Ammonia shortage and Price

[agstar77]

Any opinions on when the crunch will come. U.S. natural gas is in short supply with the storm cutting off 25 % of the supply. Will they make ammonia or heat homes and make electricity? When corn and wheat farmers look for fertilizer next spring will there be any and at what price. What would a shortfall in in corn and wheat production in the U.S. do to world prices? What about Australia and other exporters? Food or heat and light?

[NeilS]

I watch the Nat gas futures market with trepidation. At the very least, nitrogen will be very expensive in the future. When? It depends on how the fertilizer manufacturers have forward priced their gas supplies among others, and whether they manufacture nitrogen fertilizer, or sell their booked gas for profit, returning the gas to the heating/ generating market as they did a few years ago.

[NeilS]

It looks like Katrina impact will also impede urea imports into U.S.

snip:

"Farmers will have to put off locking in fertilizer prices this fall until the industry gets a better handle on its ability to move fertilizer product following hurricane Katrina. U.S. Gulf port at New Orleans is the primary port of entry for urea imported into North America . The U.S. imports more than 40% of urea about half of the nitrogen used on its farms.

“Katrina is definitely affecting the import of UAN (urea ammonia nitrate) from overseas,” says Dave Braswell, Ag Chemical Sales Manager for Kirby Inland Marine, Houston, Texas. “Currently there are two ships loaded with fertilizer south of New Orleans that can’t get up the river. And there are other ships on the way. Depending on when the river opens up, there is going to be a negative impact on our ability to get fertilizer north.”

The big question is how much the rivers and ports have been silted up, Braswell says. It could be fixed in two days, it could be two months, he adds."

unsnip

full article at:

http://www.agweb.com/get_article.asp?pageid=120566&src=fscrn

[agstar77]

I have heard a quote of 68 cents for N . Why would anyone sell their wheat for 4.00 0r canola for 5.00. Lock the bins after harvest, don't contract wheat or canola. Wait and see. We will never grow crops as cheaply as we have , why sell at a loss? Other countries will soon figure it out.

[charliep]

I am more watching impact on US corn/soybean shipments.

Negative will be less US grain moving to export/lower US prices. There will be more preasure to move grain north.

Positive will be opportunities to replace some of the grain that cannot move. Examples will be feed wheat to Korea/canola to China.

Unknowns are how it will affect movement to other ports (Portland/Seattle and St. Lawrence to name a couple).

The other unknown is the impact of high fuel costs on the transportation sector and depending on how plays out, the crisis that might ensue in the case of a fuel shortage.

Interesting times.

[agstar77]

I would urge all wheat growers to contact the CWB director in their area and ask that the CWB delay new sales until this energy mess sorts itself out. We cannot sell grain at a loss that we cannot replace.

[katoe]

agstar77 Who should I contact about 3.00 peas and 5.50 canola ?

[agstar77]

I guess you are your own. All I can say is if input costs stay where they are and prices don't rise,there will have to be a drastic reduction in acres. How should that happen? Bankruptcy or government sponsered reduction? E-mail your MP and the Minister of Agriculture.

[TOM4CWB]

Full service N/Urea for winter wheat seeding looks to be 45 cents/lb N at some outlets, although some "deals" on old stock can be found on stored fert. stocks.

K2O $275
P205 $430

No body is talking lockin for 2006, does not look possible at this time.

This could be a good opportunity to lock in lower fert. costs by seeding winter wheat.

The seeding can be done on pea or canola stubble between Sept showers!