Global corn situation surely to impact Canadian feed grain market

[TechAnalyst]

Canada Markets

Bullish Corn Updates From USDA Could Be Just the Beginning


8/13/2026 | 10:39 AM CDT

By Mitch Miller, DTN Contributing Canadian Grains Analyst

Based on the impressive rally seen in corn following Wednesday's August WASDE update, it appears traders are expecting the normal pattern of bullish revisions to be followed by further bullish revisions. And who could blame them based on the data?

To begin with, it's worth pointing out that the 75 million bushels (mb) increase in the 2025-26 corn export estimate took ending stocks down to 1.945 billion bushels (bb) compared to USDA's January estimate of 2.227 bb. With 2026-27 corn ending stocks already down to 1.653 bb, there is no room for such a repeated tightening in future reports. Yet there are plenty of reasons to expect it.

New-crop export estimates are still 125 mb below old-crop despite the smaller corn crop in Europe and the war impacting shipping from the Black Sea region. On that front, USDA only reduced Ukraine corn exports by 1 mmt while Ukraine expects it will be 9 mmt below USDA's July estimate. As suggested earlier, USDA's conservative approach should leave the modest reduction in the August update a surprise to no one -- but barring a surprisingly quick end to the war between Ukraine and Russia, future cuts to exports from the region should be a foregone conclusion.

It's worth noting that even though USDA increased the Brazilian corn production estimate for 2025-26 by 2 mmt, it cut its export estimate by 1 mmt due to continued growth in Brazil's domestic use. For 2026-27, Brazil's corn export estimate is unchanged (at 2 mmt above the 2025-26 level). Argentina's totals were left unchanged from last month with a bumper crop already expected to provide sharply higher exports for 2025-26 but a return to more normal levels for 2026-27.

In short, it appears the U.S. will be called upon to make up for the increased import requirements from Europe (primarily). On that front, USDA was likely overly optimistic there as well with the EU corn import estimate only being increased by 1 mmt despite a 3.6-mmt cut in production estimates -- all suggesting future increases in 2026-27 U.S. corn export estimates are likely.

On the supply side, a small crop tends to get smaller. With USDA surprising the trade on how aggressively it cut corn yield this soon, it would be reasonable to expect further reductions in future reports. At 180.7 bushels per acre (bpa), it came in much below the average pre-report estimate of 182.4 bpa and ended up close to the lowest pre-report estimate of 180.5 bpa. Not to toot our own horn, but DTN's Digital Tour national yield estimate of 178.5 bpa is looking pretty good right now. All suggesting further yield and production reductions are likely.

Regarding the surprise increase in planted acres (for the second year in a row), one would expect the revisions Wednesday could be it considering the combined corn and soybean total area already exceeds the previous seeded acre record by 3.5 million. In fact, given the level of silage interest being reported in drought-stricken areas of the Western Corn Belt, the harvested acres as a percent of seeded could very well fall from the August estimate. A rate similar to that seen in 2024-25 would result in 300,000 fewer harvested acres from the same seeded area.

So, if corn exports do climb by 125 mb for 2026-27 to match 2025-26 record levels, and production does fall by 175 mb should the final yield match DTN's 178.5 bpa (current) estimate while harvest acres remain unchanged, ending stocks would be an unrealistic 1.353 bb. Price rationing would be required to prevent that from happening as it would result in a stocks-to-use ratio of only 8.2%. Far too tight for comfort.

I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.

Mitch Miller can be reached at [email]mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com[/email]

Follow him on social platform X @mgreymiller

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.

For the following chart...

USDA's outlook for corn exports from Ukraine and Russia combined appears to be far too optimistic given the ongoing attacks in the Black Sea region. With only a 1-mmt reduction this month (when Ukraine officials suggest it will likely be 9 mmt), the 2026-27 estimate in green (at 25.8 mmt) is only 1 mmt below the 15-year average. (DTN chart, USDA Data)

[ColevilleH2S]

The amount of friction to moving grains out of the Black Sea is continuously getting worse. I wonder how long it takes for the market to realize.

More drones, less manpower, less fuel, fewer ships, fewer ports.

[TASFarms]

I would think someone is tryn to buy as much as possible as cheap as possible. $25 canola might happen yet this year.

[shtferbrains]

"This was in the recent Doomberg noting the escalation of the attacks on Russian grain shipping by Ukrainian followed by Putin focusing attacks on Odessa, Ukraine’s only remaining grain port;

"The near-term effects have been disturbingly clear. Since July 22, the Russian military has effectively closed the Ukrainian port complex in and around Odessa to all shipping. The loss of its remaining deep-water ports is already having a devastating effect on Ukraine’s agricultural exports — the backbone of its economy — which officials warn may plummet by 50% in the coming months because alternative land, rail, and river routes have much less capacity and are much more costly.”

FWIW

Worth a read.

[url]https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/a-minor-detail[/url]

[ColevilleH2S]

Looking at futures, of all our inputs Urea, ULSDiesel and Crude are front month loaded. No carry, the longer out into the future you price the lower the value.

Other than soybean oil, all grain commodities have a carry. With Corn and wheat having more than a 7% carry between the September and March contracts.

Is this telling us to hold off on next years input purchases and also lock the bins on crop sales?

[Old Cowzilla]

HUMMMM Lots of my neighbors will be hauling there locked in $14 canola priced before seeding to pay this years overpriced fert bill. Bins will be full of cheap wheat that doesn't seem to respond to all this world crap. Maybe the backgrounders will be eating $5 oats this winter

[shtferbrains]

Might be large quantities of light oats in self feeders starting calves.?
Lots of oats here normaly go into cars straight to Quaker where they are graded at the plant.
Gets very inconvenient if they don't grade and they roll the car by.
Not ideal weather to produce heavy oats?

[TechAnalyst]

Looking at futures, of all our inputs Urea, ULSDiesel and Crude are front month loaded. No carry, the longer out into the future you price the lower the value.

Other than soybean oil, all grain commodities have a carry. With Corn and wheat having more than a 7% carry between the September and March contracts.

Is this telling us to hold off on next years input purchases and also lock the bins on crop sales?

Regarding inputs, I would suggest that the constant unfounded optimism over the opening of the Strait of Hormuz should be looked at as an opportunity to try to lock in lower input prices (by taking advantage of the lower deferred contract prices).

I posted this in April when August ULS Diesel was near $3/gallon. That contract has expired now but not before hitting almost $4.30/gallon. For those so inclined, it did present an excellent risk management opportunity as suggested...


Canada Markets

Fragile Ceasefire Presents Energy Risk Management Opportunity


4/8/2026 | 11:20 AM CDT

By Mitch Miller, DTN Contributing Canadian Grains Analyst

With no indication the fragile ceasefire agreement reached at the last-minute Tuesday had as much to do with long-term solutions as it did in providing a way to de-escalate the grave situation, an opportunity may be presenting itself for those so inclined to manage risk of another spike in energy prices. Especially for fall use of diesel in the case of crop producers who may be reading this.

Spring fuel demands are one thing, but the amount of diesel burnt in the fall is another beast all together. Not to mention fuel tanks may already be full to look after seeding requirements. The silver lining in both the inverted energy markets and the two-week ceasefire is they present an opportunity to manage fuel price risk.

Regarding the ceasefire, as it may be the most fleeting, there is every reason to believe it served its purpose in de-escalating the situation on Tuesday but is unlikely to survive. The Trump administration has already indicated it has a vastly different plan on most of what Iran was demanding in its 10-point proposal that was the basis of the agreement.

Trump has posted on social media that the U.S. will be "helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz" and the toll Iran says it will collect could be a joint venture with the U.S. In the meantime, Iran has been firm on that point -- they will control the passage of vessels (as has been the case for the past month) and collect a $2 million toll per vessel, which they will share with Oman. One problem lies within Iranian reports that they only intend on letting 10 to 15 vessels through over the two-week negotiation period as leverage in bargaining, given their lack of trust in the U.S. So essentially status quo regarding the traffic through the Strait.

Trump also posted that the U.S. will be "hangin' around in order to make sure that everything goes well." Yet one of the Iranian demands were withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region. In addition, Israel has confirmed it will abide by the deal other than reiterating that it will continue to attack Lebanon -- another point that goes against the Iranian demands. And Israel has already continued to do so.

Completely different opinions on future uranium enrichment and plans for nuclear material inventory are further examples of the challenges likely preventing this from resulting in a long-term peace agreement.

One of the other glaring problems lies within the questionable leadership of Iran itself. It is the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) that claims to be in charge and does not appear to be part of the agreement process. Yet it is clearly in control of the weaponry given attacks since the agreement on the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Israel and the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia. And warnings of a forceful response to any attack against Iran.

It's worth noting at this stage all ship owners making statements so far have suggested they will not be testing the IRGC's resolve in enforcing their control over the Strait of Hormuz. They will await further clarity and essentially leave traffic through the Strait at a standstill (other than Iranian-connected tankers).

In the event the ceasefire does fail, the nearby ULSD contract has highlighted the risks that lie ahead for the summer and fall. Diesel prices went from $2.0239/gallon on Jan. 7 to $4.6129/gallon on Apr. 7. That makes the Wednesday morning low for the August ULSD contract of $3.0780/gallon look quite reasonable.

There are two main reasons the deferred contracts are relatively cheaply priced. The first is the optimism that, by then, the war will be a distant memory, the Strait of Hormuz will be operating normally, and global supplies of refined products will be much more ample. All of which could be wishful thinking compared to the reality of rebuilding damaged or destroyed energy infrastructure in the region and Iran's insistence that it will permanently control the Strait going forward.

The second reason is related to risk management in trading. Bull spreading is a term describing the buying of the nearby contract and managing risk (associated with an event such as Tuesday's ceasefire) by selling a deferred contract. When physical supplies are tight, contract prices go inverted with a premium placed on immediate delivery. The more concern there is about availability of physical supply, the greater the premium for nearby contracts (or the greater the inverse in price). That does not necessarily mean fundamentals are bearish on deferred contracts as much as they are being sold for risk management purposes. Then as time passes, those short positions are bought back and as the deferred contract becomes the nearby one, it experiences even greater buying interest if the physical supply concerns remain. In this case, in July, as the August contract becomes the nearby futures contract, bull spreading could inspire it to take out the spring high price should the conflict be unresolved. Just going into harvest fuel demand.

Something to keep in mind while exploring risk management options available to you.

For further information, see the March post at and the December post on the topic at .

I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.

Mitch Miller can be reached at

Follow him on social platform X @mgreymiller



(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.

For the following chart...

A picture is worth a thousand words. The difference between the August Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) contract in blue and the nearby ULSD contract in black shows how much risk can be managed for harvest diesel requirements, for those so inclined. (DTN ProphetX chart)