NO TRAFFIC on Agriville Feb 25/26

[Crestliner]

What happened to all the comments and opinions on Agriville for 2 days. What's up?

[Taiga]

Nothing to talk about I think.

[Crestliner]

I have never seen that in 8 years. I thought my system was froze up.

[agstar77]

Now if the title was farm stress, hmmm. The depressed prices have silenced many.

[TASFarms]

I see more people on Facebook marketing talking about grain prices going down even though stocks are low. How is Ukraine/russia flooding markets. Might aswell throw Turkey in there too with all their durum. Funds are just about at an all time high for short positions

[blackpowder]

3/4 of the traffic on here moved to Rural. The rest on vacay.
This winter would have been the one to retire on.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

How about a marketing related post?
I just looked back at Canadian canola production per year.
Total tonnes maxed out in 2017.
Yield peaked in 2016. 2023 was 13% below the peak.
Acres peaked out in 2017, we have lost a million acres since then.
As it stands currently, 2024 doesn't look promising for moisture. Unless something changes drastically, we probably won't break any records this year.

All wheat production and yield both peaked in 2013.
Acres peaked once in 2013, not to be exceeded until 2023 by a small margin.

One source I looked at has a 10 year trendline yield with a substantial downward slope.

The AFSC Yield magazine just arrived. The highest yielding wheat variety in the province once again was one of the oldest varieties. Granted, it did so with only <7000 acres total.
Looking at risk area 7, which comprises Lacombe, Red Deer, Olds, roughly centered on highway 2. This is the area which has the highest yields most every year. Looking at the top yielding varieties there is a strong correlation between the oldest to newest varieties of CPS and CNHR. With the oldest outperforming the newer varieties. Yet somehow every new variety is x% better than the check, which itself was x% better than the previous check variety ad infinitum. Yet somehow that exponential growth isn't translating into real world growth.

A canola seed salesmen recently told me the latest and greatest varieties are a tough sell when everyone remembers getting better yields with old obsolete varieties for a fraction of the price. No one is breaking any yield records with expensive canola seed. Even in the good areas with good weather there seems to be a glass ceiling. Between the stagnating ( or falling) yields, ever higher seed prices, canola isn't buying any acres.

The grandois production projections of the canola industry are looking increasingly unlikely. And imagine if we were increasing production as fast as they thought we would. We are told there is no demand for canola even at these production levels. What would prices be if we reached their lofty yield goals?

Or am I putting the cart before the horse? We can't build demand when our supply is unreliable, and has underperformed year after year? If you build it they will come?

Were the wet years the anomaly, which we mistakenly took to be the new normal on the semi arid prairie? As we slowly adjust to normal, will the range of water hungry crops shrink, along with yield expectation? Or is this span of drought the exception and we will eventually return to "normal" weather and production will march ever upwards?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I just checked the Canola Council strategic plan from 2014. Which is still valid according to their website.
52 bushels and 26 million Tonnes by 2025. That is 2 years away, and would need to increase production by 42% in 2 years to achieve that production number. In fact we are still below the 2013 baseline used in the strategic plan. 10years later.

The 2013 baseline yield was 40 bu/acre. The average yield in the 10 years since is 38.61 bu/acre.

All the money poured into research, the latest seed technology and genetics, placed with the latest seeding technology, fertilized with all the newest snake oils, protected with ever greater chemistries in pesticides, harvested with ever more efficient combines and methods, bigger, supposedly more efficient farms, all combined haven't gained anything.

Seeing stats such as this, gives a whole new perspective on the communist 5 year plans. If we can't do it with every resource available, highly motivated entrepreneurs, and the free market to motivate us, how could it ever have worked in a command economy? Even the threat of being sent to a gulag or worse can't fix the weather.

Meanwhile, Brazil soybean yields have gained 22% over that same period, while acres grew 50%.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Another marketing related chart. This chart on commodity supercycles was posted on newagtalk, from the bank of Canada.
What I noticed is that until the mid nineties, the agricultural products and livestock had almost perfect correlation while oil and metals marched to their own drums, sometimes completely out of phase from the ags and from each other.
But in later years, they are much closer in phase, except possibly livestock.
Does this reflect the fact that commodities markets became an investment/speculative playground, instead of a price discovery mechanism? In theory, there is very little to connect wheat supply and demand with copper?

[FarmJunkie]

All these markets are fixed. Can’t prove it but everything points to some collusion. Companies too big and too few lead to manipulation. And we producers lose every time. Cheap food policies still in place since I got in this racket. On another note some where along the way the stock market investors gotta take a bath. Otherwise my belief in manipulation holds merit.

[Old Cowzilla]

If you believe the guys to the south of us on agtalk most of them have not sold more than 20% of the 23 crop and some still have some 22 left. Buyers might think there's a year of crop to play with and a cheaper price ahead. Wars,plague,and economic problems around world yet we still feed 8 billion people...........or do we? -20 this morning.

[furrowtickler]

If you believe the guys to the south of us on agtalk most of them have not sold more than 20% of the 23 crop and some still have some 22 left. Buyers might think there's a year of crop to play with and a cheaper price ahead. Wars,plague,and economic problems around world yet we still feed 8 billion people...........or do we? -20 this morning.

Yes that is an issue with unsold grain . Could be burdensome come June / July
temps really dropped

[makar]

-36 in Chinook valley.

[furrowtickler]

-36 in Chinook valley.

Get much snow your way ?

[makar]

Ten inches, had zero.