Help!!!! Implications of weather

[charliep]

Any information on impact of weather on crop conditions would be appreciated. Are you getting rain in your community? If you are, what impact will it have on yield/quality? How much hay is down in the swath?

[bbrindle]

It would be helpful, for getting a handle on yield prospects, if people could say how the crops compare to their five year average and/or last year. Perhaps also whether looks earlier/later relative to a benchmark.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie and Brenda,

If the worms, bugs, hail, frost, cool weather, don't get our farm any worse than they have now, I would expect;

Canola 85% of 10 year average,

CWRS Wheat 100% of 10 year average,

CPS and CWES 80% of 10 year average,

Barley 90% of 10 year average.

This is if no bad frost till the 10th of September, and normal heat units from now on.

Hope this helps!!!

[bbrindle]

Tom - near Killam?

[TOM4CWB]

Brenda,

This is an average over the whole farm.

I spent the last few days mowing, rogeuing, checking for Diamond Back, Wheat Midge, and this is what I would estimate ALL our farm will average.

Bottom line is that I do not expect to collect any crop insurance (80% coverage) unless a bad frost gets us.

Wheat grades are another story.

Wheat Midge Damage, Sprouted Kernals, FHB damage, and so on leave grades totally up in the air.

No wonder the CWB has such a high PRO, it is a totally different grading system in 2001-02.

I really wonder how this is actually going to help farmers though!

Wheat quality is a big mess.

I cannot believe the feed wheat futures made it above Oct $150/t!!!!!!

It will take a miracle to even make milling CWRS!!!!

CPS and CWES are likely less of a problem???

Barley yeilds on early planted are a reck, 60% of average in our area!!!

Hope someone else will be honest and give a real report too!!!!

[TOM4CWB]

Hey GUYS,

I would like the rest of you to step up to the plate, have a close look at your crop and do a production estimate.

A good marketing plan requires this anyway, it would be nice if you would share it so we can have a more complete idea on fall production numbers!!!

You don't have to say bu/ac, just % of normal.


If 50 of us did this we could come up with a pretty close # I bet!

[ianben]

Yes Tom I agree!!!
This is the sort of thing I want us to do too.
Market research but how do you intend to use this information under the present system.
Buyers will know this as soon as you, as they do this all the time, and understand the meaning of the figures.

Say yeilds are up 1% or down 5%.
Do you know what effect this would have on the market???
I don't.
I need someone to tell me. Like my agronamist tells me which chemical to use and when.
I would use a marketamist who told me the price I SHOULD recieve based on data collected from around the world from farmers FOR farmers.

If we could all read this info like we read futures prices today, in the paper, on the net, wherever.
Could we stablize prices a little and get somewhere near a cowman price where we all manage to make a small profit most of the time.

Tom or any other farmers can you answer the question
What will a 1% rise in production worldwide or a 5% fall mean to you in dollars/bushel on your farm?

Regards Ian

[crusher]

Lots can happen before my crop is in the bin. We've had lots of rain lately and will need a late frost to get any kind of quality. All crops except peas will have variable maturity. I expect average grading except for HRS which will be down one grade. I might get some malt but that will take straight cutting portions of fields. Canola is starting to lose flowers on our farm, I think it will be safe from any but the earliest frost. In the area there are many canola fields that are very yellow and need lots of time yet. I wonder with the rains we've been getting if there is going to be a disease problem that will reduce yields.

These are my anticipated yields, but there is still six weeks of growing ahead for my wheat: peas - average, canola - average, barley - average, CPS - 85%, HRS - 90 %.

[TOM4CWB]

Crusher,

Have you seen any diamond back worms yet?

They are now at St Albert at levels that are destroying feilds.

Wainwright, Viking, Sedgwick, Killam, Forestberg all have had spraying done.

They will turn a feild white in two days.

There are background levels just about everywhere, and really you can't kill them till they get bad enough that they are on the pods. Threshhold spraying levels are about worms 5 per plant.

After a hard rain they get washed off, and it usually takes a couple days to have them climb back up, if they don't drown in the rain.

The big wind from the south really brought bad things besides no rain this spring!!!

[crusher]

I've been so busy fixing equipment, trying to get my bins cleaned out, and playing with the kids before the harvest that I haven't checked my fields. Neighbor had two worms/m2 before the rain and said the same wash them off story. I guess I better check and try to protect that $7.50 canola.

I'm still thinking about the FPC. Was going to do my CPS to 25% but local feed prices might be better - that Minn. Dec. chart looks kinda ugly.

[TOM4CWB]

Crusher,

This is usually the bad time of the year to sell wheat, just after the US harvest has been taken off (Hard and Soft Red Winter Wheat)

There are large volumes of this wheat that need to move out of the elevator system in the next couple of months, to make way for the beans and corn.

Therefore October will likely be the next wheat rally time, especially if Kansas and Texas are still dry!!!

Doing the CWB basis, if we could find out if the CWB would ship and sell our CPS this fall, could make sense!!!

What are the chances we might light a fire under them in Winnipeg to get some CPS export sales on the books early this marketing year?

Would someone from the CWB sales department give us a hand, so we always don't have to operate like mushrooms???