Grain Markets and other stuff pod cast

[furrowtickler]

Current Markets and review of U.S. checkoffs by DOGE
//youtu.be/PZqVR7xnPuA

[agstar77]

Further to canola.

[wrongway]

over capacity in crush and under capacity in production...

[WiltonRanch]

Canola production peaked a number of years ago and hasn’t seen those numbers since. Drought, poor prices, and quite frankly newer varieties getting pricey with more emphasis on disease resistance while forgetting about yield has crippled canola output. Speaking from nw Sask where now hrs comes out on par or even better than canola is bloody pathetic.

[furrowtickler]

Yes , 35 bus / ac Canola is below COP on 99% of farms

[farmaholic]

What went wrong?
I remember this campaign and the only thing I could think of is over producing ourselves(farmers) into the poor house. When we're competing with other types of veg-oil products, we don't get to set our prices. I think it was a 2014 campaign, 10 years later and we couldn't break 20MMT last year. What would the current price be if there was an additional 6.5 to 7 MMT available? That's ~35% higher supply...

They were touting 26MMT from 22 million acres.... 52 bushels/acre.... year in year out.... that's not realistic outside the traditional canola growing area where higher yeilds are attainable more consistently.

[Old Cowzilla]

Going to be hard to increase average yield with the continued breaking of cow pasture and slews that dirt had it's purpose already. Seems locals sold canola early hoping wheat would do something before spring now guys are pulling the pin on that too . our last -30 morning I hope today!

[furrowtickler]

What happened for the most part was the approximate 20 year drought cycle in western Canada
It would be interesting to see a canola yield / drought graph from 1995 to 2024 .
Hopefully the areas hit the hardest the past few years can get out of the cycle this year .
The last widespread drought was in 2000 to 2004 period , and in general 2001-2003 was the worst
The current drought conditions started about 2020 and hopefully are over this year .
Without question some areas were drier longer and a few areas and pockets were not as bad .

[TASFarms]

Yes , 35 bus / ac Canola is below COP on 99% of farms

that my yield target. Over that is a bonus. 2.5lbs/acre seeding rate helps but still expensive to grow. Maybe save $33. 17acres a bag instead of 10.

[ajl]

that my yield target. Over that is a bonus. 2.5lbs/acre seeding rate helps but still expensive to grow. Maybe save $33. 17acres a bag instead of 10.

Mine too on solonetzic ground. My 24 result was 29 bu/ac with losses due to both flooding and drought. Mudded the crop in and then when it needed water in mid July, none was to be had. Got 45 bu/ac in 23 so this land can yield if the weather is half way decent. My 29bu/ac result was in the statscan Dec report when they admitted the crop was not as big as forecast. (big surprise, not) I don't have enough acres to swing the result that much though. With cost control, 35 can be profitable.