Rain lottery

[sumdumguy]

Is two inches a blessing on Aug 5?

[zeefarmer]

6-10" in the last week on our land. July rains saved our crop, now August rains are doing more harm than good. At least we're building subsoil for 2026

[Dr Tone]

Is two inches a blessing on Aug 5?

2” could start closing the cracks. Might save a wrench or 2 during harvest.

[furrowtickler]

Will be interesting to hear from Dave on the lentil quality from those wet areas
my experience is once mold sets in yield and quality take a huge hit unfortunately

[furrowtickler]

I would think quality spreads are about to get very wide

[dave4441]

Will be interesting to hear from Dave on the lentil quality from those wet areas
my experience is once mold sets in yield and quality take a huge hit unfortunately

Have to break this down to red and green lentils.

Reds - no issues at all at this point. Lots still green enough and haven't dried down. If there was some X3 red lentils they likely are just blended into the #2s and no real change. The issue is demand in this market. It is very limited. Good crops in Australia last Dec, Canada still has old crop, India's own red crop was good and exporters to India are stuck with stocks sitting in warehouses in India. And very little forward sales from Canada for the 2025 crop anyway. So no pressure on Canadian traders, which is required to really jump the market in Canada due to grade issues. I see red lentils as flat. Could go down a couple cents or up a couple cents but grade not a factor.

Green lentils are mainly soft and green (yes except some in South) still and shouldn't be that impacted. I went to my own farm and I, like everyone else, switched into Large Green and French Green lentils. The french green are close to desiccation but still haven't dried down and i don't feel the last inch of rain really hurt them. Sure pockets that got 5" will be impacted, but green lentil acres are so high that it would help the market if we got a range of grades. If we can get down to 20 cent CGC 3 large green then possibly India will buy to replace pigeon peas. If we have a CGC 2 or better crop (Like the last 5 years) then we will have a bloodbath as the market is much smaller then what we produce. I agree with grade spreads widening. On Monday i dropped our new crop small green price to 27 for a CGC 2 and left CGC 1 at 31 cents delivered (normally it is a 2 cent spread). Most of our traditional buyers want a CGC 2 Large green or CGC 1 small green. Lower grades would go into pet food in USA but the USA crop is up significantly as well and transportation costs are 5 cents less. And pet food has been slow for at least 12 months.

I believe the highs of the green lentil market were this past winter. In 2016 we had 25" of rain and 50% of the lentil crop was CGC 2 or better. This year most had a dry start and we got 7-10" of rain across most of the lentil region. Its not that much outside of normal.

[furrowtickler]

Thanks for your insight Dave

[farmaholic]

I've seen both peas and lentils in this area that appear to be getting sick. Peas that are brown on the bottom of the plant and green on top. Same in some lentils, patches in the fields that look like they're getting sick. At least those symptoms never appeared in late June.

[dave4441]

I've seen both peas and lentils in this area that appear to be getting sick. Peas that are brown on the bottom of the plant and green on top. Same in some lentils, patches in the fields that look like they're getting sick. At least those symptoms never appeared in late June.

I drove about 2500 kms in the last couple weeks across southern Sask and west Central Sask. I believe we have a average crop. 1200 lbs on large green and 1400 lbs/acre on reds, small greens. I dont think its massive crop per acre but there will be some 10 bushel crops and some 40 bushel crops. I seen fields early June that growers didnt think they would harvest and they are 25 bushel crops now. Lots of time until harvest is over but i think its hard to be bullish today. Average crop is too much crop for small and large green lentils. My general feeling is that specifically aphanomyces was not a issue this year. Dry spring allowed seedlings to be strong and it just didnt move in. There are crops going brown now but its been over 90 days since seeding so that should be expected.

[bucket]

Lots of people starving in Gaza. If Carney wanted to kill two birds with one stone - he could help farmers here with prices and get the lentils to Gaza without so much as a peep from anyone.

The USA uses food programs as part of the farm bill I think.

Not sure why it has to be advertised, just do it.

And that would go for anywhere that people are starving , Never seen a starving person fill their belly with a cheque.

And Carney wouldn't have to make stupid statements about a two state solution.