Good morning.
Operation Epic Fury has already had some hiccups around the Strait of Hormuz, and a refueling aircraft reportedly went down last night in Iraq. Oil markets reacted immediately—prices are climbing again. Fertilizer markets are reacting even faster.
That raises a question Canadian farmers have asked for years: why didn’t we build more fertilizer plants in Western Canada? We sit on one of the world’s largest supplies of natural gas, the main ingredient in nitrogen fertilizer. Instead of turning that advantage into manufacturing and export strength, we relied on imported product from other parts of the world.
Yes, companies bought cheap inputs globally. But look at who actually benefited. Fertilizer companies posted record profits while farmers never saw the benefit of “cheap fertilizer.” When supply tightened, the cost landed squarely on producers.
Were governments part of the problem? It’s hard to ignore the role of regulation. Canada often stacks rule upon rule on domestic production while allowing imports from countries operating under very different standards. Being the Boy Scout of the global economy sounds noble, but lately it hasn’t paid off.
For too long Canada has allowed itself to be pushed around—by internal politics, regulatory overreach, and short-term thinking. The result is a country that feels increasingly divided.
Two provinces talk openly about separation. British Columbia faces complex governance issues that could eventually see overlapping taxation between municipalities and First Nations. Interprovincial trade barriers still exist inside our own country. And in some provinces, developing natural gas resources is politically harder than simply receiving federal transfer payments.
Meanwhile, housing tells another story. In Toronto, $600,000 buys what many would call a modest shack in a climate with snow half the year. The same money in Florida buys a house with a pool and sunshine most of the year. Young Canadians look at that and wonder how they will ever get ahead.
Many boomers benefited from decades of rising real estate values. But not all of us want to pull the ladder up behind us. The next generation needs opportunity. Instead, they see rising costs, limited housing access, and an immigration system that sometimes seems focused more on numbers than on building the strongest possible workforce.
Agriculture is facing its own version of these pressures.
Grain prices have improved, but wheat is still under $8 and canola around $16 in many areas. Global buyers need our products but resist paying more. At the same time, input costs—from fertilizer to equipment—continue climbing because farmers have little choice but to buy them.
Investors and banks are also starting to demand real cash returns from large agribusiness farms, not just growth projections.
For many Canadian farmers, fertilizer won’t be the immediate issue this spring because they pre-bought product. The bigger concern may come this fall. If conflicts fade but supply chains remain tight, companies may claim shortages while grain prices fall back.
Agriculture needs strong leadership to address this imbalance. Farmers need an Agriculture Minister who understands global markets, input supply chains, and the realities on the ground. What we have now isn’t leadership.
Globally, there are more questions than answers. Ukraine remains affected by war. Parts of South America and Australia face weather and input challenges. Europe lacks abundant natural gas for fertilizer production. Seeding season is approaching quickly, yet fertilizer readiness in some regions is estimated at roughly 22 percent. With those constraints, the question becomes obvious: how will the world produce massive crops?
Closer to home, the Farm Progress Show is happening this week in Regina. Those who attended last year spoke highly of it. I won’t be flying back, but family members are going. One system catching attention is a Brazilian-designed blockage monitoring setup that could be a real improvement for seeding efficiency.
Technology continues to transform farming. Platforms like John Deere Operations Center hold incredible amounts of farm data. The challenge now is making that information usable. Artificial intelligence may be the tool that finally helps farmers turn raw machine data into practical decisions.
Equipment costs, however, are reaching uncomfortable territory. A new John Deere 9RX can approach $2 million, yet a trade-in machine with only 1,800 hours might bring $500,000. That math doesn’t work for many operations.
Then there’s DEF emissions systems. On paper they address environmental goals. In practice, many farmers see constant maintenance headaches and downtime. Removing those systems often improves reliability—but it also complicates resale and trade-in values.
On the positive side, new wheat varieties developed in Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba are being released this spring. Canadian plant breeders continue to do excellent work. The challenge is ensuring that intellectual property systems and global seed markets don’t leave Canadian farmers paying for innovations that generate most of their value elsewhere.
International markets remain unpredictable as well. Cargill is reportedly facing issues in Brazil tied to Chinese soybean roadblocks and games during harvest. When soybeans are piled on the ground during rainy weather, quality losses follow quickly.
In other words, agriculture is once again balancing weather, geopolitics, markets, and technology all at the same time.
Spring is coming fast. In about three weeks this big goose will be heading north again, and farmers will be heading to the fields in under 45 days.
For now, though, it might be time for a drink.
If I missed anything, feel free to add.
Cherry Rum and Coke Slushy recipe that’s a frozen twist on the classic rum and coke with a sweet cherry kick.
Ingredients (makes about 2-3 servings)
• 4 oz rum (white rum for cleaner taste, or spiced/dark rum like Captain Morgan for warmer notes)
• 1-2 oz cherry liqueur (optional but recommended for extra cherry flavor; grenadine works as a substitute if you don’t have it)
• 1 can (12 oz) Coca-Cola (chilled; regular or Cherry Coke for even more cherry punch)
• 1½–2 cups frozen pitted cherries (fresh or bagged; adds natural sweetness and slushy texture)
• 2–2½ cups ice cubes (adjust for desired thickness)
• For garnish: whipped cream, maraschino cherries, and a straw
Instructions
1. Add the rum, cherry liqueur (if using), Coca-Cola, frozen cherries, and ice to a high-powered blender.
2. Blend on high until smooth and slushy (about 30–60 seconds). Stop and sc**** down the sides if needed. If it’s too thick, add a splash more Coke; if too thin, add extra ice.
3. Pour immediately into chilled glasses (lowball or tall glasses work great).
4. Top with a dollop of whipped cream and a maraschino cherry (or two skewered on top for fun).
5. Serve right away while it’s nice and frozen!
Enjoy this week you might need one.
oh the carbon tax goes up again on April 1. Elbows up.
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?Canadians are traveling to the usa. Florida is busy the only ones staying home are the elbows up idiots. If they come south you can spot the, a mile away. Grumpy not happy because they realize gas and food are way cheaper it’s our worthless dollar that’s the problem. So they try to sell to get a great return on their investment.
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