Canada Markets
Lower-Than-Expected Wheat Area Reported for All of North America
7/2/2026 | 10:24 AM CDT
By Mitch Miller, DTN Contributing Canadian Grains Analyst
Before proceeding with a recap of the Statistics Canada's June principal field crop areas report, I would not be doing the most important data released Tuesday justice without highlighting the miss on total wheat acres on both sides of the border.
As you can see on the accompanying chart, all-wheat harvested area in the U.S. is expected to fall to the lowest level found in modern-day records. Reports suggest one must go back almost 150 years to find a lower total seeded area for wheat in the U.S. The result was released Tuesday by the USDA when it surprised the market with a greater-than-expected decline in seeded and harvested acres for all wheat. Seeded area came in at 42.740 million acres, a full 1.118 million below the average pre-report estimate and 2.588 million below last year. More importantly, the harvest area fell much further thanks to the intense drought seen this spring. In that case, all-wheat harvested area fell to 32.063 million (in green on the accompanying chart) from 37.241 million last year or a full 5.178 million lower. That did trigger a quick $0.30/bushel rally from pre-report lows in Chicago with bottom formations being left on the daily charts for all three U.S. wheat exchanges.
The surprise south of the border came hours after Statistics Canada had done the same on the north side of the border with a miss on total wheat area seeded in Canada. They reported 25.330 million acres of total wheat area when the market was expecting 26.3 million following a March intentions estimate of 26.74 million from Statistics Canada. That will mark a decline from 26.925 million last year and 26.648 million in 2024-25.
Durum wheat growers will want to know that durum acres also missed expectations with Statistics Canada reporting 5.860 million acres seeded compared to 6.532 million last year and a March intentions estimate of 6.38 million. The U.S. was similar with durum wheat area falling below last year and expectations; 1.830 million acres were seeded compared to pre-report estimates of 1.976 million and last year's 2.185 million.
The other bullish surprise came from the oat figure from Statistics Canada with only 2.545 million acres seeded compared to a March intentions estimate of 2.9 million and last year's 2.996 million. That will also be down from 2024-25 levels of 2.9 million, resulting in a strong positive price response since the report was released.
Canola was on the other end of the spectrum with area increasing on both sides of the border. Statistics Canada pegged the canola seeded area at 23.442 million acres, up from 21.623 million last year and above the pre-report estimate of 22.4 million. It also exceeded the March intentions report estimate of 21.84 million but did fall below the highest pre-report estimate of 24 million, helping to limit the market impact. If realized, that would set a new record for seeded area for canola. But it is worth noting that the data was based on a survey conducted from May 15 to June 12, so farmers would have still been optimistic about getting all intended acres planted. As the June 20 deadline for crop insurance passed, it was clear some areas will go unseeded this year with flooding rains in June surely to have taken more than normal amounts out of production since then.
Not that it is a major market factor, but it is worth noting that canola acres did increase this year in the U.S. as well with 2.965 million acres seeded compared to 2.339 million last year.
Barley results were also leaning toward the bearish side, also coming in above both 2025 levels and the March intentions report. At 6.704 million acres seeded compared to 6.136 million last year and an intentions estimate of 6.440 million, it may weigh on prices slightly.
Canadian corn (for grain) area ended up fairly close to the March intentions report with an estimated 3.963 million acres seeded compared to 3.782 million last year and an intentions estimate of 3.850 million.
Canadian soybean area ended up at an estimated 5.961 million acres seeded compared to 5.782 million last year and an intentions estimate of 5.890 million.
Lentil area came in at only 3.902 million acres seeded compared to 4.380 million last year and an intentions estimate of 4.14 million. Dry peas came in at an estimated 3.03 million acres seeded compared to 3.510 million last year and an intentions estimate of 3.078 million.
I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.
Mitch Miller can be reached at [email]mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com[/email]
Follow him on social platform X @mgreymiller
(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
For the following chart...
The surprising miss in the all-wheat acreage estimate in the U.S. (as reported Tuesday by the USDA) should not be overlooked with it only adding to the bullish data from Statistics Canada's June principal field crop areas report released earlier in the day. The 2026-27 all-wheat harvested area in the U.S. (in green) will be the lowest in well over a century, confirming poor economics and drought damage have taken their toll. (DTN chart, USDA Data)
Lower-Than-Expected Wheat Area Reported for All of North America
7/2/2026 | 10:24 AM CDT
By Mitch Miller, DTN Contributing Canadian Grains Analyst
Before proceeding with a recap of the Statistics Canada's June principal field crop areas report, I would not be doing the most important data released Tuesday justice without highlighting the miss on total wheat acres on both sides of the border.
As you can see on the accompanying chart, all-wheat harvested area in the U.S. is expected to fall to the lowest level found in modern-day records. Reports suggest one must go back almost 150 years to find a lower total seeded area for wheat in the U.S. The result was released Tuesday by the USDA when it surprised the market with a greater-than-expected decline in seeded and harvested acres for all wheat. Seeded area came in at 42.740 million acres, a full 1.118 million below the average pre-report estimate and 2.588 million below last year. More importantly, the harvest area fell much further thanks to the intense drought seen this spring. In that case, all-wheat harvested area fell to 32.063 million (in green on the accompanying chart) from 37.241 million last year or a full 5.178 million lower. That did trigger a quick $0.30/bushel rally from pre-report lows in Chicago with bottom formations being left on the daily charts for all three U.S. wheat exchanges.
The surprise south of the border came hours after Statistics Canada had done the same on the north side of the border with a miss on total wheat area seeded in Canada. They reported 25.330 million acres of total wheat area when the market was expecting 26.3 million following a March intentions estimate of 26.74 million from Statistics Canada. That will mark a decline from 26.925 million last year and 26.648 million in 2024-25.
Durum wheat growers will want to know that durum acres also missed expectations with Statistics Canada reporting 5.860 million acres seeded compared to 6.532 million last year and a March intentions estimate of 6.38 million. The U.S. was similar with durum wheat area falling below last year and expectations; 1.830 million acres were seeded compared to pre-report estimates of 1.976 million and last year's 2.185 million.
The other bullish surprise came from the oat figure from Statistics Canada with only 2.545 million acres seeded compared to a March intentions estimate of 2.9 million and last year's 2.996 million. That will also be down from 2024-25 levels of 2.9 million, resulting in a strong positive price response since the report was released.
Canola was on the other end of the spectrum with area increasing on both sides of the border. Statistics Canada pegged the canola seeded area at 23.442 million acres, up from 21.623 million last year and above the pre-report estimate of 22.4 million. It also exceeded the March intentions report estimate of 21.84 million but did fall below the highest pre-report estimate of 24 million, helping to limit the market impact. If realized, that would set a new record for seeded area for canola. But it is worth noting that the data was based on a survey conducted from May 15 to June 12, so farmers would have still been optimistic about getting all intended acres planted. As the June 20 deadline for crop insurance passed, it was clear some areas will go unseeded this year with flooding rains in June surely to have taken more than normal amounts out of production since then.
Not that it is a major market factor, but it is worth noting that canola acres did increase this year in the U.S. as well with 2.965 million acres seeded compared to 2.339 million last year.
Barley results were also leaning toward the bearish side, also coming in above both 2025 levels and the March intentions report. At 6.704 million acres seeded compared to 6.136 million last year and an intentions estimate of 6.440 million, it may weigh on prices slightly.
Canadian corn (for grain) area ended up fairly close to the March intentions report with an estimated 3.963 million acres seeded compared to 3.782 million last year and an intentions estimate of 3.850 million.
Canadian soybean area ended up at an estimated 5.961 million acres seeded compared to 5.782 million last year and an intentions estimate of 5.890 million.
Lentil area came in at only 3.902 million acres seeded compared to 4.380 million last year and an intentions estimate of 4.14 million. Dry peas came in at an estimated 3.03 million acres seeded compared to 3.510 million last year and an intentions estimate of 3.078 million.
I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.
Mitch Miller can be reached at [email]mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com[/email]
Follow him on social platform X @mgreymiller
(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
For the following chart...
The surprising miss in the all-wheat acreage estimate in the U.S. (as reported Tuesday by the USDA) should not be overlooked with it only adding to the bullish data from Statistics Canada's June principal field crop areas report released earlier in the day. The 2026-27 all-wheat harvested area in the U.S. (in green) will be the lowest in well over a century, confirming poor economics and drought damage have taken their toll. (DTN chart, USDA Data)
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