Canola, Peas, Canary and Flax going to be tight by June?

[mbratrud]

Just trying to get perspective on how much crop is commitied. It will be interesting to see how tight some of these commodities get. Feb 4 Stocks report should be interesting.

What percent sold of each of the above mentioned crops are you sold?

Canola Old 55% New 0%
Flax 0% old or New
Peas 50%
Canary 50%

Our farm is sitting along the Souris River and it is open in spots, Have dugouts that feed from the River that have open Water. Unless we have a miricale in March, April, May seeding is going to be a huge concern.

Really having trouble pushing sales along while watching a disaster unfolds in my back yard. One of the biggest things in marketing to remember is to look beyond our own backyard.

So how much have you sold, and do you have seeding concerns going into spring?

[mbratrud]

Please keep in mind this is Verbal vomit and I appologize for my grammer and spelling

[Braveheart]

We are 45% sold on old crop canola, 15% (or less I hope) sold on new crop canola, and 0% on flax.

Our farm is not far from where the Pembina River starts. Our creeks are at what I consider flood stage as they're already to the top or over their banks. Never seen that before this time of year. TONS of snow. But things here can change fast.

We're not too worried about downside in old crop canola, but a record soybean crop in the US would depress prices fast in the new crop, even with the strong demand evident now. We felt we needed some protection. Risk of the eastern prairies being too wet is real, but will the market listen to that next year at all if US beans are wall to wall.

Today, I'm wondering what effect middle east and North African turmoil will have on crude prices and thus the oilseed markets.

[mbratrud]

If we see $8 Corn like some suggest, should help balance out the Bean acres.

I am also watching Egypt very close and maybe more important if the Syrians follow suit. Good Artilcle on REUTERS on how the Egyption civil unrest could lead to a very different middle east, either a new era of enlightenment or further conquest and influence from the Mullahs of Iran. Sounds like maybe something brewing in Syria as well which would lead to the more positive outlook. Certainly interesting times and very important to the Markets.

[BTOfarmall]

TimidHeart first of all yer wrong. Dare been Record Bushels produced in da USA dee past few years. Look at the prices bein' offered over dis time!!! We chewin trew da crop like no tomorrow. Even wit dese Record Bushels da Ending Stocks are low EVERY year. I kin guarantee it ain't gonna be Wall to Wall Soybeans in da USA. Friendless Mannietoba on da utterhand different story, all da Idiots goin' beans, but you's mean nuttin dare as far as corn/beans. Beans are behind Corn, Wheat, & Cotton as far as pricin' goes. Dis why you's ain't gonna see Wall to Wall beans. Also remember since it was a nice fall lotta fertilizer been applied for Corn Ground 2011, sooo guys ain't gonna switch acres.......

You Comedians believe everyting you's hear. Dare someting Much, Much Bigger at play wit dis Middle Eastern UpRising. The Jackals have done dare work again!!!!!! Criminals In Action..........

[Daylate]

Back to originalpost, ya if canola stays on the same exporting and crushing pace as last 4 months then by mid june we'll be out of canola and crushers will be waiting for new crop.
As far as flax I don't know what is left but these prices have to be creating some very leaky bins, it is for us but I think there's more room for up potential in flax, but these prices are tempting.
I'm not sure if i can stomache the wait but i'll try.
My main concern is what we will replace it with this fall. It is stressingly wet here too. (1 hr. N of Regina)

[Hopperbin]

I am thinking if the crushers are looking at a big new crop coming and run out of old they may just do repairs instead of crushing. Not sure they need it but it is a point. If I had to run my combine for so many hours I would do some pre season maintenance. A lot of farmers just buy new these day so they not think about that. I repair my shit, shit that runs all day long needs to be maintained. No doubt everything is going to be tight.
I am 95 percent sold canola as of today, 0 new crop. 75 percent sold CWSWS wheat 0 new crop. 0 percent sold old crop peas, 0 fro new crop acreage.

[bucket]

If your theory about the crush plants doing repairs instead of crushing comes true that is a very bullish comment. That means there are no leftover stocks and a record crop can't rebuild stocks. Shutdowns are very expensive in a continuous flow plant. More expensive than paying 20 bucks a bushel for canola.

The world needs a buffer of stocks. 2009 was a good crop and 2010 the stocks are tight again. The record crop the world might grow in 2011 is not in the bin. Supplies are not getting bigger at this point in time.

But current facts are russia is dry, china is dry, australia is wet, canada is wet and the US is dry in the winter wheat belt, argentina is dry.

Those facts don't point to a record crop anywhere.