Canada Markets
China's Dwindling Corn Stockpile May Encourage Imports
5/20/2026 | 10:42 AM CDT
By Mitch Miller, DTN Contributing Canadian Grains Analyst
With details emerging over the weekend that China has committed to purchasing an additional $17 billion in U.S. ag products (annually for the next three years), corn imports stand out as a very reasonable contender.
I must start by addressing the elephant in the room -- being the questionable data regarding China's situation. As a communist country, data is often biased toward what the ruling powers would like it to be. Case in point, the dramatic rise in ending stocks seen a decade ago that many still question. So much so that even USDA began publishing world supply and demand data totals that exclude China. But we must work with what we have.
And as you can see on the accompanying chart, what we have is the result of China's growing domestic consumption that has been outpacing production for the better part of the past decade. At face value, that has resulted in a 56.413 million metric tons (mmt) decline in their ending stocks over a decade, from 222.541 mmt in 2017-18 to 166.128 mmt projected for 2026-27 ending stocks.
During that period, China's domestic corn consumption rose from 263 mmt to 325 mmt for a 62 mmt annual increase. Meanwhile, annual production has only increased by 48 mmt per year (from 259 mmt to 307 mmt), with the shortfall chewing into the supply cushion.
As of the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) update, China's corn imports for 2026-27 are forecast to remain steady versus 2025-26 estimates of 6 mmt (which was reduced from the April WASDE estimate of 8 mmt), but higher than the actual 1.82 mmt that China imported in 2024-25. For reference, that was down sharply from the 23.33 mmt that they imported in 2023-24, 18.71 mmt of imports in 2022-23 and corn imports of 21.88 mmt in 2021-22.
Supporting the theory that corn may be on China's shopping list is the strength of the Dalian corn market (in China). Prices backed off slightly in May but by late April, Dalian corn had traded up to levels not seen since July 2024. That followed a consistent rally off harvest lows set last October when a wet fall had impacted crop quality by the time harvest was completed.
Besides it being a factor that needs to be on the radar for the corn market amid a forecast decline in U.S. production and record demand, the tightening corn supplies in China need to be in western Canadian barley producers' thoughts while formulating marketing plans. It has already likely been a contributing factor in China's strong appetite for Canadian barley over the past winter, with more business likely to come.
I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.
Mitch Miller can be reached at [email]mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com[/email]
Follow him on social platform X @mgreymiller
(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
For the following chart...
Following years of China's domestic corn consumption exceeding its production, ending stocks (with 2026-27 in green) are falling rather significantly due to the lack of imports to compensate for it. (DTN chart, USDA data)
China's Dwindling Corn Stockpile May Encourage Imports
5/20/2026 | 10:42 AM CDT
By Mitch Miller, DTN Contributing Canadian Grains Analyst
With details emerging over the weekend that China has committed to purchasing an additional $17 billion in U.S. ag products (annually for the next three years), corn imports stand out as a very reasonable contender.
I must start by addressing the elephant in the room -- being the questionable data regarding China's situation. As a communist country, data is often biased toward what the ruling powers would like it to be. Case in point, the dramatic rise in ending stocks seen a decade ago that many still question. So much so that even USDA began publishing world supply and demand data totals that exclude China. But we must work with what we have.
And as you can see on the accompanying chart, what we have is the result of China's growing domestic consumption that has been outpacing production for the better part of the past decade. At face value, that has resulted in a 56.413 million metric tons (mmt) decline in their ending stocks over a decade, from 222.541 mmt in 2017-18 to 166.128 mmt projected for 2026-27 ending stocks.
During that period, China's domestic corn consumption rose from 263 mmt to 325 mmt for a 62 mmt annual increase. Meanwhile, annual production has only increased by 48 mmt per year (from 259 mmt to 307 mmt), with the shortfall chewing into the supply cushion.
As of the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) update, China's corn imports for 2026-27 are forecast to remain steady versus 2025-26 estimates of 6 mmt (which was reduced from the April WASDE estimate of 8 mmt), but higher than the actual 1.82 mmt that China imported in 2024-25. For reference, that was down sharply from the 23.33 mmt that they imported in 2023-24, 18.71 mmt of imports in 2022-23 and corn imports of 21.88 mmt in 2021-22.
Supporting the theory that corn may be on China's shopping list is the strength of the Dalian corn market (in China). Prices backed off slightly in May but by late April, Dalian corn had traded up to levels not seen since July 2024. That followed a consistent rally off harvest lows set last October when a wet fall had impacted crop quality by the time harvest was completed.
Besides it being a factor that needs to be on the radar for the corn market amid a forecast decline in U.S. production and record demand, the tightening corn supplies in China need to be in western Canadian barley producers' thoughts while formulating marketing plans. It has already likely been a contributing factor in China's strong appetite for Canadian barley over the past winter, with more business likely to come.
I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.
Mitch Miller can be reached at [email]mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com[/email]
Follow him on social platform X @mgreymiller
(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
For the following chart...
Following years of China's domestic corn consumption exceeding its production, ending stocks (with 2026-27 in green) are falling rather significantly due to the lack of imports to compensate for it. (DTN chart, USDA data)
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