Canada Markets
New-Crop Soybean Export Sales May Be Too Hot
8/20/2026 | 10:32 AM CDT
By Mitch Miller, DTN Contributing Canadian Grains Analyst
With another very strong new-crop export sales total for the week ended Aug. 13 of 1.723 million metric tons (mmt) or 99.65 million bushels (mb), the pace to date suggests the current annual soybean export estimate from USDA is too low.
As you can see on the accompanying chart, the 2026-27 soybean export sales to date are over double that seen last year as China has returned as a dominant player ahead of Xi Jinping's visit to Washington in September. Given 2025-26 annual exports are expected to still total 1.52 billion bushels (bb), the current estimate for 2026-27 of a mere 1.66 bb appears too low.
In fact, looking at the previous few years really emphasizes the point. In 2024-25, final soybean exports totaled 1.892 bb and the sales pace to date for 2026-27 is currently 57% above that seen during the 2024-25 campaign. For 2023-24, the annual exports totaled 1.7 bb with the current sales pace exceeding that of the time by 12.1%.
There are a few major considerations to complicate matters -- the potential for front-loading of sales and the very real possibility that there won't be sufficient supply to match previous performances.
Regarding China, if the purchase pace currently seen prior to the visit is maintained, the 2020-21 new-crop sales to date (in orange) shows the potential should the meeting go well. In that year, total annual soybean exports ended up at 2.266 bb or 606 mb ahead of the current estimate for the new crop. Obviously, there isn't adequate supply to see a repeat, but the message is clear. One factor that could support this scenario is the Dalian soybean contract set another new contract high Thursday morning. That takes China's soybean price up to levels not seen since early October 2023.
On the other hand, the 2025-26 poor showing that closely matches 2019-20 (in red) are both examples of what happens when China is boycotting the U.S. while in a trade dispute with the Trump administration. So, if the meetings don't go well and the sales pace to date is just front loading on China's part to help control their domestic price, the pace could still slow considerably. It's worth noting that even in 2019-20 with its dismal showing, final annual exports ended up reaching 1.683 bb -- above the current estimate of 1.66 bb for 2026-27. Pointing out once again how it appears that an increase in soybean export estimates for the new crop should be inevitable, providing there are supplies available.
Taking us to the next point: The difficult growing conditions experienced so far this summer. Drought has hit the Northern and Western Corn Belt areas exceptionally hard with their yields expected to take a hit. High overnight temperatures and a very hot July are not likely to impact soybeans as much as corn, but the forecast for the remainder of August likely will. A hot air dome is expected to remain over western Texas, blocking moisture for nearly all the Corn Belt with much-above-normal temperatures returning to the Western Corn Belt -- not ideal conditions for soybean yield. For the Eastern Corn Belt, extensive flooding and storm damage seen over the past week will surely take its toll as well.
Igniting the last leg higher in the soybean market was the annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which concludes Thursday. For the first three days, participants found soybean pod counts that were down from last year across the board and significantly so in some cases, suggesting future declines in yield and production estimates should be expected from USDA.
Given the disappointing tour findings, it's worth noting that as recently as 2022-23, the national yield was only 49.6 bushels per acre (bpa) with 47.4 bpa seen in 2019-20. A 3-bpa cut in yield versus last year to 50 bpa would only be a 5.7% drop (similar to levels found on the crop tour), but it would take another 232 mb out of supply from the current USDA estimate. Given ending stocks are expected to be only 320 mb, price rationing would have to occur under such an outcome to reduce demand. And given the record soybean crush margins seen this year, it would be safe to assume exports would have to fall, not increase as suggested by the new-crop export sales pace to date.
I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.
Mitch Miller can be reached at [email]mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com[/email]
Follow him on social platform X @mgreymiller
(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
For the following chart...
New-crop (2026-27) U.S. soybean export sales to date (shown in green) are more than double the pace seen last year as China has returned to the market in a powerful way. This suggests future export estimates will likely need to be increased, unless limited supply has an impact. (DTN chart, USDA data)
New-Crop Soybean Export Sales May Be Too Hot
8/20/2026 | 10:32 AM CDT
By Mitch Miller, DTN Contributing Canadian Grains Analyst
With another very strong new-crop export sales total for the week ended Aug. 13 of 1.723 million metric tons (mmt) or 99.65 million bushels (mb), the pace to date suggests the current annual soybean export estimate from USDA is too low.
As you can see on the accompanying chart, the 2026-27 soybean export sales to date are over double that seen last year as China has returned as a dominant player ahead of Xi Jinping's visit to Washington in September. Given 2025-26 annual exports are expected to still total 1.52 billion bushels (bb), the current estimate for 2026-27 of a mere 1.66 bb appears too low.
In fact, looking at the previous few years really emphasizes the point. In 2024-25, final soybean exports totaled 1.892 bb and the sales pace to date for 2026-27 is currently 57% above that seen during the 2024-25 campaign. For 2023-24, the annual exports totaled 1.7 bb with the current sales pace exceeding that of the time by 12.1%.
There are a few major considerations to complicate matters -- the potential for front-loading of sales and the very real possibility that there won't be sufficient supply to match previous performances.
Regarding China, if the purchase pace currently seen prior to the visit is maintained, the 2020-21 new-crop sales to date (in orange) shows the potential should the meeting go well. In that year, total annual soybean exports ended up at 2.266 bb or 606 mb ahead of the current estimate for the new crop. Obviously, there isn't adequate supply to see a repeat, but the message is clear. One factor that could support this scenario is the Dalian soybean contract set another new contract high Thursday morning. That takes China's soybean price up to levels not seen since early October 2023.
On the other hand, the 2025-26 poor showing that closely matches 2019-20 (in red) are both examples of what happens when China is boycotting the U.S. while in a trade dispute with the Trump administration. So, if the meetings don't go well and the sales pace to date is just front loading on China's part to help control their domestic price, the pace could still slow considerably. It's worth noting that even in 2019-20 with its dismal showing, final annual exports ended up reaching 1.683 bb -- above the current estimate of 1.66 bb for 2026-27. Pointing out once again how it appears that an increase in soybean export estimates for the new crop should be inevitable, providing there are supplies available.
Taking us to the next point: The difficult growing conditions experienced so far this summer. Drought has hit the Northern and Western Corn Belt areas exceptionally hard with their yields expected to take a hit. High overnight temperatures and a very hot July are not likely to impact soybeans as much as corn, but the forecast for the remainder of August likely will. A hot air dome is expected to remain over western Texas, blocking moisture for nearly all the Corn Belt with much-above-normal temperatures returning to the Western Corn Belt -- not ideal conditions for soybean yield. For the Eastern Corn Belt, extensive flooding and storm damage seen over the past week will surely take its toll as well.
Igniting the last leg higher in the soybean market was the annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which concludes Thursday. For the first three days, participants found soybean pod counts that were down from last year across the board and significantly so in some cases, suggesting future declines in yield and production estimates should be expected from USDA.
Given the disappointing tour findings, it's worth noting that as recently as 2022-23, the national yield was only 49.6 bushels per acre (bpa) with 47.4 bpa seen in 2019-20. A 3-bpa cut in yield versus last year to 50 bpa would only be a 5.7% drop (similar to levels found on the crop tour), but it would take another 232 mb out of supply from the current USDA estimate. Given ending stocks are expected to be only 320 mb, price rationing would have to occur under such an outcome to reduce demand. And given the record soybean crush margins seen this year, it would be safe to assume exports would have to fall, not increase as suggested by the new-crop export sales pace to date.
I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.
Mitch Miller can be reached at [email]mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com[/email]
Follow him on social platform X @mgreymiller
(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
For the following chart...
New-crop (2026-27) U.S. soybean export sales to date (shown in green) are more than double the pace seen last year as China has returned to the market in a powerful way. This suggests future export estimates will likely need to be increased, unless limited supply has an impact. (DTN chart, USDA data)