Input and crop prices

[jdg364]

Wow have things went wrong in the last two weeks. Received text msg and cnl is back under $13/bu and good wheat is struggling to stay between $7.25-7.50.

Spoke with input supplier and 46-00 was $710, phos $1175, potash $605 and sulfur 610.. take home prices. Things are lining up to not be a very merry Xmas.

Im assuming guys are holding off on grain sales but are any of you booking fert or just hoping prices will solve themselves come spring.

[westernvicki]

Those price graphs in economics where prices fall faster than inputs, farmers all over the developed world are living in it. Canada has better credit programs but worse income and cost intervention support; farmers in Canada can, on their backs, float this bet slightly longer. However, the facts are: Average yield x average price does not buy a 2024 fertility program. And only reduced demand, reduces prices.?

Coming out of the bubble, hoping for a new one. It's a crap table now.
What strategies are out there? Or is it kiss the dice?

And then there is the WWIII.

[biglentil]

No fert purchases and few grain sales. When you factor in how much the cad has fallen grain prices are even uglier. Everything sky high except grain prices, go figure. At least the value of the grain in the bins can't go to zero unlike the purchasing power of the dollar. Land for now is holding up in price as it's seen as a hedge against dollar debasement, however if the credit drys up look out bellow.

[TASFarms]

For those that are interested.

Joel Williams is putting on a two day workshop with Grant Sims and Tom Robinson in Regina on January 16 & 17, 2025. The agenda is impressive for what they intend to cover.

[url]https://integratedsoils.com/principles-practice-soil-health-masterclass-ca/?[/url]

there is more than one way to drop a lot of fertilizer and chemicals off the farm budget

[WiltonRanch]

Looking at soil tests I don’t need to use a lot of fertilizer next year thanks to drought and hail. Still though at these prices I’m spending over $50 an acre on wheat for a decent average yield and accounting for mineralization. With canola I’m conflicted as to cutting back fertilizer. I’ve done so in similar situations and it definitely shows. Probably cut back acres of canola. Interesting times for sure.

[fjlip]

Did $60 /acre fall N + S across the farm. Phos another $24.

[blackpowder]

Rents still going up here.
Canola every acre we can.
Peas have been good to us but a rotation squeeze.
Wheat always has been the dog we're stuck with when nothing else fits. Luckily today we're finding options we didn't have before.
Losing rented acres back to landlord relatives again and this time I don't think I care.
It's got to get a heck of a lot worse before rents go down here.....

[FarmJunkie]

Rents still going up here.
Canola every acre we can.
Peas have been good to us but a rotation squeeze.
Wheat always has been the dog we're stuck with when nothing else fits. Luckily today we're finding options we didn't have before.
Losing rented acres back to landlord relatives again and this time I don't think I care.
It's got to get a heck of a lot worse before rents go down here.....

Just wait til the Verticillium issue shows up in the areas where canola is less of an option. Short canola rotations will make this problem shine even in the fringe areas. We are cutting our canola by a third as it’s just too costly and the yields just haven’t been what they were before rotations got shortened. Seems the seed companies wanna charge out the ass for different seed sizes, an array of shitty seed treatments and no foresight into potential future disease problems so I say they can have less of my money.

[furrowtickler]

Verticillium is a big issue everywhere here now unfortunately
was identified in many fields in NW Sask

[jdg364]

Was listening to linville (fertilizer price guru) this week and he felt that nitrogen had room to climb in the new year.. I guess it’s a good thing we did our fall nh3 and filled a couple bins of 46-00. Just doing some rough math our fertilizer cost will still be $100/ac across the farm for 2025 which doesn’t pencil with today prices.

We were getting into the alpine program (thxs furrow), but that might be one of the fertilizer “luxuries” that gets the axe in 2025.

Talked to a friend at P&H and he said that a lot of $8 wht and $14 cnl was bought 3-6 weeks ago so they were going to be fairly steady shipping grain until Xmas and then the grain book afterwards was pretty small.

Not a lot of land trade via purchase or rent in our area so far this fall but MNP told me that dry land farmland had traded $7000/ac and top rent was $225.. not sure if those numbers even work if you’re growing potatoes.

[Stormin]

This was my last year of farming but for the last two harvests what I did was practically sold the grain right off the combine, luckily I had average yields and the grains graded well so not bad prices but definitely not spring prices. Then I bought Bitcoin and have 4x and 2x my fiat, and spent the winter in Mexico.
Companies are seriously looking at adding Bitcoin to there balance sheets and I have done seriously well by following the big players. Farming give me the lifestyle, Bitcoin made my business prosper.
You have to think how can I make money with what they give me. A super B of oats packaged into 38 gram packages would make you about 1M, but ya ain't gonna get it sellin' to the terminals.

[Old Cowzilla]

Rumors of more downward pressure on soybeans are keeping a lid on any canola rebound so I have been told. Couple of grain co's bringing in corn after Christmas to supply fuel and feed industry. That shuts down at lot of grain buying till spring when they have space again. They don't care how they make money

[Tucker]

Are you really suggesting that farmers dump their grain at what is usually the lowest price of the year and YOLO it all into Bitcoin?? Are you high?

[Hamloc]

Wow have things went wrong in the last two weeks. Received text msg and cnl is back under $13/bu and good wheat is struggling to stay between $7.25-7.50.

Spoke with input supplier and 46-00 was $710, phos $1175, potash $605 and sulfur 610.. take home prices. Things are lining up to not be a very merry Xmas.

Im assuming guys are holding off on grain sales but are any of you booking fert or just hoping prices will solve themselves come spring.

Fertilizer definitely trending upward. End of October I was quoted $685 46-00, $1175 phos, $555 potash, $535 sulfur delivery in early December. I wasn’t impressed but I went ahead and booked it.

Canola seed prices are absolutely disconnected from the market in my opinion. Basf and Dekalb have raised their prices too much in my opinion and Canterra is close behind. I will be going with Pioneer and Croplan varieties. Brevant is also more reasonable with pricing but I didn’t feel the yields were as good with Brevant as with Pioneer and Croplan but it could have been the difference in rain. Lots of neighbours grew Basf around me, their yields were no better but they got to spend more money!! I believe if you buy Basf or Dekalb your simply telling the company go ahead raise your prices and f### me over.

[blackpowder]

Are you really suggesting that farmers dump their grain at what is usually the lowest price of the year and YOLO it all into Bitcoin?? Are you high?

I don't believe that was the intended message at all.