Monday morning Pro/Con 16/10/06

[crusher]

Wheat and canola may be hitting resistance. I made some small sales to reward the market.

Have a solid plan for wheat by the end of the month because of the Series A signup deadline, new PRO's and the cutoff of basis contracts. I would anticipate the nonboard will disappear for a while after that. Enough said.

[WRAPper]

Sorry Crusher no rhetoric or personal marketing decisions in this thread only facts.......it's now tuesday no more posts here please until next Monday........on a new thread. Thanks

[TOM4CWB]

Crusher;

I'm with you... I can't see how this can last in the short term.

I told myself if we got back to these lofty levels we should sell... if we add the $7.50/t ($233/t)CWB theft value we are at a high going way back on the FPC... but at least we know what our quality is now.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush... it will be hard to keep killing off the Ausie crop over and over!

[AdamSmith]

Use monthly charts to help make next years rotation decisions.

Use weekly charts to help develop a sales plan for your current inventory.

Use daily charts to manage short term pricing objectives.

Once I'm "in the mood to sell" I use a 9 day stochastic indicator to tell me when to pull the trigger" If your in the mood to sell, any time the 9 day stochastic gets above 80 your not going to make a bad decision selling.

Pro
If you have to do any pricing out of Canola in the near future ie within the next week or two the 9 day stochastics are in the mid 80's on the Nov Canola. It's a signal that momentem may be about to stall.


Con

If you wait until %K crosses back over %D using such a short term indicator you may have given back half the rally.

[TOM4CWB]

WRAPper;

I guess your not happy with me either!

I think anyone with a marketing thought... should speak up on Monday decisions!

Let's not discriminate!

[WRAPper]

Tom
Nothing to stop you from having a "Monday musings "thread there big fella.........last I checked you know how to start a new thread. (lol) I just want to try to see if we can have a market news thread once a week nothing against starting other threads with tidbits that are in the thread but there are those on here that come here looking for info only. I think should try and incorporate some of that into agriville without having to wander through the miles and miles and miles of discusssion and personal expertise once in a while, not that I don't enjoy some of the personal decision making and discussions(or at least try) heck I'm guilty as well of posting my "thoughts" too on other thread from time to time as well. Grant me this small indulgence for a couple weeks to see how it develops and I'd appreciate it. I just want to have a try on Monday Mornings you can have the rest of the week ( and every other thread on Mondays.}

[NeilS]

WRAPper

Sorry to have caused you pain.

[melvill]

Canola - pro - Nov canola rallying back to resistance at $320/t.

Wheat - con - Chicago, Minnie selling off hard. Kansas not hit quite so hard. Funds are at it again and rain in the US Plains will benefit hard
red winter emergence and establishment.

[melvill]

Wheat - pro - good quality 58 to 60 lb. non-board wheat delivered to Brooks offered at $171/t or $4.65/bu last Friday.

[melvill]

Canola - pro - rumours of Canadian canola sales to Australia probably related to crop problems down there. Maybe explains recent canola price strength.