July 07 Canola

[AdamSmith]

I have 170t of Canola unpriced on a $15 under July basis, contract, I have lifted my finger to the trigger today but am not ready to pull it just yet.

As a chart watcher if the market closes near or above the current price of $393, this will confirm a flag formation which would indicate a move at least to the contract high of $404.7 or could indicate a half way point for the bull move $390 - $357 = $33/t so $390 plus $33 = $423/t target for July.

Any other opinions about the July 07 Canola chart?

[Zaphod]

On the weekly nearby chart, next resistance is at $395. If it gets through there, $420 is the next objective.

[melvill]

Just curious AdamSmith. When is your deadline to price? I have some clients that have until June 15 and other that have until the end of June.

[AdamSmith]

My deadline is June 22.

[melvill]

Here's my take. I'd put next resistances at about 397/398 and then at the two closes at 401 on Feb 2 and 3. RSI moving into oversold territory but not as far in as the late Nov territory so that's something to watch. MACD showing no signs of rolling over but the difference is starting to get fairly high. Trouble is there are two other things in here we need to watch: the Canuck Buck and soyoil futures and both have been on a looooooooon rally!

[AdamSmith]

Melvill, do you look for two closes above a resistance level, in order to signal a confirmation of a breakout?

[AdamSmith]

July closed today at 389.9 up 1.5.

no breakout up, but it didn't close lower either, Soooo, I'll stand pat and wait for eith a confirmation of either a breakout or a top.

Wheat had quite wild close, July Minny close near it's high of the day up 8 1/2 cents, when it was down a few cents just a half hour befor the close.

I also still have CWB July basis contracts to price.

Same story as Canola, were into the high end of the contract price range, but is it going to breakout higher or are we putting in a top?

What are others thoughts on July Minny Wheat?

Mamma needs a new pair of shoes!

[melvill]

You know AS I don't claim to be an expert on technical analysis. To be that I'd have had to been studying it for 25 or more years. But, yes, I like to see two closes above resistance or two below support. Three in both cases is even better.

[SASKFARMER3]

We just signed a 1200 ton contract for july pricing by end of june for 17 Basis but I have to haul 3 miles to deliver.

[kamichel]

What the heck were you waiting for???
You did good.
Do you need a CWB job? I will vote for you.