what canola tariffs?

[TechAnalyst]

If those questions are directed at me Larry, I have no idea what that means or who that is.

[furrowtickler]

End of the day farmers taking a beating , yet again

[TechAnalyst]

The problem is you can ask 10 analysts and advisors and get 15 answers.

My personal opinion (that might only be worth as much as you paid for it) is stick to your rotation and plans. Remember, just mere weeks ago new crop prices were flirting with $15/bu depending on basis.

I feel the canola market is failing miserably in its primary function to discourage or encourage demand and supply through price signals.

Fear and anxiety over what if's have controlled it for too long now, keeping the price too low to send proper signals to impact what is actually happening.

Accumulated exports of 6.324 mmt compared to 3.445 last year are a perfect example. The last 21 weeks of the marketing year only need to average 56,000 mt to hit the common export target of 7.5 mmt. Yet the week 31 report Thursday had 197,200 mt shipped! Up sharply from last week's winter low mark of 105,600 mt.

With the EU production falling 2.694 mmt last year from 2023-24, they have actively been buying Canadian canola. Even with the recent decline in European r a p e seed prices (due to a strong Euro), EU ****seed futures are now $167/mt CAD above canola futures compared to a normal range of even money up to a $100/mt premium for EU ****seed. That isn't going to discourage Any demand, especially when total world production was 3.696 mmt lower on the year (including the EU drop), leaving few alternatives to Canada.

The previous posts already highlighted the fact that China can still buy Canadian canola seed tariff free, aggressively ramped up again in January and is surely using the break in price that they were responsible for -- to be buying much more.

So when is the canola market planning on doing its job and discouraging demand?

Domestic crush is the excuse but there are no signs of any slowing. Week 21 had 212,300 mt crushed, right on the pace needed to meet the annual projection of 11.5 mmt. To date, accumulated domestic use has hit 7.02 mmt vs 6.461 last year.

With canola oil shipments in January showing a diversification in target markets, including other Asian countries - it may not be wise to bet the crushers will just lie down and die. They have far too much invested for that.

Regarding the primary function of ensuring supply - look at the reason for this post.

The market and the politicians responsible for the price action (that don't have a clue about unintended consequences of their actions) are telling producers to cut back on acres just as they are preparing to hit the field.

Talk about a failure to properly do your job.

Again, just my 2 cents worth. (which isn't much given inflation).

Mitch Miller (for your sake Larry)

For those wanting a visual representation. The market is finally starting to show the concern it should. Add in a strong basis and now you're keeping acres in the rotation.

[LWeber]

Good one Larry, that proves to everyone you're not really a troll - just thin skinned.

So nobody has to do a thorough job if it's on a Sunday?

LOL.... I sent this to the President of DTN who has hosted my website since 2001.
I also let him know how long you subscribed to my market letter.
Lets see who has the most skin.

[TechAnalyst]

LOL.... I sent this to the President of DTN who has hosted my website since 2001.
I also let him know how long you subscribed to my market letter.
Lets see who has the most skin.

Good one Larry, that's a much better look on you...

I am very proud of my work including everything in this and all my past posts. What motivates me is trying to get honest, helpful and unbiased information out there when there is so much designed to help the originator.

Grain marketing is tough enough without it...

Thanks and have a great day.

[sumdumguy]

Moe, standing there bawling that over $1B have been lost in Canola? Sue the federal government. Get off your arses. Our farm groups are just a bunch of pigeons, May as well be Moe standing up for farmers - go Moe!

Farmers won’t get in their trucks and tractors and head to leg buildings to show the world what this government is costing us. useless F… ing EV tariffs on Chinese vehicles? What for? Feds protecting Ontario manufacturing but stomping on Canola growers, sounds about right.

[wheatking16]

Canola just made new crop year highs.

[TechAnalyst]

Considering Larry's attempt to threaten me (or whatever that was) brought it up -- I have been DTN's Canadian grains analyst since October.

For anyone interested, I put out 2 posts (blogs but I really dislike that term) a week for free public viewing, no strings attached. Just google dtn canada and follow the link to Canada Markets. Past posts remain to look back on for those so inclined.

This is the link to last week's (as long as it works) [url]https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/canada-markets/blog-post/2025/04/11/corn-export-commitments-running-25[/url]

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thanks for the link TechAnalyst. I will be following for now on.

In fact, it is possible that negotiations within the 90-day pause may see an increase in export demand. With the calculation used to determine the reciprocal tariff rate being entirely trade-deficit based, the best way for a country to satisfy the demands that it be addressed immediately would be to buy more American goods. And few options would satisfy that as quickly and efficiently as purchasing more agricultural commodities. Especially for a customer (or a prospect) like Japan and India that could use the additional supplies, for example. How the corn would be sourced is another question given the already tight U.S. balance sheet.

Well said, I don't think the Trump detractors see what is actually happening.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Canola just made new crop year highs.

But who could have predicted that during all the doom and gloom recently...

Oh wait, you did.