barley prices?

[cowman]

Anyone want to take a guess what barley prices might be this fall? Not malt but feed barley?
The border is open and the feedlots are hungry to make some money! Looks like a very decent crop in the making...at least in central Alberta? Some incredible canola crops around though...the country was a sea of yellow!
I wonder just what the barley acreage is across the prairies? I wonder if Manitoba waded into barley due to late seeding due to rain?

[TOM4CWB]

Cowman;

http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/agc5136
has good information on recent barley prices.

From indications I get much barley has been booked ahead in Alberta feed lots till well into harvest... there seems to be plenty of old crop wheat and barley left without a home.

Piles of grain on the ground could be a very common sight this year!

[charliep]

Will let others comment on prices. A couple of interesting notes on barley.

1) Manitoba has about 10 % of western Canadian barley acres (about 1 Mln acres seeded verus 10.6 mln acres western Canada). From reports, about 25 % of Manitoba crop area was not seeded/impacted by flooding. Likely doesn't apply to barley to the same extent.

2) I will be listening for the impact of disease (read fusarium) as much as anything in Manitoba. Lots of reports of disease problems in N/S Dakota in the spring wheat tour so I suspect will be problems in Manitoba. Major implications for the hog industry there.

3) US corn yields have been impacted by hot weather. Current estimates by industry something just under 140 bu/acre versus 160 bu/acre last year and a trend yield of 145 bu/acre (also used in last USDA report). This next month's USDA report will have to be watched carefully.

4) Corn imports not likely to be a factor this year. Many question whether $2.50/bu Dec CBT futures is sustainable unless US corn yields get pushed to 130 bu/acre. Using $2.50/bu corn futures plus a 25 cent basis and an 80 cent loonie would result in a track southern Alberta US corn price of Cdn $137.50 or a delivered feedlot of $145 to $150/tonne. Unless feed barley prices rally a lot, likely makes more sense to feed in Canada versus export feeders. Politics/border closed again are the risk factors.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

Charlie what are prices for corn, wheat and barley, delivered to southern manitoba? cash barley around calgary is $98/mt to 102/mt delivered.

[melvill]

Manitoba prices are posted on the Man. Ag. web site at:

www.gov.mb.ca/agriculture/news/markets/grains/index.html

[wd9]

Charlie, what is your take on the 'border opening' effect on barley prices?

[charliep]

Too early to tell right now but I suspect limited in the short term. Between somewhat limited trucking capacity for cattle, extra paper work and cheap feed grain prices here in Alberta, feeders are going to stay home.

My thoughts are feed grain prices are going to stay in the $2.00 to $2.60/bu range depending on where you live in Alberta. Large feed grain supplies (carryin and production) will keep preasure on prices over the next 6 months.

I thought I might highlight currency again. If you look at a monthly corn futures chart (http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CN/M), $2/bu is the cheap end of normal and $2.50/bu is at the expensive end of normal. Recent Dec. futures have been around $2.50/bu and the loonie is worth about 82 cents. Not exact but the Canadian conversion for corn futures is about Cdn $3/bu. When corn was cheap (read closer to $2/bu), the loonie was worth mid 60 cents relative to the US buck. You can work the math but that also translates into $3/bu. The same math works in reverse when US buyers are coming north for feeders or finished cattle.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

anyone interested in selling 48/bu or better feed barley delivered calgary area, off combine movement?

[FarmRanger]

What price are you offering? I have barley that will be ready by the end of August.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

$95/MT DEL LESS 1% DOCKAGE AND BARLEY COMMISSION.