Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

[AgrivilleAdmin]

Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?

Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.

The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.

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[MoeAgostino]

Late breaking news on comments from USTR Greer confirms that the U.S. and China have not reached an agreement on U.S. soybean purchases but China is buying? This uncertainty should continue to drive funds crazy. Will USDA surprise next Tuesday?

[Grain Farmer]

Let's hope for limit up.

[SASKFARMER]

The corn crop i seen had a few areas with massive piles and man the illinois and iowa corn didnt look very great up down from lack of water at key time. Lots of bags on the ground in places but guys down south arent selling.

Were beeing played on all these reports to help industry not farmers.

[Grain Farmer]

Bags are easy to see.
none being moved.
Waiting game. All will be empty before next harvest and hit the market.

[SASKFARMER]

Yes but the massive piles at elevators were not their and only a few areas had bags of corn. not all way to Chicago then down to Memphis.

[shtferbrains]

Maybe never got to the pile?
Corn use and exports are huge,

[ColevilleH2S]

As you read today's USDA report keep in the back of your mind it is written by the same organization who will publicly state they are unaware of how trade tarriffs work.

When they are telling you they can be manipulated, believe them.

[SASKFARMER]

December 2025 WASDE Report: Key Grain Highlights

The USDA released its December 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report today, December 9, 2025. As expected for the year-end update, there were no changes to U.S. production estimates across major grains (harvest data is now finalized). Adjustments focused on demand-side factors like exports and domestic use, leading to modest shifts in ending stocks. Global outlooks incorporated early Southern Hemisphere crop data and revised foreign supply/demand. Below is a summary of key changes for major grains (corn, soybeans, wheat) and coarse grains overall, with U.S. and global figures for the 2025/26 marketing year (unless noted otherwise). All changes are relative to the November 2025 report.

Corn

• U.S. Outlook: Exports were raised 100 million bushels, reflecting strong recent sales and inspections (up 71% year-over-year as of late November). This, combined with steady feed and ethanol use, lowered ending stocks by 125 million bushels to 2.029 billion bushels (below trade expectations of 2.124 billion). Total supply remains at 15.109 billion bushels; total use at 13.080 billion.

• Global Outlook: Production unchanged at 1.220 billion metric tons (MMT). Ending stocks reduced slightly to 279.15 MMT (down 2.19 MMT), driven by higher foreign demand.

Soybeans (Oilseeds)

• U.S. Outlook: Crush increased marginally, but exports held steady amid mixed China demand signals. Ending stocks unchanged at 290 million bushels (below trade expectations of 302 million). Total supply at 4.745 billion bushels; total use at 4.455 billion.

• Global Outlook: Production up 0.5 MMT on higher Brazil and Argentina estimates; crush raised 0.7 MMT. Exports down 0.4 MMT. Ending stocks increased to 122.37 MMT (up 0.38 MMT).

Wheat

• U.S. Outlook: No changes to supply or use components; exports steady at 900 million bushels despite recent inspections up 20% year-over-year. Ending stocks unchanged at 901 million bushels (above trade expectations of 890 million; highest in six years). Total supply at 2.885 billion bushels; total use at 1.984 billion.

• Global Outlook: Production up 3.5 MMT (higher Canada at 40 MMT and Argentina estimates). Consumption up 1.5 MMT; exports up 1.8 MMT. Ending stocks raised to 274.87 MMT (up 3.44 MMT).

Coarse Grains (Aggregate: Corn, Barley, Sorghum, Oats, Rye)

• U.S. Outlook: Largely unchanged beyond corn adjustments; total ending stocks down ~125 million bushels to ~2.3 billion (driven by corn).

• Global Outlook: Production down slightly to 1.576 billion MMT (lower in Ukraine and EU). Consumption and exports steady. Ending stocks up 3.4 MMT to 274.9 MMT, supported by higher stocks in major exporters like the U.S. and Brazil.

Rice

• U.S. Outlook: No changes; long-grain production at 152.7 million hundredweight (cwt); ending stocks at 36 million cwt.

• Global Outlook: Production, consumption, and trade slightly lower; ending stocks higher (specific figures not detailed in summaries, but up marginally on steady supplies).

Overall, the report was mildly bullish for corn (lower U.S./global stocks) and neutral-to-bearish for soybeans and wheat (unchanged or higher stocks). Season-average price forecasts: corn $4.25/bushel (unchanged), soybeans $10.25 (up $0.05), wheat $5.70 (unchanged). Markets reacted modestly, with corn futures up ~1-2¢ and soybeans/wheat mixed post-release.
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