Canola Demand Could Jump 2.7M Tonnes on Co-Processing

[wheatking16]

Today's Daily Kernel has some articles that I found interesting.

Canola demand and equipment scams.

Of course, I picked them, so my bias is in.


[url]https://www.dailykernel.ca/p/canola-demand-could-jump-2-7m-tonnes-on-co-processing[/url]

The Big Bin: Refiners Just Found a Back Door Into Canola

Remember last week, when we told you one in every three canola acres already ends up in a fuel tank?

Turns out that was only the first engine.

Here's the second one.

What happened. At Seeds Canada's annual meeting, biofuel folks laid out the math on co-processing — and it's a big number. If refiners in Ontario and Western Canada ran just 10% co-processing in their catalytic crackers and 5% in their hydrotreaters, it would create a brand-new market for 2.7 million tonnes of canola oil a year.

That's roughly five crush plants' worth of demand — conjured out of refineries that already exist.

Why it happened. Co-processing is the lazy-genius version of biofuel. Instead of building a billion-dollar renewable diesel plant, a refiner just pours refined, bleached and deodorized canola oil into the crude stream and runs it through the units it already owns. Out the other end comes lower-carbon gasoline, diesel and jet fuel — plus carbon credits under the Clean Fuel Regulations.

✅ Already an approved CFR pathway. ✅ Federated Co-operatives' Co-op Refinery Complex in Regina has completed trials on its cat cracker and hydrotreater. ✅ Industry chatter says there isn't a refiner in Canada that isn't at least testing it. ✅ Scale-up potential: nearly 2 billion litres of lower-carbon fuel a year with modest upgrades.

What it means for the farm gate. Crushers have already dropped $2 billion to expand Canadian crush capacity by 40% — a bet that looked a little lonely when Regina's big renewable diesel build got paused. Co-processing is how that capacity gets fed without anyone breaking ground on a new plant.

More domestic crush demand means a firmer basis, less of your canola riding a boat to a customer who may or may not like us that month, and a floor under Nov futures that isn't spelled C-H-I-N-A. That's a demand story you can farm around.

[shtferbrains]

With 70% of the Canola going to Crushers who are not going to get outbid at current crush margins, is China kind of backed into a corner on getting their needs? Not able to manipulate?
Where else are they going to get big Canola tonnage for near future?

Temporary shift in power positions to the producer possible?

Co-op not going ahead with their crush plant was a big mistake?

[furrowtickler]

With 50% of canola in very serious trouble in western Canada right now , it’s going to get very very interesting

[furrowtickler]

Add in a potential explosion of berthas ,
ahhh farming soooooo easy

[Old Cowzilla]

Some of the canola isn't blooming very long wonder what that means

[Dr Tone]

Add in a potential explosion of berthas ,
ahhh farming soooooo easy

We had an explosion last year.

[furrowtickler]

We had an explosion last year.

It’s comin here I fear

[biglentil]

The 35C weekend convinced the early canola to give up on flowering, once again big biomass wont necessary mean a big yield. Bushels dropping off quickly ..... need a rain... again.

[errolanderson]

Placed an alert out to my subscribers last night. Canola appears in a breakout to the upside. Old technical support lines of $820/MT and $825/MT may be the next resistance targets for Nov canola.

Oil a key driver along with big domestic crush demand heading into 2027.

errolanderson.substack.com

[Dr Tone]

That $825/MT resistance didn't hold up long. Is someone spouting the largest Canola crop in the history of the world already?