CWRS Market signal

[Hopperbin]

Hey grain beetle where do get that pork is bad for you???

Well I had a CFCO contract that was basis contracted and allowed to price. But I know of some neighbours that priced off the combine for much higher for regular canola, so again why should anyone force me to sell through the CWB? And ah ya they were price before fall.

[Hopperbin]

Grain beetle my farm is a family farm and by that definition I hope it to be in the family for generations after me if not farmed then at least owned. I don't think we should not farm or trade market instead. I think it best to market what we have.

[furrowtickler]

Grain bug, Canola, peas, U.S. wheat, lentils all steadly moveing up and the PZRO's keep dropin and the Fixed price basis keeps getting wider KMA.

[charliep]

Grain Beatle

What is the appropriate number?

My number would be closer to 7 MMT with the
extra feed use in but the 6 MMT in the information
I receive would not be out of line.

To put into context, the export number in my S&D
is 17 MMT (1 MMT above the CWB target from Dec -
may have been revised upward.

On week 41, exports were 13.5 MMT. To achieve
17 MMT, the CWB will have to export about
300,000 tonnes/week. To bring down carryovers
by an 1 MMT, the CWB would have to export an
additional 100,000 tonnes. That is, exports of 18
MMT/carryover of 6 MMT would require 400,000
tonnes/week. Carryover of 5 MMT (same as July 31
2008), 500,000 tonnes. Etc.

The original topic was about the ability of the
market to provide signals to make any of these
numbers happen. The open seems to do as good a
job as single desk if not better.

[charliep]

Should have separated durum from other wheats.

Durum exports to date (week 41) - 3 MMT. Likely about 75,000
tonnes/week or 3.8. Carryover July 31 - close to 2 MMT or double the
previous year.

Wheat ex durum (week 41) - 10.5 MMT to date. Wheat exports
somewhere between 225,000 (likely light) and 325,000/week. Upper end
would see wheat ex durum down to 4 MMT on July 31 - similar to 2008.

[charliep]

dmlfarmer

After 46 postings and given the time of year (seeding/should be
following markets) but your line of questions made me think and go
back over some old ideas.

Will note that the CWB deliveries are normally weighted into the last
quarter of the crop year. This year is no different. If you want to look
at historical evidence, go the to Informa Economics study "An Open
Market for CWB Grains" (Figure 8, page 24).

http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$Department/deptdocs.nsf/all/agc6751/
$FILE/informafinalreport.pdf

You can also look at the tables on page 54 (table 2.31) that shows
average time in the primary elevator.

To highlight using Canadian canola and wheat based on the five year
average deliveries.

Canola takes about 28 % of annual deliveries off the combine first
quarter (Aug/Sept/Oct) with the remaining 72 % of deliveries split
evenly over the next 3 quarters. Time in storage is about 20 days.

Wheat deliveries are weighted to the 4 th quarter (May/June/July) with
30 % occurring during this period. Average days in storage 35 to 40
days. durum is worst at 45 to 65 days.

Some of the answer is the multiple class, grade and protein
segregations in wheat. But a sales system that is based on having
actual product in the commercial system before sales are made would
seem to be highly inefficient - particularly when farmers are delivering
right in the same period that US farmers are harvesting and selling
their new crop winter wheat - you can look at US farmers delivery
patterns.

Likely won't get a response but the issue is a lot more than the one
pony show you would seem to highlight. It is a long term system
problem.

The challenge back is how you would measure CWB logistics
performance. It is not measured in the current annual report.

[charliep]

Should note that US farmers deliver 45 % of their crop in their
first quarter (June, July and August) - same time that Canadian
farmers are delivering their 30 in the last quarter of our crop
year (May, June and July).

Other Northern hemisphere winter wheat crops are being
harvested and sold during the summer.

[charliep]

To give the CWB credit for a good job the reason for higher export volumes would be highlighted in the following bullet from the CWB Bulletin.

Beginning quote "April 2009 saw the biggest exports of CWB grain in a single month since November, 1997. Last month, there were 2.3 million tonnes of western Canadian wheat, durum and barley exported, a 174-per-cent increase over April 2008 and well above the 10-year average of 1.3 million tonnes for April movement. These export volumes are due to a strong sales program to market the largest Prairie crop in a decade and the availability of rail and vessel capacity due to the economic downturn for other commodities. Significant export volumes are expected to continue throughout the spring, so farmer deliveries are encouraged throughout May and June to fulfill sales commitments, particularly for Nos. 1 and 2 CWRS and No. 1 CWAD." end quote.