Friday Coctail a day late and a dollar short.

[SASKFARMER]

I’m seeing something I don’t like in Agriculture and it’s why history should be taught.

The run-up in land, equipment, and input costs happened before, and then it crashed. Well, some equipment companies left IH, Minneapolis, Case, Massey, white CCIL, etc., and their inputs were consolidated to create today’s monopolies. Land went insane and 5 years later was 1/3 the value. Banks said you may think you’re worth so much but they used a way lower value. Notes called. Cracks are forming every day some big dogs are teetering. High rent helped the investors but they are nothing without it.

Some say it’s not the same but a $750,000.00 quarter at 5.5% is the same as a $175,000.00 quarter at 21% when you are getting the same price today for your product as in 1981.

Then the USA gets back into subsidies to help their farmers keep our inputs and machinery costs skyrocketing with basically no support. Again that’s the 1980s being told we can’t help you you're on your own.

Funny also a lot of medium guys are selling out and leaving, why it’s simple they aren’t making anything for all the work.

Canada is trying to be or join the EU but along with that will come rules and most farmers don't like the rules. We also don't get any help like the EU.

I might be painting a bleek picture but something is happening and I swear I lived it before.

The liberals will have a majority very soon as for crossing is a new normal.

Look at the new equalization for 2026 it stops at the Sask border. All east of that get and all west get the bill.

So as 2025 comes to a end maybe the conspiracy theorists weren't wrong as most is coming to reality. You will ownnothing and be forced to be happy.

We need a drink forsure.

One timeless favorite for a cold winter day is the Hot Buttered Rum — rich, creamy, and decadently warming with notes of spice and butter that feel like a hug in a mug.


Quick recipe (single serving):

• Mix 1-2 tsp spiced butter batter (softened butter + brown sugar + cinnamon/nutmeg/allspice) in a mug.

• Add 2 oz dark rum.

• Top with hot water, stir, and garnish with a cinnamon stick.

Enjoy this on a cold day in Western In In Canada.
Oh Stats Canada destroyed the rest of the grain markets, now elevators keep prices ridiculously low then offer a not bad price for an hour then gone game is gone.

May as well sit back and watch the train wreck happening in slow motion. If you have anything to add please do so.

[SASKFARMER]

An overview.

The 1980s farm crisis was a severe economic downturn that devastated Canada’s agricultural sector, particularly in the Prairies. Triggered by a combination of factors, it led to widespread farm foreclosures, bankruptcies, and rural depopulation. Key drivers included:

• High interest rates and debt burdens: Rates spiked to over 20% in the early 1980s due to anti-inflation policies, making it impossible for farmers to service loans taken during the 1970s grain export boom.

• Commodity price collapse: Wheat prices fell from highs of $18/bushel to $5/bushel, exacerbated by the U.S. grain embargo on the Soviet Union (1980), global overproduction, and the U.S.-EU “grain trade war” that flooded markets.

• Policy changes: The 1983 elimination of the Crow’s Nest Pass freight subsidy dramatically raised transportation costs for Prairie grain farmers, adding to financial strain.

• Impacts: Over half of Prairie farmers were deeply indebted; thousands exited farming, with farm numbers dropping 8% in five years. Governments responded with emergency aid like the $1 billion Special Canadian Grains Program (1986-87) and debt mediation boards.

This crisis echoed the Great Depression’s scale, causing personal tragedies like suicides and community collapses.

The Current Agricultural “Crisis” in Canada (as of December 2025)

Canada’s agriculture sector in 2025 faces significant pressures, but they form a “slow-moving” or structural challenge rather than an acute collapse. Discussions often center on an innovation and competitiveness crisis, alongside weather, costs, and labor issues. Major elements include:

• Declining innovation and R&D: Public investment in agricultural research lags 33% behind the OECD average ($26 billion annual shortfall), with aging facilities and poor coordination hindering competitiveness. Experts warn the sector is “dangerously close” to crisis without reforms.

• Drought and weather variability: Severe dry conditions in Saskatchewan and the Prairies (e.g., 64% of crops in “good to excellent” condition but soil moisture depleted) prompted doubled crop insurance thresholds and extended AgriStability deadlines. The Canadian Drought Monitor shows ongoing risks into 2026.

• Input costs and food inflation: Fertilizer, feed, and energy prices remain elevated post-COVID, contributing to 3-5% food price rises (average family of four: $16,834/year). A weakening CAD reduces import buying power, while supply chain disruptions (e.g., rail strikes) strain exports.

• Labor shortages: Reliance on temporary foreign workers (TFWP) is unsustainable, with 200,000+ international students facing permit expirations. The sector needs pathways to permanent residency amid housing crises in rural areas.

• Generational and land pressures: An aging farmer population drives asset transfers, but high land costs and low margins expel families—one-third have left in a generation. Ontario loses 320 acres of farmland daily to urbanization.

• Crop outlooks: Wheat area seeded down 3%, barley prices at $285/tonne (down $10), but global supplies are abundant, pressuring prices. Overall production is stable, with no widespread foreclosures reported.

Government responses include extended support programs and calls for better R&D coordination, but critics argue they’re insufficient for climate resilience or poverty reduction.

Recent X discussions echo these themes: posts highlight vanishing family farms, mental health support needs (e.g., 24/7 crisis lines), and innovation urgency, with some linking to U.S. parallels like corporate consolidation.

[SASKFARMER]

Similarities: Both feature squeezed margins (1980s: $1 net per $12 revenue; today: high costs/low profits), export vulnerabilities, and calls for better support. Today’s stresses (e.g., oversupply, rising rates) echo 1980s warnings, and corporate consolidation (e.g., fewer machinery/fertilizer firms) amplifies power imbalances that began then.

Differences: The 1980s was a “perfect storm” of rapid shocks with minimal safety nets, causing immediate devastation. Today, lower rates, diversified exports (60% to U.S.), and programs like crop insurance provide buffers. Climate and innovation add modern layers absent in the 1980s, making it a sustainability issue rather than pure financial meltdown. No evidence of 1980s-scale violence or exits in 2025 data.

Conclusion: Not the Same, But Echoes Warrant Caution

No, the current agricultural challenges in Canada are not the same as the 1980s farm crisis. The 1980s was a sharp, economy-wide implosion driven by monetary policy and trade shocks, leading to existential threats for farmers. In contrast, 2025’s issues are slower-burning—rooted in innovation stagnation, climate variability, and structural inequities—without the same level of immediate peril or foreclosures. However, without urgent R&D boosts, labor reforms, and climate adaptation, these pressures could evolve into a deeper crisis, especially amid global slowdowns (e.g., Canada’s 1.5% GDP growth aligning with peers). Lessons from the 1980s emphasize preparation: diversified risk management and coordinated policy could prevent history from repeating. For farmers facing stress, resources like the Saskatchewan Farm Stress Line (1-800-667-4442) remain vital.

[Old Cowzilla]

Well Sask it is different this time I am 65 years old and I won't be able to work the night shift at the local factories to support my day time farming habits like I did in the 80's. But I do like the idea of relaxing in a nice warm house at night sipping a rum drink .

[bucket]

Don't forget the incompetence in the last few years.

The flax market was handed to Khakistan. Europe hasn't come back.

There is no export sales reports in Canada because those responsible for advancing it to the government refuse to understand the need.

We have idiots that think signing trade deals all over can fix the loss of the USA market. What most don't understand is - the countries signing with Canada will be infilling our share to the USA. Never to return to Canada.

R&D is great but we are not moving what we have now.

Billions spent on irrigation that only helps a few. As far as more home grown crops - it's a fallacy - example how does a company in Saskatchewan grow carrots against a country that can get them into Canada packaged for less money. Lower inputs and better weather to grow them. But paying Monette to rot carrots makes sense????

And then there is the 50 billion handed out to American farmers in the last few years. If Canadian farmers think their farm should compete against the US treasury - they have rocks in between their ears.

Dairy farmers are getting an increase in their milk prices. That is one commodity that never goes down.

Then there is the support for every other industry. Algoma over the last 2 decades has been bailed out to the tune of billions.

The auto industry takes advantage of idiot ministers who are illiterate.

As so on and so forth.

When agriculture is forgotten in a country , it eventually fails.

Russia was once one of Canada's customers, now it is a competitor . Same with Ukraine and they are fighting each other and still grabbing market share.

And the final point - Canadian farmers do not have an effective lobby.

[Landdownunder]

People suggesting here there has to be a reset of some sort cant see how wishful thinking I agree with you.
A mate has a 3yr old combine low hours looking at trading up green still 800k change over ridiculous

[Taiga]

Costs have just gotten too high, machinery replacement costs especially noticeable. I am seeing prices for land and equipment falling. Plus Canada is a country in serious decline, why would I want to invest anything else here. Looking into the EB-2 NIW visa. But I am getting old. Worry about my kids, it’s going to be tough the next 20 years I think.

[Grain Farmer]

So what needs to happen to change our prices around?
last time it was a war, sucks to think we need that again.
Over production world wide, tarrifs to our best customers has turned the ag sector into a thing of the past?
lots of larger farms pulling the pin..( 20k acres plus).
is this like grain prices, get out before it totally crashes?

[bucket]

So what needs to happen to change our prices around?
last time it was a war, sucks to think we need that again.
Over production world wide, tarrifs to our best customers has turned the ag sector into a thing of the past?
lots of larger farms pulling the pin..( 20k acres plus).
is this like grain prices, get out before it totally crashes?

We have a war . The Russia Ukraine battle is still taking market share and we as Canadians have a government funding both the war and the rebuild of infrastructure.

We don't build our ports so Nutrien goes to the USA.

We are being governed by retards.

[tubs]

I agree sask farmer we are getting sqeeuzed and our goverments are not helping.What they should do is drill some tunnels through the mountains here so we can have more shipping and cheaper because of shorter routes, but have governments that sooner blow money up in Ukraine