AAFC April Outlook for Canola

[farming101]

Unchanged?
Canada now needs to export about negative 1400 tonnes per week through to the end of the crop year

[TechAnalyst]

It’s too bad they don’t take the responsibility that should come with their role seriously. This error (too low of an export estimate) was months in the making, and very predictable. A proper analysis would have given the market a chance to ration demand with higher prices. The lack of effort will have costly consequences.

[Hamloc]

It’s too bad they don’t take the responsibility that should come with their role seriously. This error (too low of an export estimate) was months in the making, and very predictable. A proper analysis would have given the market a chance to ration demand with higher prices. The lack of effort will have costly consequences.

Your prediction is then that lack of adequate supply will cause prices for canola to continue to rise?

[TechAnalyst]

My opinion, for what it's worth, is that the price should continue to rise longer term.

After a $142.10/mt rally (May canola) since March 17 or $3.22/bu, a profit taking correction should be a surprise to no one. That said, commercially driven rallies based on supply concerns are known for very shallow corrections as those that need the commodity tend to be relatively impatient. By the CGC stats and strong basis levels accompanying the futures rally, that certainly appears to be the case here.

With total disappearance (exports and domestic use) as of week 37 running 3.714 mmt ahead of last year (15.974 vs 12.260 mmt last year) while our friends at AAFC are STILL predicting only a .865 mmt increase year-over-year to leave a mere 1.3 mmt ending stocks -- demand (use) will have to come to a halt very soon.

The problem is, what price does it take now to choke off demand? With the small crop in Europe leaving them a significant customer until their new crop is harvested. China can still buy the seed without the 100% tariffs on products, and has been. And USMCA compliant goods can flow tariff free throughout North America. So what price finally chokes off demand?

Now that resistance at $680/mt (July futures) has been cleared, prices may drift back to it on profit taking but there is very little for significant resistance on the weekly continuation chart until the July 2023 high of $825.80/mt.

In this geopolitically unstable environment, it is still wise to reward rallies with small incremental sales along the way even if you do want to hold for those type of prices.

My 2 cents worth (must be getting close to 0 value with inflation?)

Mitch

[blackpowder]

$16.00 offered at local crush for June yesterday.
Reminds one slightly of the Great Grain Robbery.
This one no one seems to talk about.
Certainly no one talks about lack of market information.
What did $2/b cost everyone?

[TechAnalyst]

And that’s the issue I have with AAFC’s apparent lack of concern about accuracy…

[blackpowder]

Never talked about. That's an issue.

[shtferbrains]

China is an expert at market manipulation.
They seem to get better with practice.
They set up a special government agency to work at it.

We see it in commodities but they do it with about everything.

[Rareearth]

The easiest and fastest way for foreign countries to even up trade deficits with the usa is to buy usa commodities, corn and soybeans. trump will force this

This will lift our markets.
This happened last time he was in the office, problem was other countries waited for trump to lose the next election, then they went back to buying the lowest cost source.

[Old Cowzilla]

We are 1/10 of the pop of USA we will always have trade deficits with them. Don will need even more resources from us if any of his factory dreams come true even thou he says he doesn't need anything from us. Lots of blue,green yellow,and red eqipment around the country its not as if we have not been spending money down there. Shit half the country around here spends there pension check there every winter!