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The rain did not prevent losses from drought in the soybean crop.

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    The rain did not prevent losses from drought in the soybean crop.

    The rain did not prevent losses from
    drought in the soybean crop
    Need more than 100 mm, but the average
    would be located 10 to 25 mm
    For Fernando Bertello | THE NATION

    The lack of rain affected the production
    in Canals, province of Córdoba.
    Although rain was forecast for this
    weekend in several areas of the Pampas,
    rainfall would be enough to reverse
    losses in the soybean harvest and
    replenish the lack of moisture that
    exists in soils.

    With corn and irreversible damage in
    large areas, bet the producers are
    trying to do a relatively good season
    with soy. In any cycle, the oilseed
    consume between 400 and 600 millimeters,
    but now with the drought in many places
    that planted last October is not reached
    even half of these records.

    "Sunday, Monday and Tuesday the rains
    will generalize, but will be highly
    variable, from 10 to more than 100
    millimeters," said Eduardo Sierra, a
    specialist in agroclimatology. According
    to Sierra, while rainfall will have the
    full range of variability, "the average
    will be about 10 to 25 millimeters."
    With that level of rainfall, Sierra
    said, "most of the agricultural area
    will continue with just living a day."

    A report by the Institute of Climate and
    Water of the National Institute of
    Agricultural Technology (INTA) stated
    that rainfall "have a great variability
    in its intensity and spatial location."

    According to Sierra, now the humid
    pampas generally need to receive more
    than 100 millimeters. "I'd have enough
    rain to replenish soil moisture, or
    about 150 mm at least, and then would
    have to keep pouring in abundance," he
    said. To take into account, had a shower
    that would reach 50 mm for normal growth
    for only ten days.

    Before the rains came last week, much of
    the pampas were 40 to 50 days without
    rainfall.

    For this campaign, initial projections
    were that the crop production reached 52
    million tons. However, estimates have
    been falling like a slide. Rodolfo
    Rossi, a renowned specialist in the
    production of soybeans and a member of
    the Association of Chain Soy Argentina
    (ACSOJA) estimates that the harvest is
    now closer to 44 or 45 million tons. In
    fact, according to Rossi, the situation
    in which soy is difficult in several
    areas that can consume the water it
    needs. Today in the reproductive stage
    that consumption should be around 6 mm
    per day.

    "In the conditions that many lots are
    already affected, mainly in plant
    growth, consumption [of water] will be
    reduced because there is a leaf area
    [the aerial part of the plant] that can
    produce such consumption," said the
    specialist.

    EMERGENCY

    While producers await the rains continue
    to make estimates of the economic impact
    of the drought . In Parchment, local
    Rural Society estimated that losses in
    that area already exceed $ 80 million.
    "The northern region of Buenos Aires is
    experiencing one of the most intense and
    prolonged droughts in recent decades,
    which has caused losses of 60% in the
    corn crop and a floor of 30% in the
    potential production of soybeans," said
    the entity.

    Despite the losses of the producers, the
    State as of that region will be $ 44
    million in deductions.

    To all this, the government of Santa Fe
    declared emergency and / or agricultural
    disaster to farms located in all
    districts of the departments July 9,
    Vera, General Obligado, San Cristobal,
    in the northern province, and General
    Lee, in southern Santa Fe.

    NEW SECRETARIAT

    The Government shall set up within the
    Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and
    Fisheries another undersecretary. It
    will be the Secretariat of Value Added
    and Technological Innovation.

    Yesterday in a meeting with grain
    brokers across the country, the minister
    of the area, Norberto Yauhar, referred
    to this new body.

    According to reports, he would be in
    charge of this unit is the current
    secretary of agriculture, Oscar Solis.
    The new unit will address issues such as
    the generation of added value in origin,
    the application of biotechnology and
    agro-energy.

    There, a central management will drive
    the armed officer of companies that will
    bring more value to what they already
    produce. In several speeches, President
    Cristina Kirchner talked about how the
    field should add value to their
    production.

    Meanwhile, Marcelo Yasky, which are
    already working in the Secretariat of
    Agriculture, Solis would replace the
    head of that agency.

    #2
    For soybeans I see the situation like
    this:
    Losses experienced in:
    Brazil
    Parana 3 million tons
    RGDS 3 million tons
    Paraguay 3 million tons
    Argentina crop size at 45 million
    tons(54 mmt expected)
    or 9 million tons below early
    expectations.
    Combined total swing in beans
    (18 million tons) from Dec 1
    expectations
    If we combine this with the 2012 China
    expected imports
    of 57 mmt up from 52 mmt last year- this
    makes things
    interesting for 12 more months in the
    case of beans.
    23 million ton shift in supply/demand
    tables on global soybeans.

    Comment


      #3
      SF3

      Question.

      What would a rain do to your crop in late August?

      If I am not far off this would be about the equivalent stage the crops are at in Argentina and brazil.

      I have never seen yields increase in August, especially if they had gone without rain for 50 days prior to that.

      What is your opinion on all of this weather talk from a farmer's view?

      If this happens in Saskatchewan, I usually just want to get the harvest done and move on.

      Comment


        #4
        Corn:
        USDA says there is plenty. Basis levels
        are increasing
        inside USA.
        Where is the corn?
        As per South America, Brazil will
        produce enough for itself.
        Very few exports in 2012.
        Argentina will need most of its
        production for domestic use
        also.
        Corn will be worth gold in Brazil and
        Argentina the next 12
        months.
        I think sometime in the next 3 to 6
        months, USDA will
        "adjust" the 2011 USA corn production
        lower. But, at the
        same time, they will show a production
        potential in USA of
        95 million acres and 14 billion bushels.
        Thus, the lower 2011
        number, likely will not matter.

        Comment


          #5
          Bucket your correct, In the 80s when it
          didnt rain in July for 30 days if I got
          a inch or 4 in August wouldnt increase
          the yield. Might actually screw up the
          grade as the shit is baked into the
          head. Thrashing sucks.
          I find the USDAs numbers are cooked. And
          it seems their trying to make every one
          think the crop can survive. I think the
          real problem is the buyers cant afford
          to pay for the shit and are trying their
          hardest to keep it down.
          Never had a crop make a increase after a
          dry July!. Rain in august is like you
          say next year country. Way less fires at
          harvest is the only plus.

          Comment


            #6
            Yeah, that's what I was thinking, so why are there traders or industry players thinking there is lots of product available?

            Is it time to lock the bins????

            Comment


              #7
              Just was on the phone to friend in SA
              who is like a Larry Weber up here. He
              will be doing a crop tour with some Big
              wigs from USA the next two weeks. Will
              be interesting to here his comments. But
              I still think the fact China is slowing
              down. DAh americans aren't buying
              shitty products. DAh.
              Canadians must be slowly learning also
              as inflation was down in Dec. Christmas
              rush and all.
              Europe is basically all broke. USA is
              broke and china has a realestate bubble.
              Fallow the money always follow the cash.

              Comment


                #8
                SF3
                I am hopefully bullish oilseeds and canola.
                It is hard the be bullish wheat with all of the
                global inventory.
                What are your thoughts for 2012 wheat?

                Comment

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