Loonie and Oil Prices

[charliep]

Not a lot of market talk so thought I might stimulate some ideas to ponder while you are bouncing around in front of the seeder.

Soybeans have been highlighted in another thread but still worth watching.

Noting that crude oil is back into the $56 to $60/barrel depending on the contract month.

Also interesting the loonie is moving higher at the same time (85 to 86 cents).

TSX over 10,000.

[Hopperbin]

Canola also well over 10 dollars. Seems to be moving up along with the loonie.

[liberty]

The loonie will continue to move higher lock-step with oil prices.

We could be back at par by autumn.

Gold has also shown renewed strength lately along with other commodities.

It looks like Bernanke's frantic efforts to inflate the money supply are having the effect that advocates of the Austrian School of Economics predicted they will.

[charliep]

Thoughts on oil prices this fall. An 86 cent loonie and $58/barrel oil put the Canadian price at cdn $67. Does a par loonie mean world oil prices in the $65 to $70 this fall?

Also interested in gold comments just as a pretend technical analyst. Seems to have held a fairly tight trading range over the past year is something under $850 a buy and $950 a sell.

[Choice2U]

Put some target sells on financial stocks and CP a couple of weeks ago. They have been triggered over the past couple of days. Thought that we're going to see a TSX/DOW bubble pop so wanted some cash around to buy back in after TSX drops down to 8 or 8500. The rise happened, now wondering if the pop will occur. If it does, grain prices will also take a hit so played with a $430 Canola put for $18 to offset this event as well. Am I an idiot or a genius??? I suspect an idiot because if it does happen (once lucky, twice good) so I'll just consider it lucky. If not, I lost out on a continued ride up the hill.

[charliep]

I assume a Nov 430 - showed a settle today of $19/tonne.

Actually sounds like a good strategy as an insurance price policy. Hopefully not out of line but is always interesting that a person will buy other insurance (car, liability, building), etc with the hope it will never be used/a recognition that they can't afford the risk of an accident but feel guilty about buying a call. I hope prices head over $500/tonne this fall but recognize the same risks you do.

[charliep]

second last sentence - should be guilty about buying a put - not call.