ritter

[charliep]

My experience is that marketing is about achieving profit objectives, paying bills on time and managing risk/capturing opportunity. I do forecast for different activities but there is no one in this site that knows the limitations of this process more than I do. So what I try to do is more about positioning than forecasting.

Farmers can position their marketing (based on their business needs) just as easily as the CWB can provide the same service for them. It would be quite all right and logical for a farmer to use the CWB to do this in an open market (their decision).

As an example (others can disagree based on their experience), I use a managed fund to run my RRSP account rather that doing the investing myself. My track record on stocks has not been that bad but there are three things that make it more logical to use a managed fund - discipline (sometimes I lack it - Dr. Jekyl/Mr. Hyde trading type), time (biggest prograstinator on the planet) and knowledge/skill (there are lots of things impacting markets I don't know about/don't have time to research).

The other element that no one seems to talk is moving from a commodity to a product. Farmers can do more to participate in the market place by looking for consumer driven market opportunities. This will be where the real money is in the future.

[parsley]

Now, there's a new one on me charliep

[parsley]

CP, I find it humbling that you don't want the Board to go because you're worried about your fellow man getting hosed. As Parsley said let that man make their own mistakes.

CP, I'm against the CWB, and don't worry I know how to market my grain!!

[cottonpicken]

I guess i take solice in the fact that we are on the cusp of the greatest commodity bull market of all time.

The money the big guys take out of our pockets will be small in relation to what we make.It will be hard to really screw up your marketing plan.

We sure are off to a strong start in tonights trading.

[cottonpicken]

snappy-

Are you aware of the commodity bull?
When did you become aware?
When did you post that you were aware?
Or are you just following what other people say?

[parsley]

snappy,

Listen to what the man said:


"I'll say again farmers should have the right to do what ever they want with their product."

[parsley]

CP, I was aware of this Bull market setting up about a year ago. As to why I didin't post on here, why would I post in Jan/06, when Canola was $5.00/bus that I think by Summer 08 we could see $10.00/bus. Do you know what the response would have been?? No I don't just listen to what other people say. I do have brokers, I subscribe to and value their advice greatly. I've been able to capture on these rallies nicely. But I wouldn't be so bullish on Corn anymore. If oil continues to drop like it is Corn could have a problem. Now I know if Bushie bombs Iran we're back in the money, and if there are any weather scares this Summer we're laughing, but for now I'm taking my longs off.

[cottonpicken]

I know what the response was.
I also know oil is going up not down.
I also know iran is toast.

[HFL]

I KNOW 99% of farmers dont have a clue about market direction.That includes the ones that want to do away with the board.


CP- So the Board knows? Why did they sell a big protion of the Malt barley crop last summer when prices were low? And if the multi nationals are so evil why are they selling half of our grain as acredited exporters? I thought the CWB was protecting us from the multi nationals. I might as well sell my own grain to the multi's and cut out the CWB and their big wages and bounuses. I might make mistakes selling my own grain but there is lots of mistakes being made now and we are paying dearly for them.

[chaffmeister]

Snappy:

CP confuses trading (speculating) with risk management – quite a common mistake. He talks about the high percentage of traders that lose money (I think he said 99% lose money) but in reference to hedging. According to CP, anyone who uses the current run up in prices as a selling opportunity is an idiot. As a speculator, perhaps; as a hedger, absolutely not.

He talked about underwater hedge books – a term used to describe companies that forward sold their production (oil or gold, for example) and investors got pissed off when commodity prices rose but their share prices didn’t. Interestingly, when these hedges work, no one seems to complain. Typically, hedges fulfill their objective – stability and profit. When the underlying market rises making them seem “premature” at best and “misguided” at the worst, it’s investors that misunderstand the role of the hedge that complain. Investors are often more interested in share value than the stability of the firm. Often they’d be better off just buying oil or gold futures.

Applying the concept of underwater hedge books to a farm situation is simply misguided.

Based on what CP has said, he must think oil companies are idiots if they sell anything right now because prices are going higher.

He gets all kinds of other things wrong too. He said “Remember the aussie farmers that got caught?” I assume that he’s talking about AWB. I know personally some of the guys involved – none of them are farmers.

He also says “I KNOW 99% of farmers dont have a clue about market direction. That includes the ones that want to do away with the board.”

I used to work for a company advising large processing and food concerns about risk management. I think CP would be surprised to know that on any given day, we would advise one company to stay short at the same time as telling another to cover – it all had to do with the company’s risk tolerance, financial depth, cost structure, and objectives. Market direction is important – but not nearly as important as many other factors.

I hope that, as a speculator, CP recognizes the importance of risk management and the value of different market sentiments, views and needs. If not for the hedger, from whom would CP buy in order to get long?

He also said: “I'll say again farmers should have the right to do what ever they want with their product.But...if you dont know something.”

Is this to suggest that the CWB can do a better job because farmers don’t know anything about “market direction”? What a joke. If he thinks the CWB would play his game of not forward selling in a bull market he’s the one that “don’t know something”.

Here’s another one: “These multi-nationals are licking their lips waiting for farmers to wade into the futures market.”

I doubt the multinationals are not licking their lips – they’re more likely worried about losing the golden goose. And if the CWB loses its single desk, farmers won’t be wading into the futures market any time soon.

I love this one: “And if anyone here thinks they know the markets-they dont.In 3 and half years i have yet to see anyone make a prediction before the fact.”

That’s right. 3 and a half years of experience is all you really need to be a raving success. Give him a little more time; some day he’ll realize that the most successful traders tend to keep their ideas to themselves.


It's what you learn after you know it all that counts.
(John Wooden)