Bond Market is King

**TechAnalyst** · May 19, 2026, 17:20

The bond market will likely force an escalation of the war with Iran as well.

Currently all sides believe that they have the upper hand and can outlast the other, satisfied with the standoff.

But markets aren’t buying it with reserves being depleted at a record pace. Nothing changing is turning bullish for energy prices, stoking inflation (actually stagflation) fears and driving up interest rates (with declining bond prices).

Interest rates at these levels were enough in the past to inspire the Trump administration to reverse course (the Liberation Day tariff pause was the greatest example). The problem is that options are limited for addressing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz other than a military escalation to try to break something free. It may work but it will likely be volatile in the meantime.

As Errol said, the bond market deserves your attention. Besides impacting your interest costs, it will certainly influence asset values and profitability.

**agstar77** · May 19, 2026, 18:00

Escalation would mean a destruction of oil facilities in the middle east. 100 oil would be cheap. Economic meltdown , all thanks to the orange moron and his bowing to Israel and whatever dirt they have on the pervert.

**wrongway** · May 19, 2026, 21:25

just imagine if in the last 12 years canada had developed its energy industry instead of trying to kill it just how much of a superpower canada would be. because of that blackfaced moron we can't even afford to fuel up the beloved snow birds... what a shit show.

**biglentil** · May 19, 2026, 23:31

The staright of Hormuz closure is not a linear problem but exponential. We are on week 11 of having 20% of the worlds oil and 30% of its Urea shut in. Stockpiles are rapidly dwindling and we are running head on into mathematical reality. A study attributed over half the worlds 8.7B people would not be here without Urea. The math would therefore suggest if 30% of the Urea is taken offline the effect would be 30% of 5B people would also be taken offline. Even if wrong by 90% thats still approximately 150milllion people.

I suggest locking your bins if you can. The consumer panic is around the corner, and this time it won't be just toilet paper. Prices for grains are about to go much much higher imo. Fingers crossed we can do our part and grow a crop considering how wild the weather has been lately.

**Old Cowzilla** · May 20, 2026, 05:38

You guys are not painting a rosy picture for me as I drink my coffee this morning looking out at my feed pens

Maybe I should dump them now and leave the pastures empty. Frost on the windshields again this morning but sunny and maybe 18 today.

**Grain Farmer** · May 20, 2026, 06:16

Originally posted by agstar77 View Post

Escalation would mean a destruction of oil facilities in the middle east. 100 oil would be cheap. Economic meltdown , all thanks to the orange moron and his bowing to Israel and whatever dirt they have on the pervert.

War was carney approved. So mention that moron also in your rant.

**Hamloc** · May 20, 2026, 07:03

Originally posted by agstar77 View Post

Escalation would mean a destruction of oil facilities in the middle east. 100 oil would be cheap. Economic meltdown , all thanks to the orange moron and his bowing to Israel and whatever dirt they have on the pervert.

Certainly 90% of what Trump has done has been a failure. But look at Canada, in a world desperate for oil Carney still insists on an escalating industrial carbon tax and billions to be wasted on the largest carbon capture and storage project n the world raising the costs of producing Canadian oil and making Canada a less attractive place to invest.

**foragefarmer** · May 20, 2026, 07:16

Originally posted by biglentil View Post

The staright of Hormuz closure is not a linear problem but exponential. We are on week 11 of having 20% of the worlds oil and 30% of its Urea shut in. Stockpiles are rapidly dwindling and we are running head on into mathematical reality. A study attributed over half the worlds 8.7B people would not be here without Urea. The math would therefore suggest if 30% of the Urea is taken offline the effect would be 30% of 5B people would also be taken offline. Even if wrong by 90% thats still approximately 150milllion people.

I suggest locking your bins if you can. The consumer panic is around the corner, and this time it won't be just toilet paper. Prices for grains are about to go much much higher imo. Fingers crossed we can do our part and grow a crop considering how wild the weather has been lately.

Don't know about all your other numbers, but there is no supply shortage of Urea in the USA, as 35% of their imports for 2025 came from Putin.

During the period of January to August 2025 the imports of Urea from Putin to the USA (Trump) increased by 31%.

Putin is the biggest benefactor of Trumps war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of .Hormuz.

Never mind ending Putin's genocide on Ukraine in 24 hours, Trumps fueling it. No need to end the War with Iran, if Trump really could as Iran is now holding all the cards..

Payola boys, and in this case "follow the money " as some like to say on here as we're certainly going to be forking it out while the crop is a long way from being in the bins.

**agstar77** · May 20, 2026, 10:42

20 % of lng comes from gulf. It won't be back for two years. 95 % of new electrical nrg production last year was renewable in U.S. This mess will just increase the change. Expanding Canada's export would not mean lower costs for us. International oil companies would be the main winners. U.S. oil production is decreasing under Trump.

Bond Market is King