What would you do?

[SmallTimeOperator]

What I struggle to understand is not that canola might drop to $8, as a risk taking business I am ok with that risk as it seems low and if you worry about everything you’ll never do anything. But what if canola drops to $14? You are underwater. $200 rent with current inputs would put you at $600-650 an acre to grow a 40 bushel canola crop. Can you imagine renting land where a 40 bushel canola crop at $14 has you losing $100 an acre. I’m aggressive, I’d love to grow but it definitely won’t be renting land at anywhere close to those rates.

$14 canola is almost a sure thing at some point in the not too distant future. There is a saying that the old top becomes the new bottom. Remember when $10 bucks was the old top, the price everyone was waiting for? Well we blew through that in Dec 2007. But we returned to it a while later, even breaking into the 9s. Well guess what, $14 was the new top, and we blew through that in Jan 2021. And as soon as there is a good crop of canola all across the prairies, we will return to the old top/new bottom of $14 or less. Now I’m no analyst, so take it for what it’s worth.

[GALAXIE500]

A bunch of land moved here for $750-800k per Q. Work out what the financing is on that with todays rates and maybe 10% down payment.

Much more than $200 per acre.

In my area if someone dangled 750-800,000 per 1/4 there would be a LOT of land up for sale!

Personally I would take the $200/acre and enjoy a year or two off, update some of my machinery with someone else's $$$ and take my holiday trailer for an extended road trip in the summer.

Just my opinion.

[Sheepwheat]

In my area if someone dangled 750-800,000 per 1/4 there would be a LOT of land up for sale!

Personally I would take the $200/acre and enjoy a year or two off, update some of my machinery with someone else's $$$ and take my holiday trailer for an extended road trip in the summer.

Just my opinion.

No doubt.

[quadtrac]

RB auction today.
There’s market value established by auction.

[blackpowder]

In my area if someone dangled 750-800,000 per 1/4 there would be a LOT of land up for sale!

Personally I would take the $200/acre and enjoy a year or two off, update some of my machinery with someone else's $$$ and take my holiday trailer for an extended road trip in the summer.

Just my opinion.

Assuming you own enough outright to be viable afterwards.

[GALAXIE500]

Assuming you own enough outright to be viable afterwards.

Yep I do ! Just thinking outside of the box.

[blueversi]

RB auction today.
There’s market value established by auction.

Close to 200 an acre , must be the new normal, landlords will be happy.

[jazz]

In my area if someone dangled 750-800,000 per 1/4 there would be a LOT of land up for sale!

There isnt an an acre for sale here even with that price. You dont understand how committed the big boys are to this game.

[Oliver88]

Close to 200 an acre , must be the new normal, landlords will be happy.

Shellbrook area must have huge yields or different calculators.

[Old Cowzilla]

It all looks like rich fertile land with 6 inches of snow covering it.********