USDA July Crop Report Bullish Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

[AgrivilleAdmin]

The USDA July crop report was bullish/friendly corn, soybeans and wheat futures.

The next 10 days remains hot/dry for the Canadian Prairies, U.S. Northern Plains and Western Midwest but models are in disagreement.

China bought 736,000 mt of U.S. soybeans this week.

U.S. crop conditions remain below last year and falling.

Be careful what you wish for because with the rain comes severe damaging weather!

U.S./Iran war ceasefire over or jus more noise?

+ CFTC

[AgrivilleAdmin]

Sorry folks Moe said Bay of Azov in Russia but it's known as the Sea of Azov and the closure is why wheat was also higher today. Hit the subscribe button. Thoughts on the weather outlook is the heat and too much moisture reducing yields?

[errolanderson]

USDA data provided shortcovering fuel, but the war flare-up triggered follow-through buying. UR attack on Russian ships ignited concerns of wheat shipment delays in the Black Sea this week. Wheat futures rocketing this week! My suggestion / strategy to wheat growers is: KEEP YOUR POWDER DRY. World wheat trade may be erratic and global stocks are apt to decline in 2027. Basis levels should improve over the next few months. Also, a severe El Niño weather event is expected to impact global markets by late summer and fall.

Note: U.S. corn export prices are now the cheapest in the world, discounted to both Argentina and Brazil. Can corn prices move higher? Rising barley bids? You betcha . . . .

Canola is rolling higher this week largely due to crude oil gains, but the demand structure looks promising heading into 2927. Here’s a look at Jan canola . . . .

New crop canola futures are again threatening to test contract highs. Nov canola has resistance around $805/MT. Jan canola has resistance around $811/MT. But if it breaks, Jan approaching $825/MT may be in-the-gunsights. On-a-pullback, key Jan support lies around $746/MT. A crude oil plunge required to trigger a pullback.

But the bottomline is; ICE canola futures are now in a new and overall higher trading window . . . .

PS: The longterm cattle bull market may have broke. Box beef and cash cattle prices down sharply.

Errol’s Commodity Wire, Calgary
errolanderson.substack.com

[errolanderson]

Grains in-recovery and cattle break . . . .

Cattle board ( live and feeders) now breaking. . . . . In the past three (3) weeks, feeder futures have plunged nearly $40/cwt. Bottomline, the beef consumer is financially stressed. Demand is king, not supply in the commodity world. Albeit, Jan feeders are technically oversold approaching $330/cwt (SEE CHART), but should this support break, next leg down seen approaching $311/cwt.

Market direction in several key commodities are changing . . . .