WTF Wheat taking a fall!

[goalieguy847]

No no no... now we see the panic set in. Now rents will skyrocket because people need to keep or gain land to pay for equipment...
there is a ton of grain left up in our neck of the woods. This is just selling to pay off bills and many countries not able to handle inflation. Its way more hand to mouth grain buying... countries are now more worried about their own food security than ever. The grain supercycle is over... next comes a 4 yr spanking on our own self imposed debt load and spending.
Markets will jump back but people better start thinking of commodity prices from 10 yrs ago and reset their brains on sell points and net revenue.

[furrowtickler]

Definitely going to be a shock to the system for many

[Old Cowzilla]

All we need now is mother nature to throw a curve ball and we will have the makings of the 80's. You guys remember the good old days don't you

[Hamloc]

Certainly will be many, myself included who have not sold the bulk of their canola that will be shaking their head and adding up how many dollars poor marketing has left on the table. On the plus side backgrounding my calves payed off as they sold for 50% more than last year. Glad I still have my cows.

[fjlip]

It's not poor marketing, it's a STRANGE year. USDA outlook "knows" that the 2024 crop will lose money....in February?

Like they were TOLD, or will make it happen? A hell of a lot is unknown till crop is harvested.

IGC says 2024-25 OUTLOOK

• Wheat stockpiles are expected to be slightly tighter than expected last month, with inventories seen at an eight-year low
• Corn area is seen a bit higher y/y, while the barley area is expected to be smaller than average and little changed y/y

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) dropped to its lowest since October 2020, down by 7% m/m. Global total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is forecast to increase by 43m t in 2023/24, to a record 2,310m, as a much larger maize harvest (+71m y/y) more than compensates for declines for some other crops, including wheat (-15m) and barley (-8m). With uptake at a new all-time high, world closing stocks are expected to tighten again, dropping for a seventh year in a row, to 589m t (-7m). Trade is placed 9m t lower y/y, at 419m, including smaller wheat, maize and barley shipments.

Hmmmm?

Shitter lacking backward Russians, will have 3rd bumper crop in a row...not helping prices.

During a war Ukraine exports way MORE than Canada?


Hmmmm?

[furrowtickler]

I guess the “sanctions” were / are useless .
In fact detrimental as Russia found ways around sanctions and now flooding markets with cheap grains and oilseeds .
A lot of told ya so’s showing up now but absolutely no one anywhere predicted this commodity collapse 4 months ago , other the Errol I guess

[wheatking16]

I guess the “sanctions” were / are useless .
In fact detrimental as Russia found ways around sanctions and now flooding markets with cheap grains and oilseeds .
A lot of told ya so’s showing up now but absolutely no one anywhere predicted this commodity collapse 4 months ago , other the Errol I guess

Some have been bearish for the past year and half.

[ColevilleH2S]

I guess the “sanctions” were / are useless...

It sounds like you are under the mistaken impression sanctions on Russia applied to food.

[furrowtickler]

It sounds like you are under the mistaken impression sanctions on Russia applied to food.

Yup guess so .

[fjlip]

Not to food maybe, but sanctions HURT their Ruble, now other countries buy Russian grain at a discount, due to exchange, wrecking out prices....Our own fault.

[LEP]

All we need now is mother nature to throw a curve ball and we will have the makings of the 80's. You guys remember the good old days don't you

Many of us have had those years recently.

[helmsdale]

Many of us have had those years recently.

Here it's been an exercise in going through the motions since '21. South and east it's been one garbage crop after another since '19. Crop insurance with built up averages and respectable commodity prices have at least kept people in the game.

I suspect new crop insurance numbers are going to be dismal.

Even at 80% $'s/ac coverage will likely come in somewhere around:
cwrs @ 22bu area average and $8 = $140
Cwad @ 22bu and $9.50 = $167
Peas @ 33bu and $9.50 = $272
Canola @ 18bu and $12 = $173

That's between $40 and $75 per acre less than last year

[makar]

Many of us have had those years recently.

I could have survived the early 80s with a lot less pain without 24% interest. If that happens again western Canada will not look the same.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

It sounds like you are under the mistaken impression sanctions on Russia applied to food.

Food was exempted. But the theory was that shipping and currency would be the problem. They haven't been so far.
The pundits also thought Russia would destroy Ukraine's agricultural infrastructure. They didn't
The theory I've read recently, is that Russia desperately needed China onside, to keep their economy functioning, and to provide war material.
And China's condition for support was, keep the food flowing from Ukraine to keep prices from blowing up.

[furrowtickler]

Here it's been an exercise in going through the motions since '21. South and east it's been one garbage crop after another since '19. Crop insurance with built up averages and respectable commodity prices have at least kept people in the game.

I suspect new crop insurance numbers are going to be dismal.

Even at 80% $'s/ac coverage will likely come in somewhere around:
cwrs @ 22bu area average and $8 = $140
Cwad @ 22bu and $9.50 = $167
Peas @ 33bu and $9.50 = $272
Canola @ 18bu and $12 = $173

That's between $40 and $75 per acre less than last year

Very few have a clue on the real numbers
thank you for posting
there are many that think we all are guaranteed $1000/ac in this ag industry and it’s not even remotely close for 80% of us