I hope this isn't so small it can't be seen.
I just wanted to share the real story after being disturbed by a fear mongering suggestion that the canola market is in trouble because exports after the first five weeks of the crop year are less than half of last year. And that the old crop carryover may be understated.
Canola exports Are less than half of last year as you can see (at 529,500 mt vs 1.137 mmt LY if you can't) but that is because of a lack of supply -- Not a lack of demand.
Between the tight old crop carryover and the late start to harvest, producers have only been able to deliver 882,800 mt compared to 1.615 mmt at the same time last year.
That has left commercials stocks at a mere 516,200 mt at the end of week 5 compared to levels more normally over double that level. With 258,100 mt of that just delivered in week 5, it's hard to have anything in place to export. And hard to match last year's exports without the seed, and in position.
Domestic use has been the one looked after by the deliveries, and likely for the best in the long run -- already consuming 1.151 mmt compared to 1.039 mmt last year by this time.
If exports continue to be sluggish while commercial stocks build, then there may be something to try to scare markets and farmers over.
I just wanted to share the real story after being disturbed by a fear mongering suggestion that the canola market is in trouble because exports after the first five weeks of the crop year are less than half of last year. And that the old crop carryover may be understated.
Canola exports Are less than half of last year as you can see (at 529,500 mt vs 1.137 mmt LY if you can't) but that is because of a lack of supply -- Not a lack of demand.
Between the tight old crop carryover and the late start to harvest, producers have only been able to deliver 882,800 mt compared to 1.615 mmt at the same time last year.
That has left commercials stocks at a mere 516,200 mt at the end of week 5 compared to levels more normally over double that level. With 258,100 mt of that just delivered in week 5, it's hard to have anything in place to export. And hard to match last year's exports without the seed, and in position.
Domestic use has been the one looked after by the deliveries, and likely for the best in the long run -- already consuming 1.151 mmt compared to 1.039 mmt last year by this time.
If exports continue to be sluggish while commercial stocks build, then there may be something to try to scare markets and farmers over.
Comment