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Where will the diesel fuel come from if we do replace gasoline engines with EV's?

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    Where will the diesel fuel come from if we do replace gasoline engines with EV's?

    As anyone who has bought diesel lately knows, there is a shortage of diesel vs. gasoline coming from refineries world wide right now, causing a large price differential.

    Various reasons for it right now, but as of today, a preponderance of EV's replacing gas engines is not significant enough to matter.

    But the more I learn about crack spreads etc., the more it seems that if we do somehow succeed in adopting EV's to replace passenger vehicles, the lower demand for gasoline is going to make diesel even more scarce, unless we find some replacemente use for the surplus gasoline coming out of refineries. Such as figuring out a viable way to power over the road trucks, and trains and construction equipment and tractors etc. with gasoline like we did a long time ago. Or natural gas, or extension cords and go Electric.

    It seems to me that this problem is only going to get worse going forward.

    Is there any indication that the political class has given this issue any consideration in their grand plans for electric cars?

    Lots of other markets will also be affected, including asphalt, because EV's still need paved roads.

    In the past, I've brought up the looming shortage of Sulphur and all the related products if we phase out fossil fuels, and as we currently transition away from sour oil and gas to sweet.

    In most cases I would say let the free market sort this one out for itself. And without the interventions, subsidies and mandates of governments it would. In the free market, if EV were to capture some noteworthy market share, The price of gasoline would get so cheap, as refineries give it away to keep producing the volume of diesel required to make the world go round, that EV's would become completely cost uncompetitive, and the pendulum would swing back. But this is not the free market.

    If the price incentive is there, can a refinery substantially increase the diesel to gasoline ratio of their output with the same input, or is that fixed?

    #2
    Originally posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    As anyone who has bought diesel lately knows, there is a shortage of diesel vs. gasoline coming from refineries world wide right now, causing a large price differential.

    Various reasons for it right now, but as of today, a preponderance of EV's replacing gas engines is not significant enough to matter.

    But the more I learn about crack spreads etc., the more it seems that if we do somehow succeed in adopting EV's to replace passenger vehicles, the lower demand for gasoline is going to make diesel even more scarce, unless we find some replacemente use for the surplus gasoline coming out of refineries. Such as figuring out a viable way to power over the road trucks, and trains and construction equipment and tractors etc. with gasoline like we did a long time ago. Or natural gas, or extension cords and go Electric.

    It seems to me that this problem is only going to get worse going forward.

    Is there any indication that the political class has given this issue any consideration in their grand plans for electric cars?

    Lots of other markets will also be affected, including asphalt, because EV's still need paved roads.

    In the past, I've brought up the looming shortage of Sulphur and all the related products if we phase out fossil fuels, and as we currently transition away from sour oil and gas to sweet.

    In most cases I would say let the free market sort this one out for itself. And without the interventions, subsidies and mandates of governments it would. In the free market, if EV were to capture some noteworthy market share, The price of gasoline would get so cheap, as refineries give it away to keep producing the volume of diesel required to make the world go round, that EV's would become completely cost uncompetitive, and the pendulum would swing back. But this is not the free market.

    If the price incentive is there, can a refinery substantially increase the diesel to gasoline ratio of their output with the same input, or is that fixed?
    Honeywell is making Diesel and jet fuel out of Ethanol, fast tracking modular processing 1 year startups.
    Syngas, biofuel many different ways to make diesel, won’t be a shortage!

    Comment


      #3
      Originally posted by TOM4CWB View Post
      Honeywell is making Diesel and jet fuel out of Ethanol, fast tracking modular processing 1 year startups.
      Syngas, biofuel many different ways to make diesel, won’t be a shortage!
      That is cold comfort to those about to suffer through a northern hemisphere winter with record low world diesel and distillate inventories.

      Comment


        #4
        I way i calculate it :

        1 bushel canola = 50 pounds
        At 40% oil

        Canola oil 1000 ml( 1 liter) weighs = 2 pounds

        1 bushel canola = 20 liters of oil = 20 pounds


        1 bushel of canola is currently = $20
        If that bushel has 20 litres of oil in it, then the cost is $1.00 per liter

        So if diesel at the pump is $1.50 and pressing your own oil is $1.00 there is money saved

        Then add in the meal revenue

        What is canola meal worth currently?



        Very interesting the the green crowd hasn’t mentioned food vs fuel. More important to save the world than see world population hit 10 billion people.
        Last edited by Rareearth; Oct 15, 2022, 11:10.

        Comment


          #5
          The only thing the 'elites' are thinking of is how to enslave working folk and make their lives as miserable as possible by diminishing them. They don't care how unworkable their plans are just so long as it harms others they consider beneath them. Totally Evil. Globull warming aka 'climate change' is just the cover.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Rareearth View Post
            I way i calculate it :

            Then add in the meal revenue

            What is canola meal worth currently?
            .
            https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/864f86a2-a4cc-4ef6-a1e5-dc07389e4a5d/resource/7a71c453-7220-4904-bd84-cc01a7b58e5e/download/afred-itrb-weekly-crop-market-review-2022-10-14.pdf

            Canola meal = $452.13/MT

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by LWeber View Post
              https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/864f86a2-a4cc-4ef6-a1e5-dc07389e4a5d/resource/7a71c453-7220-4904-bd84-cc01a7b58e5e/download/afred-itrb-weekly-crop-market-review-2022-10-14.pdf

              Canola meal = $452.13/MT
              Thanks for the link.

              And maybe the bush for biodiesel is not entirely unrelated to the diesel shortage.

              Other sources I have read indicate that there's going to be a worldwide glut of soy meal and canola meal compared to the demand if biodiesel and jet fuel actually reaches the stated goals.

              Comment


                #8
                Does the quality of oil for BIO change with the quality of seed? Does too much green or heated make any difference if your going to use it for your own fuel supply? Might cut down on harvest and storage stress/loss too.

                Comment


                  #9
                  So the meal is worth about $10 per bushel, or half of the market value of $20.00 bushel

                  For easy calculation, if the oil value is $1.00 per liter half that cost with the meal revenue and canola bio fuel is .50 cents per liter

                  Comment


                    #10
                    What makes you think we're not going to replace all the Diesel engines with EV's?

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Duracell batteries are my best experience, next was makita 12v tools. Ive driven tesla.

                      600 horse power, at 100% , the gene pool in the urban centers has been deteriorating, and they would never allow EV agriculture where they need it.

                      The next logical technology leap would likely be ( could be) nuclear?

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Google search canola oil presses or expellers.
                        Yes China has 12 ton per day units for $4,000, usa made lots out there

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Rareearth View Post
                          Google search canola oil presses or expellers.
                          Yes China has 12 ton per day units for $4,000, usa made lots out there
                          July 2022 - average canola oil export value - $2,455.63/MT
                          July 2022 - average canola meal export value - $557.25/MT
                          both in Canadian dollars

                          I used to break out actual crush margin. Only a few were interested in getting paid for oil content or concerned about margins.

                          All your check off dollars are watching your backs - nothing to see here.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by ALBERTAFARMER4 View Post
                            What makes you think we're not going to replace all the Diesel engines with EV's?
                            I don’t want to say it will never happen but it will mean a complete rework of the planet’s entire infrastructure for that to happen. Battery tech has improved substantially and continues to do but from what is in the works I do not see anything barring an improvement in infrastructure first. For instance I could see an autonomous ev platform for seeding, spraying etc. Smaller footprint and multiples working in a field vs a large unit. Will still need a three phase power line at the corner of every field and charging station. Seems practical doesn’t it? Stationary operations like mines already involve electric powered loaders in some cases. Instead of chasing the ev one size fits all mentality maybe look at diesel electric drive which reduces fuel consumption 30%, a national emphasis on expanding rail transport again, and convert ocean ships to natural gas.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by LWeber View Post
                              July 2022 - average canola oil export value - $2,455.63/MT
                              July 2022 - average canola meal export value - $557.25/MT
                              both in Canadian dollars

                              I used to break out actual crush margin. Only a few were interested in getting paid for oil content or concerned about margins.

                              All your check off dollars are watching your backs - nothing to see here.
                              Thanks larry
                              Not sure why we (farmers) are so simple
                              You’re the only one that seems to give a shit about farmers
                              We , the farmers , don’t seem to care ?

                              Comment

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