Deleveraging in Bitcoin (Crypto) Will NOT Save Christmas!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Bringing up corruption in Ukraine will result in nasty deflections from forage.

[errolanderson]

Bitcoin appears now following the Japanese Yen for direction.

Japan has been a major supplier of global financial liquidity due largely to the weak Yen. But this engine is seizing-up. Japan’s bond yields are soaring to highest level in nearly 30 years. Debt alarm bells are going off.

Japan’s banking system may be insolvent. And Japan is a major holder of U.S. debt.

Japan and China are offloading U.S. debt at a staggering rate. The Fed has to buy it back.

Now the U.S. is in a liquidity debt crisis. The Fed is injecting massive amounts of liquidity system almost every nite (Repo market). Something BIG is brewing and bubbling to the surface in the U.S. banking system. The subprime lending market is under huge stress. Auto loans are upside down as vehicle prices are now in-a-dive.

How does this tie into cryptos? If liquidity dries up, so does Bitcoin. And the root begins in Japan, but the fault is U.S. not controlling debt and spending. It’s come home to roost.

The U.S. economy is now in a deflationary debt spiral. Unemployment is rocketing higher.

Fed cutting rates will do little (IMO). Real rates are still going up because lenders are facing accelerating defaults. Housing and mortgages, look out.

IMO, cryptos are in trouble despite all the promoter grandstanding on social media. CNBC stated they have no clue why cryptos have sold-off. Bottomline, U.S. media doesn’t want to look outside their border for reasons.

The U.S. wants to be the crypto king of the world, but the engine that supports liquidity is seizing up offshore. Cryptos are impacted.

This clock is ticking and no one appears watching. My opinion . . .

errolanderson.substack.com
Errol’s Commodity Wire, Calgary

[wheatking16]

My analysis has Bitcoin going to 30-35k.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I don't follow Bitcoin. If those prices come to fruition, how would that compare to previous corrections in magnitude?

[foragefarmer]

My analysis has Bitcoin going to 30-35k.

Bold prediction, if possible, I'm sure he's/she's shorted Bitcoin.

Errol’s Commodity Wire, Calgary work for you?
?

[agstar77]

Bitcoin appears now following the Japanese Yen for direction.

Japan has been a major supplier of global financial liquidity due largely to the weak Yen. But this engine is seizing-up. Japan’s bond yields are soaring to highest level in nearly 30 years. Debt alarm bells are going off.

Japan’s banking system may be insolvent. And Japan is a major holder of U.S. debt.

Japan and China are offloading U.S. debt at a staggering rate. The Fed has to buy it back.

Now the U.S. is in a liquidity debt crisis. The Fed is injecting massive amounts of liquidity system almost every nite (Repo market). Something BIG is brewing and bubbling to the surface in the U.S. banking system. The subprime lending market is under huge stress. Auto loans are upside down as vehicle prices are now in-a-dive.

How does this tie into cryptos? If liquidity dries up, so does Bitcoin. And the root begins in Japan, but the fault is U.S. not controlling debt and spending. It’s come home to roost.

The U.S. economy is now in a deflationary debt spiral. Unemployment is rocketing higher.

Fed cutting rates will do little (IMO). Real rates are still going up because lenders are facing accelerating defaults. Housing and mortgages, look out.

IMO, cryptos are in trouble despite all the promoter grandstanding on social media. CNBC stated they have no clue why cryptos have sold-off. Bottomline, U.S. media doesn’t want to look outside their border for reasons.

The U.S. wants to be the crypto king of the world, but the engine that supports liquidity is seizing up offshore. Cryptos are impacted.

This clock is ticking and no one appears watching. My opinion . . .

errolanderson.substack.com
Errol’s Commodity Wire, Calgary

It's clear the U.S. elected a a specialist in bankruptcies. That is the endgame. Why else would you start a trade war and fleece the treasury for the billionaires? Trump even floated the idea of declaring bankruptcy for the country and canceling foreign debt.

[Grain Farmer]

It's clear the U.S. elected a a specialist in bankruptcies. That is the endgame. Why else would you start a trade war and fleece the treasury for the billionaires? Trump even floated the idea of declaring bankruptcy for the country and canceling foreign debt.

That must be carney 's plan for canada.

[wheatking16]

Bold prediction, if possible, I'm sure he's/she's shorted Bitcoin.

Errol’s Commodity Wire, Calgary work for you?
?

I published this idea months ago.

No, Errol does not work for me.

My gender is not in question.

[url]www.klarenbach.ca[/url]

[wheatking16]

Time will tell if the idea plays out.

For reference from Grok:
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Over the past four months (August to December 2025), Trent Klarenbach (@TrentKlarenbach), a grain marketing analyst, shared several technical analyses of Bitcoin (BTC) on X, focusing on long-term patterns and comparisons to gold.

His views leaned bearish overall, emphasizing potential downside risks based on historical chart patterns.

No relevant posts were found from August, with activity starting in late September. Below is a chronological summary of his key insights:

• September 22, 2025: Questioned whether BTC is in a "Hyperwave" pattern, a multi-phase cycle theory. He noted a potential break of the Phase 6 line on the weekly chart, which could lead to sub-$40,000 levels or even $30,000, with the price then around $60,000–$70,000. The chart showed ascending phase lines from 2018 onward, with a projected red downtrend line targeting the lower phases.
• September 24, 2025: In a reply about market sentiment, he mentioned a friend inquiring about crypto, interpreting it as a sign of late-stage euphoria in risk assets.
• October 11, 2025: Updated his Hyperwave analysis, stating it "appears to be playing out." The updated chart (zoomed to 2022–2027) showed price action declining toward lower phase lines, reinforcing the bearish outlook to around $30,000.
  In a separate reply, he suggested BTC often leads the stock market, implying correlated moves if the downtrend continues.
• October 18, 2025: Highlighted BTC's weekly chart against its 350-period simple moving average (SMA), with price at approximately $106,942 (high) and the SMA at $40,509. He posed "What happens next?" implying a potential test or breakdown of this long-term support level.
• October 21, 2025: Analyzed the BTC/Gold ratio, identifying a head-and-shoulders (H&S) topping pattern on the weekly chart. He labeled areas above the neckline as "Own Bitcoin" and below as "Own Gold," with a measured move target around 6.8 (from a current ratio of ~29). This suggested significant BTC underperformance relative to gold, warning of "something BIG this way comes."
• In a related discussion on safe assets, he argued nothing (including BTC, gold, or land) is truly "safe," as all can drop 20%+ depending on timeframes and individual preferences.
• November 7, 2025: Revisited the BTC/Gold ratio H&S pattern in an updated chart, noting it "challenges some narratives and ideologies." The ratio had declined to ~25.2, with the measured target still at ~6.8, reinforcing a shift toward favoring gold ownership.
• November 14, 2025: Anticipated a short-term rally in BTC from the $94,300 level, marking a more neutral-to-bullish near-term view amid the broader bearish thesis.
• November 18, 2025: Speculated on extreme future scenarios, questioning "Gold 5K BTC 30K ??"—implying a possible world where gold reaches $5,000 per ounce while BTC drops to $30,000, aligning with his ratio analysis.

In summary, Trent's analyses centered on technical patterns like Hyperwave and H&S formations, consistently highlighting downside risks for BTC to $30,000–$40,000 while suggesting gold could outperform.

He incorporated sentiment indicators and broader market leadership ideas but emphasized volatility and the lack of "safe" assets.

His posts were infrequent, with no further activity noted through early December.?

[foragefarmer]

I published this idea months ago.

No, Errol does not work for me.

My gender is not in question.

[url]www.klarenbach.ca[/url]

Eyes read analyst when you clearly state "my analysis".

Good ANALYSIS regarding Bitcoin.

Only mention Errol because he posted just above you.