Prices, peas, canary, flax, oats and barley

[riders2010]

Lots of talk about wheat and canola, but what do you think these commodities will do for prices? Errol, Charlie, Larry and others comments appreciated. Did not grow flax but hearing rumours 18 bucks is a possibility, canary will depend on mexico and possible other new markets looking at 26 to 30 cents, oats will be a dog so many fields like I never seen before all over 100 bu easily, barley may be in for a run up but at what point is it too expensive to feed?

[dave4441]

New markets for canary?

[errolanderson]

Opinion that can be thrown out with the
wash, but . . . .

Edible peas - expect further post-
harvest price strength in both greens
and yellows.
additional 50 cents/bu possible.

Oats - cash bids in our view steady to
up into winter.

Flax - good buyer demand into late
October. Bids fully steady

Barley - there may be a supply squeeze
into next spring, but feeders bleeding.
Need a huge jump in fed cattle bids
which may occur over the next few
months, providing the stock market does
not fall out of bed after the U.S.
election (which is a possibility).

Canary Seed - depressed market.
Question in a global recession is;
Do you feed the bird or toss it into a
stew?

[dave4441]

You are somewhat on the money Errol. Problem with Canary market is not totally Mexico, although we tend to blame it. It is poor demand in many countries. Europe is #2 buyer of canary, USA #3 and Brazil #4 (traditionally). Brazilian demand is down last year due to supplies from Argentine, USA is wild bird market and demand is not great (easier to stop feeding wild birds then it is to stop feeding your pet), Europe has its own issues due to financial crises. Yes, access in MExico is not helping but it is not going to change either. We either meet their specs or they feed millet, canola, etc. THe last issue is supply. The last 2 years Canada was supposed to be out of canary by year end and it never happens due to unreported stocks/acres. Buyers are more hand to mouth and are ignoring the numbers. Expected production is 150,000 and demand is 180,000 MT. Looks like a bull market but looks exactly the same as the last 2 years and it never really performed. With my luck market will spike as soon as i say this, but i kinda doubt it.

[riders2010]

Thanks for the opinions, So what you are saying Errol is when ordering KFC a guy should specify chicken or canary when in mexico?lol

[errolanderson]

riders2010 . . . could be a real battle
for feed barley into the new year purely
on supply squeeze.

Stats Can 9.5 million MT projection is
way too high (IMO). My guess is 8 to 8.5
MMT. Yields are heard lower than
expected in Alberta as well. Light
barley in Saskatchewan. Our domestic
feedlot market will chew through as
least 6.5 to 7 million MT. Where is this
feed price going to go and how does the
maltster fit in.

Suspect China and Japan will have to buy
their malt barley from Australia this
year.