Bullish USDA Report

[charliep]

Just a note to get everyone to check their quote screens for the impact of today's USDA report. Wheat and corn futures markets are up hard today. Not all doom and gloom. Will be an interesting summer.

[WRAPper]

Up hard this morning and with seeding rush on there are some o basis on spot canola this morning for any unsold old crop. Net 6.37 in southern Alberta as of 5 minutes ago.
SO what the H do we do with this wheat with the fixed price basis so wide, do we trust it's going to narrow in and take some of the futures at this price? At least the decision is one thats interesting as you say. The highest price has been at seeding for more than on eof the last few years hasn't it?
Have a good day, the crop's really going in quick in this country now that it has dried up a little. I forsee the bulk being in by the may long weekend for sure.

[charliep]

Just a note to make everyone is looking at more issues than just outlook.

I am a chicken so I like to start recommending selling into rallies like this. The other stategy is to ride a rally higher with a trailing stop (let the market ride as far as it can with the commitment to price some on a decline).

My other issues in a rally.

1) Can you start making money at current new crop prices?

2) What are your cash flow needs next fall? How much have you covered through forward contracts? I would like to be in control of my marketing decisions versus making them when a banker/landlord has a gun to my head wanting to get paid and prices are low (potentially) because all my neighbors are delivering for the same reason.

On the CWB note, I would check out the daily price contracts in the historical pricing tool section of the CWB website.
Anyone who has used this program had been able to put some pretty good premiums in their pocket over the CWB expected payments (and fixed price contracts). Still lots of concerns about pricing visibility but is also a much cleaner process that the fixed price contract. My strategy would be a blend of both.