A question for monopoly supporters

[Fransisco]

Does the US export durum?

Follow up question.

If, yes what % of production do they normally export.

[bucket]

I don't know. I am not a monopoly supporter but they don't know either. If they did they wouldn't be a monopoly supporter for long.

The US exports our durum. Buys it from the cwb (morons) and exports it. Or they keep it and use it for their own plants and export theirs. And they makes money doing it.

A board supporter will deny this but they don't know or choose to ignore the fact.

Ask Weber - he knows the answers about how much the US exports on our behalf.

[GrainBeetle]

How many Canadian pigs does the US import?

The answer: Not as much as they used to.

Cap-in-hand?

[per]

Pigs have a limited shelf life. Durum does not. Although both are commodities, not apples to apples.

[charliep]

Here is the table you are asking for.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/wheat/YBtable11.asp

US exports about 30 to 40 % of the durum they
produce. Most years however US domestic use close
to equals production and basically every kernel of
durum that is exported is replaced by a similar
amount of Canadian imports.

[SASKFARMER3]

So for simple math we supply cheap product for them to mill and eat. They sell their Cheap product(look at their Durum once) for premium.
Boy the CWB is great.

[Fransisco]

Somehow Charlie I knew you couldn't resist showing us the answer. I was really hoping to find out if monopolists can do any homework themselves.

None the less the purpose of the question is that after reading this in the western producer this week...

"CWB spokesperson Maureen Fitz-henry said cross-border comparisons are problematic. In this case, there is a flawed assumption that all Canadian durum could be sold into the lucrative U.S. marketplace."

It looks like it is Fitz-henry who is making the assumptions. She is assuming the US does not export any durum and that price comparisons are therefore invalid because they do not reflect world prices.

As the chart Charlie shows us she is wrong on both assumtions.

[Fransisco]

These are the numbers I find the most interesting from the data set charlie has pointed us to.


Year Production Exports %

1984/85 103 61 59%
1985/86 113 53 47%
1986/87 98 82 84%
1987/88 93 62 67%
1988/89 45 20 45%
1989/90 92 55 60%
1990/91 122 53 43%
1991/92 104 45 43%
1992/93 100 47 47%
1993/94 70 54 77%
1994/95 97 40 42%
1995/96 102 39 38%
1996/97 116 38 33%
1997/98 88 53 60%
1998/99 138 41 30%
1999/00 99 51 52%
2000/01 110 56 51%
2001/02 84 49 59%
2002/03 80 33 41%
2003/04 97 46 48%
2004/05 90 31 34%
2005/06 101 45 45%
2006/07 53 40 74%
2007/08 72 42 58%
2008/09 85 20 24%


Average 50%
Minimum 24%
Maximum 84%

Over the last 25 years the US has on average exported 50% of it's durum production. Even the lowest on record at 24% is still ample to reflect world prices at US elevators.

One would think that a high level spokeswoman for the Wheat Board would know this. Either she doesn't and doesn't know what she's talking about or she does and she is deliberately trying to mislead the public. I'm open to a third possibility if anyone has one.

[Fransisco]

Darn it, I had the numbers all nicely spaced apart and the site scrunched them all together. But I think you can still see what they are.

[agstar77]

So you think we should not sell to the U.S. How would you accomplish that under any marketing plan?

[Fransisco]

Here is the next quote

"We are selling into the U.S. at very good prices. We are getting prices above the prices that (WCWGA) are quoting for the U.S.," said Fitzhenry."

I should hope so the wheat growers were comparing farmgate to farmgate, Fitz-henry is comparing US farmgate to
CWB sale prices not Canadian farmgate prices. The US elevators are also selling for higher than the farmgate.

Again she is being misleading and I believe purposefully so.

[Fransisco]

Moving on to the next ridiculous quote...


"She noted the WCWGA analysis also failed to account for quality discounts and transportation costs. The board estimated it would cost 83 cents per bu. to access Montana's Golden Triangle area by truck from southern Alberta and $93 cents per bu. by rail."

1) The quality was exactly the same on both sides of the border this is a red herring.

2)The most it would cost to truck to Montana would be 40 cents a bushel and elevation charges are 25 cents a bushel cheaper and there are no cleaning charges.

3)In an open market you wouldn't have to truck it to Montana the price would come to Alberta. The distance to port from Alberta and Montana are pretty much the same. The trucking cost is another red herring based on the Boards false assumptions.

[Fransisco]

Then there is this final slap in the farmers face...

"The board will end up taking 80 percent of the durum contracted this year. She doubts growers would want the CWB to take all the durum available and dump it on the market at bargain basement prices amounting to a small premium over feed wheat."

At Berthold ND they are offering $7.25 a bushel to their farmers there right now. Just a tad better than feed I'd say, and a whole lot better than $0 the board is going to give you for your last 20% of production

http://www.bertholdfarmers.com/

[silverback]

83 cents a bushel from Lethbridge to Montana - by Truck ?

That is hilarious.

Maybe she got Lethbridge and Churchill, MB mixed up a little.

[LWeber]

Why use Montana?

Fortuna, North Dakota - population 31
7 miles from the SK border and within 100 miles of the heart of the durum growing area in western Canada

The dollar conversion is 1.1196

New crop Durum

USD$7.40 X 1.1196 = 8.28 a BUSHEL locked in NEW CROP in farmer's pocket

THE FPC for SK farmers at Friday's close is $4.60 in their pocket for new crop durum.

The difference is CAD$3.68 a frikkin bushel.

Monopoly power at work.