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CWB Name Your Sources Challenge

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    CWB Name Your Sources Challenge

    Charlie asked the questions below in a different posting but I thought it deserved its own thread. Its based on the following CWB release.

    <blockquote>David Anderson, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for the Canadian Wheat Board, claimed Feb. 14 in the House of Commons that western Canadian producers are receiving $1 per bushel less for malting barley than U.S. producers. The Feb. 2 issue of Barley Country, published by the Alberta Barley Commission, makes similar price comparisons.

    In fact, this is not the case. About 75 per cent of the malting barley in the U.S. is contracted before seeding. This means that the vast majority of American malting barley producers are not benefiting from current higher prices for malting barley.

    As well, Mr. Anderson’s price comparison relates a spot price to a pool value. This is not a valid comparison. A pool value is an average of prices achieved over an entire crop year, while a spot price is a price on a particular day. In a rising market, a spot price is by definition higher than a pooled price.

    The relevant question is whether the CWB is capturing the current higher spot prices for malting barley. The answer is yes. Recent higher-priced malting barley sales will be reflected in the 2007-08 pool. In its first Pool Return Outlook for 2007-08, the CWB predicts returns to farmers of $35 per tonne higher than the current malting barley PRO for 2006-07.

    A U.S. comparison: three-quarters of U.S. malting barley is contracted in the spring. The yellow line indicates the price at which most two-row malting barley was contracted in Montana. </blockquote>

    #2
    The release with the accompanying chart [URL="http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/hot/mbprice/"] are here [/URL]

    Comment


      #3
      Charlies questions;

      JUST A CHALLENGE TO ANYONE FROM THE CWB TO PROVIDE THE BACKGROUND/DATA FOR THIS QUOTE.

      FIRST QUESTION, DOES THE CWB SPOT MARKET REFLECTS THE SPECIALTY MALT BARLEY VARIETIES THAT COORS AND ANHEUSER BUSCH CONTRACT AND THE QUALITY SPECIFICATIONS?

      YOU CAN NEVER COMPARE A SPOT MARKET TO ANYTHING UNLESS YOU HAVE THE FACTS.

      SECOND QUESTION, IS WHERE THE 75 % CAME FROM. CAN THE CWB VALIDATE THIS WITH A SOURCE?

      Comment


        #4
        I've got a couple of my own from this paragraph.


        <blockquote> About 75 per cent of the malting barley in the U.S. is contracted before seeding. This means that the vast majority of American malting barley producers are not benefiting from current higher prices for malting barley. </blockquote>

        I too am sceptical of farmers contracting 75% of their production before seeding. Its a pretty big gamble unless there is an act of god clause. Is there one?

        Also did 75% of the producers lock in 100% of their production? The quote sure makes it sound that way.

        Comment


          #5
          Since we're looking at charts have a gander at [URL="http://bp1.blogger.com/_c28b1zhViU0/Rc0BbO_6vOI/AAAAAAAAACA/QS6AKloawS0/s1600-h/barley-price-comparison - February 02, 2007.jpg"]these.[/URL]

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            #6
            Don't believe a word of it. The big bad devious, corrupt, boys/girls at the CWB are just trying to again deceive us by buying our votes away from the grain freedom fighters. Promising to give us malt growers a good price in the future, then again they'll rip the carpet from under our feet and say, so sorry, to bad so sad... Let freedom rain, let freedom rain, we all want the open market to sell our grain! The CWB what a pain. Oh me oh my, how should I vote. Free trade, free trade is good for all. How do we know, cause Mr. Bulroney told us so.

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              #7
              Wouldn't a better comparison be between the average pool price and the overall average of spot prices through the year?

              Comment


                #8
                Burbert its spelled 'reign' not 'rain'.

                Comment


                  #9
                  The comparisons I find most compelling are when the market is flat. Comparing the overall cash price with the overall pool price up til July. Looks like a good $10-15 sometimes $20 difference.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Then there are the cost differences to consider as well as the prices. We know according to the federal grain monitor our barley export costs are out to lunch by at least $20.00 tonne.

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