Soyabeans up on rains?

[furrowtickler]

Argentina recieved some good rains over the last few days and the market goes up today? I think the drought damage is done and the rains will not add yeild at this point. Ex - winter wheat from last year, 50 days of no rain then a perfect july. Still the worst winter wheat yeilds b/c the damage was allready done in this area. This same thing may happen in Austrialia, it has been very hot there. It would be nice to get one more crack at $10 canola. I hope the guy who predicted the slide going into 02/23 is wrong.

[cottonpicken]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6g1AsFvxKJU&NR=1

[GreenValley]

Yesterday learn that in north China has severe drought on their wheat.

Drought threatens Chinese wheat crop

link is http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/feb/04/china-drought-wheat-crop

With billions people living in China. Hope them well.

[furrowtickler]

I know that Turkey is dry as well hence the pick up in Pea prices lately. It is nice to see the open market respond, watch the PRO's continue to decline. Nice find cotton.

[classicalliberal]

Is $10 canola a specific return on investment that happens to fall on that even sounding number or is it a psychological number that no one will sell for less than? If the price gets to $9.99/bu where you almost reach your return targets will you sell then? How about $9.80?

[bucket]

Good point. I have lost more money waiting for that last dime or nickel than I care to talk about.

[furrowtickler]

We have pricing targets in at just under 10, this will still give us an average just north of $11.50/bus. With our yeilds lower than our average due to hail we need that average to make the return we want from our canola from '08. Not psychological just economics for our farm based on cash flows. Some say that $12 is still possible and the elevator fmr's ect think sub 8 before long, so a mid point that gives us a good return on investment I think is still achievable.

[checking]

Same agricultural economist, as thread on A "free market" monetary system, stated for crop 2009, canola - under $8.00, #1 grade, high protein hard wheat -$6.00 top, durum - $6.50, malt barley - $3.50 to $4.00, feed barley - $2.10 to $2.15, oats - $2.30 to $2.35, flax $7.00 to $8.00, green peas - $5.50 to $5.75, but won't sustain that price, canary - $0.22 to $0.26, yellow mustard - $0.32 to $0.36. Question? Did the killing farmers made in 2007-2008, which could have been an absolute slaughter if CWB hadn't got in the way, not set everyone's income up for 2007, 2008, and 2009 such that worry over 2008-2009 sales or price is but a mote point?

[checking]

He's right, we won't sustain those price levels.

We're going to push way past them in 2010!!

[furrowtickler]

checking, a huge majority of farmers did not make a killing from last year. Yes almost everyone finaly made some decent money for the first time in years. The type of profit levels experienced in 2008 are needed with the extreme volitile markets and high input costs. The risk a producer takes to grow a crop is astronomical now.

[ado089]

Nov. canola is $10. Stop getting your grain marketing advice from Viagra, Cargil...There's more than one way to skin a cat. Those guys are saleman not advisers. It's the same as your banker selling you mutual funds. Not smart either way.

[furrowtickler]

I don't get advice from any of them, I play hockey with these salesguys and just pick their brains. This is exactly why we did not buy fert last july and why we did not dump all our canola for below $9/bus. Just forewarding their "corporate" veiws in which I have no problem telling them they are wrong at times - over a beer or two.

[cottonpicken]

I'm no ed white but mees thinkin wees at the low end of the trading range...

One more trip lower and then lift off.