Cattle Appear Vulnerable

[errolanderson]

Recent events appear to be warning to the North American cash cattle market.

Pork cutout values are now collapsing.
Lean hogs off 8% alone over past week.

Cattle board now shaking. Live cattle over 8% over past two (2) weeks. Nebraska cash dropped $5/cwt yesterday.

Sizzling cow prices peaked?

[TOM4CWB]

Errol

I see the Russian sanctions disrupted the food systems pork being a market with immediate shipment displacements that must be resold at distressed value. Same for beef?

Putin is clever while Russian people pay a double penalty... Once again food is a weapon.

[rkaiser]

What are you suggesting errol, supply and demand kicking in rather than the gamblers running scared over Putin and Neten Yahoo, and our beloved Obama and their petro dollar games?

[errolanderson]

A warning was the collapse in pork cutout values. This started before Putin ban. U.S. hogs are now fed to record weights compensating for PED.

Another warning has been the general fallout in commodity prices as a whole.
ie: crude oil

Another warning is; commodity markets at historic highs never have a long price shelf-life. One pattern in commodity markets is; if prices are insanely high, rest assured, they are . . . .

The pluses are; the Cdn dollar could weaken further as the U.S. dollar strengthens.

Corn prices will be low for a very long time.

[rkaiser]

Corn prices will be lower. Of course, GMO is being challenged around the world and won't stop.

American dollar strengthening? Might be short term however this is debatable as all the phoney wars play out. Wars all based on currency and oil and encouragement of hate to make even more money for those who finance both sides.

[errolanderson]

Don't bet on the Euro going up. The last thing the struggling EU needs now is a hot Euro.

And Japan's GDP crashed 6.8% in the last quarter. The Yen isn't going anywhere, so what's left?

[mcfarms]

didnt you say this 2 months ago before they went up even more, your act is old run around to the commodity that is highest and start braying its going to go lower and eventually you can say look I was right you did the same act with grains.

[A990]

mcfarms,if you disagree with errol lets hear why. Maybe you have something to contribute. I for one appreciate errol and charlies comments.If you think he's wrong fade him and stfu

[westernvicki]

Cattle numbers are slow to rebuild and demand from China will keep this market firm, in my opinion.

You can build a sow barn or a chicken barn an increase numbers quickly. Cattle are different, entirely, the rebuild is much slower.

Last stats I saw out of the USA indicated the herd was still decreasing, however new numbers may report this different. You, see many cow folk are now near retirement age, pastureland is expensive, and many are now cashing in and their kin long dispersed to higher paying jobs, same in Canada. And, economies of scale are limited by land.

Cows are a different beast. While indeed the consumer choosing the cheapest protein is a factor, fact is beef is going to take a few years to rebuild, and even at these numbers my guess, too low to attract new investment, but we will see herd expansion from existing players, this is however limited by real estate: cows need real, real estate to graze.

[errolanderson]

mcfarms . . . when markets overheat, no-one knows where the top is. All one can see is warning signs of a bubble market in-progress.

And bubble markets classically go higher than anyone's expectations ie: cattle.

these warning signs are indicators as well as precious pricing opportunities for risk-managers. If you want to find an analyst that can pick tops, good luck to you.

[mcfarms]

Didnt say he was wrong said hes predictable.

[mcfarms]

and a one trick pony, Tells Us Errol what are you bullish on.

[A990]

i,m sorry he makes you sad

[cottonpicken]

The yen isn't going anywhere.?

Its going to get flushed down the toilet.

[cottonpicken]

A 7% drop in annualized gdp of one of the worlds largest economies after an experiment called abenomics,when that came out i thought here we go,but hardly a chirp.