'Record' crops everywhere.

[ajl]

We are being played. It is just like a couple years ago when everywhere on the planet was warming twice as fast as everywhere else. Here is what I think is driving this fake data generation: Farmers are being punished for voting conservative especially US farmers that vote for that Trump guy. 2026 is an election year so overestimate the crop to inflict pain on farmers and then bombard them with propaganda telling them how president Trump has cost them their farm. There are lots of fake videos saying such on u boob right now. Granted there were places with good crops in 2025 but also plenty of areas with substandard crops as well. For example NE Alberta, the peace country, Southwestern SK, my farm, etc. SKfarmer always has a good crop in his hood. Must be nice. Last spring we heard about record Brazil second crop corn. Where is that now? Everybody knows that even if there was record corn in Brazil, some was going to rot before it got to port as they can't handle all that volume in time. Now we have US corn exports well above recent years as buyers who know the crop is not as big as stated wisely bought at fire sale prices. US corn exports to canuckistan are forecast to drop as they don't have enough corn. China is buying commodities through 3rd parties. All of this is evidence that this crop is not a record. By next summer a scramble for supplies will be on especially if new crop is late this year as opposed to early in 2025. That is how the crushers did not run out of canola this past summer.

[Landdownunder]

not so long ago australia used to produce 25 to 28 million tonne in 2025 one state west australia produced 25mill tonne alone

[crusher]

I disagree, but each to their own. Demand is really weak locally now, but that can improve with time. I'm thankful that Canada has decent wheat exports, there may be opportunities later. If the US announces changes to their biofuel program and we lose some demand for canola, look out below. Cheers

[helmsdale]

Significant portions of the special areas, which naturally produce a rounding error of a crop with respect to western canada totals produced a crop that was between 3 and 5 times normal. Alot of high production areas produced an average to perhaps even below average crop, but ALOT of lower to medium production areas produced a once in a lifetime crop.

[goalieguy847]

Well in our area ( northeast of edmonton) every single fellow i talk to had fantastic canola. We blew our previous record out of the water by about 11 bushels.
wheat.. not so much.

i believe the number on canola ..i honestly just would like to see the numbers they actually use because i blatantly lie on my stats can report. 100% false. Crop insurance is accurate but its not like 100% of growers have insurance. So how about those acres that arent reported?

Are usinf ndvi mapping?
i know that our yield data gets bought by the grain companies from deere and climatefieldview....but do they report to statscan the numbers that they receive?

How about the yields that the elevators always ask us for...
" well how many acres of wheat did u seed...etc..etc"


i always tell them politely...
"I seeded 1 acre of wheat. 1 of canola...1 barley....1 of peas..."


Where does stats can actually draw their numbers from... especially when the majority ( i would think) of information is still in the bin?

Seems like a pretty wildly inaccurate guess...( but could be high or low, i suppose)


Anyone with better info on where they come up with these numbers?

[poorboy]

It seems that there were no issues anywhere in the worlds grain growing regions last year and every time that happens it sewers grain prices until the next hiccup occurs in a grain producing area.

I have been looking around wondering where that may be. Looks to me that it might be right here in North America. Drought maps from Canada and the US show large areas that are dry.

So potentially a double edged sword. Prices might go up, but we might not have any thing to sell.

It does seem lately that grain prices drop off from late Nov to mid Feb and I am thinking it has to do with Australia harvest pressure. Hopefully a price pull back in Feb.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

If you want a scary thought, what happens if all areas fire on all cylinders one of these years.

The potential is mind blowing.

I think many of us forget that many areas of the world have big problems every year by default. Which results in average yields.

[shtferbrains]

US had a huge record Corn crop.
Yields only dreamed about.
S/B prosperity with bins full?
Yet equipment sales on big Combines and Tractors are down by 1/3.
Big economic problems resulting from a dream crop?

[Grain Farmer]

Good crops are worthless.
excellent crops would be a disaster.

[SmallTimeOperator]

We are being played. It is just like a couple years ago when everywhere on the planet was warming twice as fast as everywhere else. Here is what I think is driving this fake data generation: Farmers are being punished for voting conservative especially US farmers that vote for that Trump guy. 2026 is an election year so overestimate the crop to inflict pain on farmers and then bombard them with propaganda telling them how president Trump has cost them their farm. There are lots of fake videos saying such on u boob right now. Granted there were places with good crops in 2025 but also plenty of areas with substandard crops as well. For example NE Alberta, the peace country, Southwestern SK, my farm, etc. SKfarmer always has a good crop in his hood. Must be nice. Last spring we heard about record Brazil second crop corn. Where is that now? Everybody knows that even if there was record corn in Brazil, some was going to rot before it got to port as they can't handle all that volume in time. Now we have US corn exports well above recent years as buyers who know the crop is not as big as stated wisely bought at fire sale prices. US corn exports to canuckistan are forecast to drop as they don't have enough corn. China is buying commodities through 3rd parties. All of this is evidence that this crop is not a record. By next summer a scramble for supplies will be on especially if new crop is late this year as opposed to early in 2025. That is how the crushers did not run out of canola this past summer.

I am in agreement. All buyers and crushers are picking the low hanging fruit until March when the the last of the Input bills need to be paid. Only then, in April- May-June is the real value of our production truly discovered. If you can hold out till then to sell, most years you are reward handsomely. If you can’t, like me, you just slide along hoping it’s better next year.