will be "all about," but this election is all about the future integrity of Canada, after twelve years of absolutely brutal Liberal misgovernment. If the voters don't take this chance to set the ship of state on a more promising course, we will be sailing into disaster for certain. One hopes that this paradigm will overwhelm the moment-by-moment energy flows of a debate, and convince the voters to do the right thing. But for what it's worth, I hope Harper excels tonight and Tuesday, and completes the deal.
Let's be under no illusions, though. Unless there is a palace coup going on behind the scenes and Martin is left out to dry, we can expect a furious "battle of the Bulge" sort of last stand in the final two weeks. No doubt this will put a new set of strains on national unity, because it will be a reflex to demonize Alberta, for example, and in a more subtle way "the west," in an appeal to Ontario's historic belief that it should run the ship of state. The fact is, however, that a more important paradigm is emerging in this campaign, that would trump the regional visions of the Liberals, and that is the growing sense among the voters that they need to take back the power of the ballot and teach the Liberals the primary lesson of democratic politics -- the political parties exist to serve the nation, and not the other way around. Paul Martin may never "get it," but perhaps some of his colleagues will, and this can only be good for Canada in the long run.
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