Wheat

[flea beetle]

What is everyone’s sentiment on where the price of wheat is headed? With china’s major purchases of American wheat, can we expect a rise in price from here? My gut tells me to hold on to inventory till March/april, but I have been wrong before, and likely will again????

I know an elevator I don’t normally deal with has been calling about wheat and barley for the last month, trying to get me to sell some. Is that a sign?

[blackpowder]

I would do the opposite of of me. LoL.

I'm trusting in the usual seasonality.
But where the price will be during the "highs" is concerning. I'm "hoping" for them to be above current range.

Here, basis seems to come and go supporting $10 regardless of futures.

[flea beetle]

Yes, $10 seems to be the offer that they say to “put targets in for”

How about you bid $10 and I will decide whether or not to sell for that, is my response. Usually followed by silence, or a befuddled explanation as to why that won’t happen.

Seems to me that chinas crop all getting rained on and downgraded, plus them buying American wheat, should translate into higher prices. But what do I know?

[wheatking16]

Don't trust bear market rallies.

[Guest]

If I could get $10 here would be all over it

[wheatking16]

Yes, $10 seems to be the offer that they say to “put targets in for”

How about you bid $10 and I will decide whether or not to sell for that, is my response. Usually followed by silence, or a befuddled explanation as to why that won’t happen.

Seems to me that chinas crop all getting rained on and downgraded, plus them buying American wheat, should translate into higher prices. But what do I know?

Why are targets always round numbers?

[blackpowder]

Currently $9.21 posted here.

[Guest]

$8.58 here

[flea beetle]

Why are targets always round numbers?

In this case, it is what the grain buyer said to put a target in at. Sounds like they have picked up a couple rounds of targets over the last month at $10.

Why I use round numbers like $10 for targets is because I don’t want $9.99. lol

[furrowtickler]

Farmers in drought area likely need $12 , but can’t hold so are selling whenever it hits $9.50 to $9.75 for cash flow .
Farmers in average areas hoping for over $10 , be a bonus over $11
Farmers in good crop areas are not selling for anything less than $10 , they can “hold”
Farmers that know they got lucky with huge crop and top grades in northern areas are happy as heck when they get over $9 and are selling steady .
great weather to haul , clean up grain bags , tap all bins …. So the wheat is moving at current prices .
only bubble up seems to be when a train needs filling .

very very few selling canola that was not forward contracted . Might be Feb/March before any life .

that’s the just of it from a few grain buyers in this area .

I can’t see wheat getting above $10 locally before new year . After that who knows , near impossible to figure markets out .

[13stripe]

Still early but extremely dry here. Seeded wwht with about 6 inches of semi moist soil. Keep losing moisture as no snow and warmer then normal. Gophers are still out. At some point recovery to an average level of production will be hard to achieve.

[ajl]

In our area, which had a fairly good crop last summer, there are a number of fields that have been taken out of hay and pasture again this fall. I thought all the land was in production already but there was still more to be found. Production costs will have to be lowered to buy market share again just like in times past. Seeing a lot of land in Southeastern AB drought zone up for auction right now. Some of it selling today on RB.

[furrowtickler]

Decent run this afternoon in wheat market

[wmoebis]

Any word on what US grain company is making the sales to China? Any of them in Canada buying either up front or as a third party?

[flea beetle]

Any word on what US grain company is making the sales to China? Any of them in Canada buying either up front or as a third party?

Haven’t heard anything on that front, just that China made their largest single purchase since 2014, and that they are likely to keep buying. Apparently their wheat crop got hammered with rains and is severely downgraded.