What would you do?

[BTO780]

https://mobile.twitter.com/zeefarmer/status/1601638711959355394

[Sheepwheat]

Two years and the last land I bought would be paid in full. Meaning I bought some for 400 an acre. Pretty simple decision here. Don’t let someone’s insanity cloud your vision.

[jazz]

This cant be real can it. I mean top rents were just at $120 here a couple yrs ago. Now $200.

Somebody making a big bet commodities are going to surge.

[Guest]

79 was just like this
Lost a lotta neighbours in the 80’s
Peering over the edge of the cliff right now
These greedy fellas that get top dollar , then not get paid down the road will be pleading with the “lifers” to farm it for taxes if history repeats
It normally does ?

[bucket]

history has proven, in my experience watching from the sidelines, the best farm operators are the ones that pay the most, and then get the best write downs in the backrooms of the lender.

Why , you may ask. Because the lender that borrowed the money will look bad if they don'r recoup something.

If grain prices drop well below current levels , none of the equipment or land let alone inputs , will make sense. Even on well equity farms.
I remember being told pea prices won't drop below 6 bucks and by harvest they were 4.75 a bushel.
And typically, grain prices drop far sooner than anything else.

[Taiga]

Makes no sense, I can’t see how you would make any money.

[jazz]

Makes no sense, I can’t see how you would make any money.

A bunch of land moved here for $750-800k per Q. Work out what the financing is on that with todays rates and maybe 10% down payment.

Much more than $200 per acre.

[BTO780]

Makes no sense, I can’t see how you would make any money.

$20 canola @ 50
$30 lentils @ 30
$30 chickpeas @ 30
$14 durum @ 50

Math is quite simple actually.

[TASFarms]

$20 canola @ 50
$30 lentils @ 30
$30 chickpeas @ 30
$14 durum @ 50

Math is quite simple actually.

Lentils under 13 bushel/acre
Durum under 35 bushels/acre. Equals a blood bath.

[foragefarmer]

Penciling out returns before it's in the bin can lead to some very tough financial consequence.

Greed and fear will get you every time!

Slow and steady wins the race!

[zeefarmer]

$20 canola @ 50
$30 lentils @ 30
$30 chickpeas @ 30
$14 durum @ 50

Math is quite simple actually.

Average yields are:

35 canola
30 lentils (but can hardly grow them because of aphanomyces)
0 (can't grow chickpeas because of elevation and moisture. Some have tried and have gotten green chickpeas at best)
40-45 durum

[tubs]

I hope they can make money at that because if that is the case I will makes tonnes of cash. I don't like all that extra anymore maybe we all be better off if we do a little less.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

What would I do? I wouldn't judge someone in a completely different area, in a completely different climate growing mostly different crops, who possibly has more insights into potential inflation going forward.

Then, I will be glad that no one has decided that renting land out here in the cold wet swamp is worth nearly as much, yet.

[blackpowder]

Most of the neighbors I lost in the 80s and 90s were too small to survive the margins. Most did not go bankrupt here.
There was an exponential jump in economy of scale. Of course interest rates didn't help anyone. Perhaps I'm splitting hairs between insolvency and bankruptcy.
We might be approaching a similar. I don't know. My bank friend says most operations may mismanage debt but still have high equity. Most of the time iron addiction a factor in problems.
We never had idle acres here at the time. Won't this time either. I only see rents plateauing. Still a fair amount of low cost land leveraging expansion. Operating costs will go down, eventually....
I likely won't be at it long enough to see it go down by much. No bets on 10 years out.
Supply demand still functioning.

[shtferbrains]

Near 200k for renting 6 quarters.

That will clean up a lot of sunsetters.
Might bring more land to market but will be a small group of renters?
Only takes 2.

A gamechanger.