Canada Markets
July AAFC Update Offers Revised Look at New-Crop Ending Stocks
7/29/2026 | 9:23 AM CDT
By Mitch Miller, DTN Contributing Canadian Grains Analyst
In its July update, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) released its first look at 2026-27 crop-year projections using Statistics Canada's Principal Field Crop Area Estimates combined with the first Canadian Crop Yield Forecast (CCYF) report for 2026 to arrive at revised production estimates. Those were followed by adjustments to demand and ending stocks with a few interesting observations.
Before getting into the specifics of individual crops, it's worth noting yields were increased across the board from previous estimates based on CCYF data. According to AAFC, "The CCYF forecast was produced using the agroclimatic data from May 1 to June 30, 2026, and the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from May 1 to June 28, 2026."
From a cereal point of view, oats may contain the most important information given the delicate balance of tight ending stocks that are expected to be the result of the various changes. With seeded area coming in below expectations last month (and below the last few years), even a slight uptick in yield (from June but down from last year) resulted in a dramatic cut to the crop size. Total production is pegged at 2.94 million metric tons (mmt) compared to 3.379 mmt estimated last month for 2026-27 and much below the 3.92 mmt produced in 2025-26. That will require a sharp drop in feed, waste and dockage (FWD) use to just 773,000 mt from 1.121 mmt in 2025-26, according to AAFC. Even with that demand rationing, ending stocks are expected to fall to 450,000 mt (in green on the accompanying chart) from last month's estimate of 600,000 mt and last year's 800,000 mt forecast. If the late-season hot and dry weather does take a toll on yields, exports will likely have to be cut next, with upward price pressure being the normal outcome.
Barley is in a much more comfortable position with higher-than-expected seeded area estimated in June by Statistics Canada combining with an increased yield to boost production estimates from last month. At 9.2 mmt for 2026-27, the crop would still be below the 9.725 mmt produced in 2025-26 (thanks to a record yield) but did increase dramatically from AAFC's June estimate of 8.339 mmt for 2026-27. That will allow a slight increase in old-crop exports (to 4.07 mmt vs. 2.842 mmt in 2024-25) and a return to more normal exports for new crop than what was previously expected (up 400,000 mt versus last month to 3.3 mmt). The net result will still leave ending stocks relatively tight at 900,000 mt (compared to 970,000 mt in 2025-26 and 1.249 mmt in 2024-25).
Wheat figures could be summed up by higher yields (compared to last month) more than offsetting the lower area than expected in the June report, resulting in a production increase from last month but remaining well below last year. That allowed for increased FWD use versus last month with the only changes to ending stocks being seen in durum wheat, with the 2025-26 total declining by 300,000 mt and the 2026-27 stocks falling by 100,000 mt from last month's estimate.
On the oilseed front, canola did see fairly substantial changes throughout. Prior years had minor tweaks that resulted in slight upticks in ending stocks for both 2024-25 and 2025-26. Those will likely be lowered in the August update as the revised 2025-26 export estimate still appears too low. It was bumped up to 8.5 mmt (from 8.4 mmt last month) but the CGC weekly Grain Statistics report showed 8.73 mmt was already exported by week 50 (with two weeks remaining in the marketing year). That would suggest final exports may be closer to 9 mmt for the old crop.
Interestingly enough, the 2025-26 crush estimate may also be too low. It was left unchanged at 12.1 mmt but 12.078 mmt has already disappeared domestically in the first 50 weeks according to CGC data. At 250,000 mt per week or so, another 400,000 mt may be shaved off 2025-26 ending stocks yet. Looking ahead at the August update, the combined increase in exports and crush could lower 2025-26 canola ending stocks from the current estimate of 2.725 mmt to something below 2 mmt (but still higher than the 2024-25 ending stocks level of 1.597 mmt).
Regarding the 2026-27 update, the increased area reported in June combined with a slight uptick in yield to result in an increase of 1.8 mmt in production compared to last month. The current 21 mmt new-crop production estimate is still below the 2025-26 record crop of 21.809 mmt due to a retreat from the record yield seen at the time. An interesting part of the new-crop story is the increase in the crush estimate as new capacity comes online. Food and industrial use was increased 500,000 mt from last month thanks to the larger production estimate, taking it to 13.5 mmt from 12.1 mmt forecast for 2025-26. In the meantime, exports are already having to be curtailed at just 8 mmt compared to 8.5 mmt in 2025-26 and 9.379 mmt the year before. That is expected to leave ending stocks of 2.074 mmt for 2026-27 but if the old-crop demand does turn out to be revised higher in future updates (revising new-crop carry-in stocks lower) -- ending stocks for the new-crop will be at or below minimum pipeline levels, requiring additional demand rationing (presumably by curtailing exports further).
I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.
Mitch Miller can be reached at [email]mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com[/email]
Follow him on social platform X @mgreymiller
(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
For the following chart...
With Canadian oat area coming in surprisingly low for 2026-27 and AAFC having its first in-crop yield forecast available, their July update points to a historically tight oats ending stocks figure (in green). (DTN chart, AAFC and Statistics Canada data)
July AAFC Update Offers Revised Look at New-Crop Ending Stocks
7/29/2026 | 9:23 AM CDT
By Mitch Miller, DTN Contributing Canadian Grains Analyst
In its July update, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) released its first look at 2026-27 crop-year projections using Statistics Canada's Principal Field Crop Area Estimates combined with the first Canadian Crop Yield Forecast (CCYF) report for 2026 to arrive at revised production estimates. Those were followed by adjustments to demand and ending stocks with a few interesting observations.
Before getting into the specifics of individual crops, it's worth noting yields were increased across the board from previous estimates based on CCYF data. According to AAFC, "The CCYF forecast was produced using the agroclimatic data from May 1 to June 30, 2026, and the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from May 1 to June 28, 2026."
From a cereal point of view, oats may contain the most important information given the delicate balance of tight ending stocks that are expected to be the result of the various changes. With seeded area coming in below expectations last month (and below the last few years), even a slight uptick in yield (from June but down from last year) resulted in a dramatic cut to the crop size. Total production is pegged at 2.94 million metric tons (mmt) compared to 3.379 mmt estimated last month for 2026-27 and much below the 3.92 mmt produced in 2025-26. That will require a sharp drop in feed, waste and dockage (FWD) use to just 773,000 mt from 1.121 mmt in 2025-26, according to AAFC. Even with that demand rationing, ending stocks are expected to fall to 450,000 mt (in green on the accompanying chart) from last month's estimate of 600,000 mt and last year's 800,000 mt forecast. If the late-season hot and dry weather does take a toll on yields, exports will likely have to be cut next, with upward price pressure being the normal outcome.
Barley is in a much more comfortable position with higher-than-expected seeded area estimated in June by Statistics Canada combining with an increased yield to boost production estimates from last month. At 9.2 mmt for 2026-27, the crop would still be below the 9.725 mmt produced in 2025-26 (thanks to a record yield) but did increase dramatically from AAFC's June estimate of 8.339 mmt for 2026-27. That will allow a slight increase in old-crop exports (to 4.07 mmt vs. 2.842 mmt in 2024-25) and a return to more normal exports for new crop than what was previously expected (up 400,000 mt versus last month to 3.3 mmt). The net result will still leave ending stocks relatively tight at 900,000 mt (compared to 970,000 mt in 2025-26 and 1.249 mmt in 2024-25).
Wheat figures could be summed up by higher yields (compared to last month) more than offsetting the lower area than expected in the June report, resulting in a production increase from last month but remaining well below last year. That allowed for increased FWD use versus last month with the only changes to ending stocks being seen in durum wheat, with the 2025-26 total declining by 300,000 mt and the 2026-27 stocks falling by 100,000 mt from last month's estimate.
On the oilseed front, canola did see fairly substantial changes throughout. Prior years had minor tweaks that resulted in slight upticks in ending stocks for both 2024-25 and 2025-26. Those will likely be lowered in the August update as the revised 2025-26 export estimate still appears too low. It was bumped up to 8.5 mmt (from 8.4 mmt last month) but the CGC weekly Grain Statistics report showed 8.73 mmt was already exported by week 50 (with two weeks remaining in the marketing year). That would suggest final exports may be closer to 9 mmt for the old crop.
Interestingly enough, the 2025-26 crush estimate may also be too low. It was left unchanged at 12.1 mmt but 12.078 mmt has already disappeared domestically in the first 50 weeks according to CGC data. At 250,000 mt per week or so, another 400,000 mt may be shaved off 2025-26 ending stocks yet. Looking ahead at the August update, the combined increase in exports and crush could lower 2025-26 canola ending stocks from the current estimate of 2.725 mmt to something below 2 mmt (but still higher than the 2024-25 ending stocks level of 1.597 mmt).
Regarding the 2026-27 update, the increased area reported in June combined with a slight uptick in yield to result in an increase of 1.8 mmt in production compared to last month. The current 21 mmt new-crop production estimate is still below the 2025-26 record crop of 21.809 mmt due to a retreat from the record yield seen at the time. An interesting part of the new-crop story is the increase in the crush estimate as new capacity comes online. Food and industrial use was increased 500,000 mt from last month thanks to the larger production estimate, taking it to 13.5 mmt from 12.1 mmt forecast for 2025-26. In the meantime, exports are already having to be curtailed at just 8 mmt compared to 8.5 mmt in 2025-26 and 9.379 mmt the year before. That is expected to leave ending stocks of 2.074 mmt for 2026-27 but if the old-crop demand does turn out to be revised higher in future updates (revising new-crop carry-in stocks lower) -- ending stocks for the new-crop will be at or below minimum pipeline levels, requiring additional demand rationing (presumably by curtailing exports further).
I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.
Mitch Miller can be reached at [email]mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com[/email]
Follow him on social platform X @mgreymiller
(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
For the following chart...
With Canadian oat area coming in surprisingly low for 2026-27 and AAFC having its first in-crop yield forecast available, their July update points to a historically tight oats ending stocks figure (in green). (DTN chart, AAFC and Statistics Canada data)
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