Odd disconnect in price

[Landdownunder]

Chemicals here falling to almost prices of 3 years ago most if not all chess.

And yet Fert is kin stratosphere.

Usually a rough correlation.

[TOM4CWB]

Chemicals here falling to almost prices of 3 years ago most if not all chess.

And yet Fert is kin stratosphere.

Usually a rough correlation.

20% of the worlds ammonium/NH3 comes from Russia.
The principal NH3 pipeline from Russia goes through the Ukraine to port position, which got shut down January 24/22.

Natural Gas is the principal input of Ammonium, the EU and Russia being the bigger % of N supply… plus Belarus is a large potash fertilizer producer on top, being a puppet of Putin not good for trade.

P2O5 with Florida storm has been temporarily reduced.. China reduced phos shipping as well.

They call it supply chain problems!!!
Cheers

[Landdownunder]

20% of the worlds ammonium/NH3 comes from Russia.
The principal NH3 pipeline from Russia goes through the Ukraine to port position, which got shut down January 24/22.

Natural Gas is the principal input of Ammonium, the EU and Russia being the bigger % of N supply… plus Belarus is a large potash fertilizer producer on top, being a puppet of Putin not good for trade.

P2O5 with Florida storm has been temporarily reduced.. China reduced phos shipping as well.

They call it supply chain problems!!!
Cheers

Yeah Tom correct.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thank you tom. Good synopsis of the situation. But back to Mallee's point, natural gas is also the major feedstock and energy source for many of the chemicals, some of which originates from europe, a lot of which originate from China whose energy prices have also been driven up by the current events.
The freight costs have gone down drastically. Which was a big portion of the increases last year.
But the lockdowns in China continue. Chemical prices may have got ahead of themselves, but I doubt any reprieve will be long-lasting.

[Rareearth]

Prices will remain high until those that had the good crops and have good cash flow order their fertilizer and chemicals. They are the premium market and Nutrien will let them set the top end of the market (and margins) then to keep the volumes up they will slowly reduce the price until every one else can find the price points that work.

This will be year 4 for the drought, and its as dry as 1988 and the odds/opportunities for next year are very slim as we would need twice the normal summer precipitation to achieve a average crop.

Fert manufactures are motivated by profit and to keep the shareholders happy. This can only be done with volumes and sales, grow the top line, the margins are masive.

[furrowtickler]

Prices will remain high until those that had the good crops and have good cash flow order their fertilizer and chemicals. They are the premium market and Nutrien will let them set the top end of the market (and margins) then to keep the volumes up they will slowly reduce the price until every one else can find the price points that work.

This will be year 4 for the drought, and its as dry as 1988 and the odds/opportunities for next year are very slim as we would need twice the normal summer precipitation to achieve a average crop.

Fert manufactures are motivated by profit and to keep the shareholders happy. This can only be done with volumes and sales, grow the top line, the margins are masive.

You hit the nail on the head ,

[F4F]

I can’t see Nutrien lowering prices to keep volume up going forward.

[TOM4CWB]

I can’t see Nutrien lowering prices to keep volume up going forward.

Competition can bring prices down. We recently bought next year’s glyphosate for $10.60/L, while the other suppliers said $14:L was cheap and the prices were going up! Instead the next week prices actually were going down &1/L.

Blessings and Salutations

[sawfly1]

Truly we should have some of the lowest N
Costs in the world . With our excess of natural gas trapped in the middle of the continent.
You would think .wouldnt you.
But no , with a monolopy and freight to ports costs and tarrif protection by our govt.s and govt.s reluctantance ever enforce the poor combines / monolpoy laws we do have. .
It is not a free competitive market
In Canada. We just pretend we have one.
The Westons can price fix bread prices for years while blameing farmers. And only get slap on the wrist.
Fert. Manufacturing can get tarrifs put on competition at will.
World megacorps can own every seed we plant. And lease them back to us.
Its an old boys club , with properly compensated politicians, liberal and conservative . They make sure a true free competitive market will never exist.

[foragefarmer]

Prices will remain high until those that had the good crops and have good cash flow order their fertilizer and chemicals. They are the premium market and Nutrien will let them set the top end of the market (and margins) then to keep the volumes up they will slowly reduce the price until every one else can find the price points that work.

This will be year 4 for the drought, and its as dry as 1988 and the odds/opportunities for next year are very slim as we would need twice the normal summer precipitation to achieve a average crop.

Fert manufactures are motivated by profit and to keep the shareholders happy. This can only be done with volumes and sales, grow the top line, the margins are masive.

Not sure how you can predict fertilizer prices coming down with the war waging in Ukraine. This is the same war that is keeping your commodity prices from dropping as well.

Natural gas is not flowing as it needs to be to the manufactures in Europe and many of their plants are closed for that very reason.

The Mississippi River is drying up and moving fertilizer from New Orleans by rail is 3-4x the rate by barge.

Even this past summer Urea prices never really fell as they normally do after seeding. In fact Potash has risen from appox. $600.00/t to over $1000.00/t. since the fall of 2021. I don't know how far your farm is from Esterhazy.

If you were to go back to last summer and early fall (2021) fertilizer threads many on Agriville were predicting fertilizer prices would come down in the spring of 2022. I guess none of them saw Putin's invasion coming. Now the dictator is threatening to use nukes. Farmer's purchasing right now for the spring of 2023 probably learnt their lesson from late summer of 2021 missed fertilizer purchasing opportunity

I bought all my Urea for this fall's application in June based on advice from my dealer, sure glad I listened.

But, hey nothing like rolling the bones on a fertilizer drop for the spring of 2023.