Canola Pricing/Soybean and Soyoil Rally

[charliep]

Just curious what peoples thoughts are in the recent rallies in the oilseed markets. I thought I would post a couple of charts to get people thinking.

March canola.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CA/36

March soyoil

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SO/36

March soybeans

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SB/36

[nw9flynn]

It looks like canola will lose most of its gains made on tues. I think for guys who are looking to price some should keep March $250/MT as a realistic target.
If it looks like a sustainable rally will develop later on closer to spring than it could be a opportunity to buy back on paper.
The longer canola sits in the bin the greater the storage and del risk.

[charliep]

Would agree that canola is in a trading range of $235 to $250 with a fear that it remain a market that looses carry.

Under that theory of buy cheap (that would be canola but I would highlight the above) and sell expensive (CBT soybeans and soyoil), I am looking at some other alternatives to hedge stored/unpriced canola. South America is the most visible market driver now (okay Brazil/dry Argentina). Demand is the other factor (South East Asia).

Caveat is stored canola is low moisture/won't heat.

What are others thoughts?