Statistics Canada Seeded Area

[charliep]

Seeded area numbers out today.

http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/070626/d070626a.htm

Yes. Was done late May/early June and will not reflect crop that was late/not seeded. A base for making some assumptions about next year.

What will be more important to todays market is the revisions in crop production numbers from last year as a result of it being a census year. Substantial cuts to acreage in the case of wheat/barley/canola. Will tighten already tight old crop supply demand estimates.

[charliep]

Take back my last comment on tighter S&d tables. Adjustments came in the form of lower (read more realistic) feed and dockage levels during the first 8 months of the year. March 31 stocks levels have not change. No impact on the July 31, 2007 carryover.

[AdamSmith]

Canadian Farmers Plant Least Spring Wheat in 37 Years (Update3)

By Christopher Donville and Theophilos Argitis

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Farmers in western Canada planted the fewest acres of spring wheat in 37 years after poor weather and expectations of higher prices for oilseeds prompted a switch to other crops, a survey shows.

Farmers sowed 14.8 million acres of spring wheat in the four western provinces, 11 percent less than forecast in April and the least since 1970, Statistics Canada said from Ottawa. Total plantings were down 19 percent from 2006 and below the 16.7 million acres estimated in a survey published April 24, it said.

A smaller Canadian wheat crop may affect global inventories and further lift prices, which reached an 11-year high on June 21 on the Chicago Board of Trade. World wheat stockpiles were expected to fall to 112 million metric tons by May 31, 2008, a 26-year low, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said June 11.

``Today's numbers imply a couple-of-million-ton reduction in Canadian wheat production in a tight world market,'' said Bill Nelson, a vice president at A.G. Edwards Inc. in St. Louis. ``Globally, this is a bullish development.''

Most Canadian wheat is grown in the west of the country, the world's second-largest exporter of the grain after the U.S. Hard- red spring wheat, used to make breads and cereals, is grown mostly from Alberta to Manitoba and in U.S. northern Plains states such as North Dakota and is traded on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange.

Wheat futures for December delivery rose 16.25 cents, or 2.7 percent, to $6.2125 a bushel in Minneapolis, the highest closing price since May 1996. The most-active contract has risen 32 percent in the past year.

Total Acreage Falls

Statistics Canada estimated that farmers planted 21.7 million acres of all varieties of wheat across the country for harvesting this year, down from an estimated 24.2 million acres a year earlier.

The Canadian Wheat Board, a monopoly exporter of wheat and barley grown in western Canada, said June 14 that farmers in the four western provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba planted 22.2 million acres of wheat this year. Of the total estimate, 15.9 million acres was spring wheat, Bruce Burnett, director of weather and crop surveillance for the CWB, said in an interview yesterday.

``Searching for better returns and with increasing fertilizer prices, Prairie farmers substituted other crops for spring wheat,'' StatsCan said today. ``Poor planting conditions also prompted farmers to switch from wheat to shorter season crops, such as barley and oats.''

Canola acreage increased 17 percent from a year earlier to a record 14.5 million acres on expectations of ``strong demand and higher prices than seen for some time,'' Statistics Canada said. Barley was planted on 10.3 million acres in western Canada, an increase of 1.8 million acres from 2006, and oats were seeded on 4.9 million acres, the agency said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Christopher Donville in Vancouver at cjdonville@bloomberg.net ; Theophilos Argitis in Ottawa at targitis@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: June 26, 2007 16:23 EDT

--------------------------------------

The poor old board can't even come close on seeded acres, Stats Can 14.8 million, CWB 15.9 million.

But heck what's a million to the cwb, whether it's dollars or acres.

Farmers definatly voted with their drills this spring.

Do ya think the the light bulb might turn on anytime soon? or are they (directors and management) doomed to grope around in the dark and stub their toes and continue to look like complete idiots forever?

I'll go with the latter.

[craig]

Not sure we will see the huge increase in barley acres. Wettest land was seeded last and in reality never dried up enough to seed. Canola production may not be what is estimated also. The high yield canola productions areas were seeded late in water logged soils. Lots of poorer looking crops. Also hearing reports from Manitoba that the high rainfall in some areas has taken the shine off what looked like a bumper crop.