USDA Report Today - May 12/04

[charliep]

USDA published their first crop production forecasts for 2004 world grains and US soybeans. Very preliminary stuff but still worth looking at. My observation is the rather optimistic yield estimates on the US feed grains - not out of line but still need very cooperative weather.

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/waobr/wasde-bb/2004/wasde410.pdf

[rain]

Canadian and US markets taking a hammering today. Lucky for us USDA news was supportive?

[charliep]

What can be said. Perhaps why I have been moving away from forecasting and more to market planning/setting price targets based on profit.

[charliep]

Another ugly day in the soybean/canola futures markets. Still extremely tight world soybean old crop supplies/a summer of weather. A reminder that $10/bu soybeans and $400/tonne canola is expensive.

Perhaps the time for those of you that are looking to offset new crop sales with calls to be paying attention. They are going to be expensive given the volatility in the market. What are others thoughts?

[rain]

Your right Charlie. This action hopefully will make producers open to the idea of puts as well.