Dams

[agstar77]

When will the dam burst holding back commodity prices? A quick look at charts should give us an idea . All indicators seem to point to a price explosion. Anyone want to start a betting pool? What does polymarket say?

[furrowtickler]

Agree something should give but the buyers think current pit prices are great so my guess basis will just eat up any more of a rally

[TechAnalyst]

In 2022 when energy prices were the same level - canola was around $1,100/mt, soybean oil was 84 cents/pound, soybeans traded around $17/bushel and corn was at $8/bushel.

Be aware of the potential for another great grain robbery as ag markets have been slow to respond to energy gains due to the speed of the price spike.

[agstar77]

Who is pulling puppet strings?

[TechAnalyst]

It’s hard to come up with anything other than the political pressure to keep grain and oilseed prices down to help keep inflation under control.

It’s bad enough to have fuel prices spike, but a spike in food will contribute to a 1970s style inflation shock - guaranteeing higher interest rates instead of lower as Trump demands.

The size of the U.S. (and overall) debt makes it much more painful than it was 46 years ago.

[furrowtickler]

Food prices never came down from the grains / oilseed shortage lived rally in 2022
they got an incredible margin to work with, much like the oilseed crushers

[furrowtickler]

In fact grain and oilseed prices went down over 40% and food prices never did budge lower

[SmallTimeOperator]

My bet is any grains rally won’t start until we get into the month of May when grain buyers will actually have to bid higher than current prices to get the grain rolling into town as everyone is out seeding. A friend in the grain industry told me that every time wheat got above 7 in the past few months, the phone started ringing and that Canola is moving steadily right now at current prices. So there ya have it. It would take farmers to stop selling to bring the price up.

[TechAnalyst]

That’s the elephant in the room - everyone in control wants lower inflation to get elected (or reelected), but No One will acknowledge that it’s the Corporate Greed at every level between the farm gate and the consumer plate that is the Real problem. Or do anything about it.

[agstar77]

It’s hard to come up with anything other than the political pressure to keep grain and oilseed prices down to help keep inflation under control.

It’s bad enough to have fuel prices spike, but a spike in food will contribute to a 1970s style inflation shock - guaranteeing higher interest rates instead of lower as Trump demands.

The size of the U.S. (and overall) debt makes it much more painful than it was 46 years ago.

Exactly. Interesting rates have no where to go but up. This will be a wild ride. This should help inflation. Then there is a war.