Feed Bly

[bgmb]

Sitting on some barley right now and want to move by the end of july of first week of august at the very latest.

Anyone have any suggestions, sell now?

or hang on? 60-70,000 bu about half is malt quality.

[Steve_Winkler]

Some decent prices around here (Calgary area)being talked about for July delivery. $3.85/bu picked up at the farm confirmed through a broker. Talk of $4.25/bu but haul yourself. Don't know what the market is going to do with this dry weather we seem to be stuck in... November futures were $201 or $ 4.37/bu. Hope that keeps going up!

[charliep]

Make sure you keep the new contracts separated from the old ones.
November and January are the new contract (delivered Lethbridge).
October and December are the old specifications (Saskatoon catchment).

https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/futures_canada/member_notices/J
une_18_2009_new%20barley.pdf

[Hopperbin]

If it is malt quality I would suggest you submit a sample ASAP. I have a hunch you could get garanteed movement and picked up in the yard before you need them bins in the fall. Too bad you have to deal with the CWB as the middle man. On that amount of malt quality barley you should be making some phone calls, get a good recheck sample.

[charliep]

Would watch the USDA report tomorrow/US corn
acres.

Within your time range (July/early August), I don't
think there is a big rush to price but would stay
alert.

Tongue in cheek, you may want to see if the
maltster that stiffed you over the winter/spring
wants the malt barley now at the price they
committed to last year.

More serious, I would treat the PRO/low cash plus
as reality (lots of European malt barley) and only
deal with someone who will offer the relatively
higher (or at least suspect will be) North American
price. I want my money (or at least 90 % of it in the
case of cash plus) at time of delivery or else I would
hold for the feed market.

[Hopperbin]

You got stiffed? Time to sue the CWB.

[charliep]

bgmb is not the only one that has expressed concern. From previous
threads, comes back to what signals are being provided farmers to review
the potential malt barley in their bins. I suspect some maltsters (not all)
will be re-thinking their communication strategy with their key suppliers.

[Hopperbin]

Charlie you have got to be one the best posters on this site. Charlie I know you try your best to support the CWB I know you have spent a lot of time trying to figure out how the CWB programs work. And you have tried to show your farmer friends just how to do businesss with the CWB. But you are just not going to do it, Charlie do you really think you can educate the average farmer and keep them up on CWB tactics?

[bgmb]

Yes had contracted malt in $6 range but no love from grain company/maltster come harvest oh well only cost us $200,000 no big deal basically break even on bly now instead of making money.

I sold a few loads as feed yesterday just to get things moving, but will try again as malt too. thanks guys.

[charliep]

Article from this week's e-malt on the North American barley situation.

Begin quote:

" World: Canada & the US see bad start of barley growing season, Australia enjoys good weather for planting
Canada and the US had an extremely bad start of the growing season, snow and frost until end May, drought in the Western Prairies, flooding in and around the Red River valley of Manitoba and North Dakota, industry analysts communicated last month.

Planting has been late almost everywhere; in North Dakota, only 79% of the planned acres had been sown by May 31. There has even been talk of abandoning part of the acreage for this year. Recent crop forecasts are 10.7 mln tons for Canada, 1.1 mln tons less than last year, and 4.8 mln tons (5.2) for the USA.

Good precipitation in most parts of Australia facilitated barley planting.

In Argentina, it remains too dry for planting. The export tax system of the country favours barley so that a further increase of the acreage is expected.

In China, the barley harvest has started in the Yangste River region, no results are known yet. The nation imported 612,000 tons of malting barley in Jan/April, 15% more than last year. The origins were: 257,000 tons from Canada, 233,000 tons from Australia, 132,000 tons from France." End quote

[charliep]

Europe situation (e-malt):

Begin quote: " EU: Analysts do not expect last year’s record barley yields to be repeated this year
Barley crops look good in France, Germany and the U.K., but most industry observers doubt that the record yields of last year will be repeated, a study showed last month.

Germany planted 20% less spring barley, the U.K. 18% more, because farmers could not get into the fields last autumn to plant winter grains. Rainfalls in May have improved the situation in Scandinavia and the whole Baltic Sea region.

Poor crops, especially of spring barley, are expected over the whole southeast, from southern Poland, Moravia and Austria through to Romania and Greece. The Iberian Peninsula had been considered in good shape after sufficient rainfalls in winter. The reports of a poor outlook in the center of Spain came as a shock, private estimates of the total barley crop are as low as 7 mln tons, which other analysts have not followed yet. Altogether it looks that all circumstances surrounding this year’s barley crop have been much less favourable than last year.

The EU had a long and cold winter, late planting in most countries except for France and South England, a dry period following seeding in many countries. It seems logical that yields cannot come close to those of 2008. An interesting point ...More Info " End quote.

[charliep]

One more posting on barley from my morning scan of newsletters.

http://www.syngenta.ca/Farm/Alerts/AlertDetail.aspx?AlertTypeId=5&alertId=102524

My attention is on crop conditions and as best I can in an unknown future evaluate likely outcomes, risks and ways to mitigate. The evaluation is both for the buyer and seller side.

[Steve_Winkler]

Update to recent prices for feed barley in our area, feedlot paying $4/bu, and Pioneer $4.50 at the farm. Not too shabby, beats the crap out of the $3.75/bu farm gate I did 3 weeks ago. At least it was only a couple bins worth.

Cheers.

[dfarms11]

Um, what area would that be Steve? Southern Alberta I presume?

[dfarms11]

I guess I should have reread earlier posts before I spoke up!LOL Calgary area!