USDA Crop Reports/Trade Deals a Bust + Monster U.S. Corn Crop = Lower Prices

[AgrivilleAdmin]

Ag Commodity Corner+ podcast

StoneX projects a monster U.S. 2025 corn yield at 186.9 bpa, while the USDA provided no big surprises in the July crop report.

A lack of U.S. trade deals/ag purchase agreements after 3-months but rather an escalation/threat in tariffs with 30% to Japan, 25% on South Korea, 35% for Canada and 50% for Brazil/copper is weighing on fund ag sentiment.

Regardless, funds after 3 years continue to chase and pile into Bitcoin ETF’s and the AI trade with NVDA both at new all time record highs and NVDA hitting the $4 trillion market cap first.

U.S. weather remains non-threatening for July and dry areas of Northern Illinois are getting rain.
Western Canada is expected to get periodic rains every 3-4 days with no excessive heat, but farmers are saying that the rain chances very seldom materialize.

U.S. border to Mexican feeder cattle closes again to screwworm and should remain closed but this combined with new U.S. tariffs for Brazil means less supplies and a continuation of the bull market in cattle.
?

[MoeAgostino]

What do you think the U.S. corn yield will be? Is everyone underestimating genetics when U.S. weather has been as Ideal as 2025? What about in Western Canada many think its better than expected or is the 2nd worst drought since 2021?

[ajl]

Trade deals were never going to happen anyways because the non US party will be always be incapable of keeping their end of the bargain. The US will always be supplier of last resort and the tariff will not change that. So president Trump is right to focus on the domestic market and tell the rest of the world to f off.